I do see your point in that I don’t think any right-handed middle reliever will make $7 million or more per year in a contract this offseason. I really only advocate potentially paying Dotel that because 1) there could be a couple draft picks involved if someone else swoops in with a multi-year deal and 2) the Sox would only be on the hook for one year. Given the fickle nature of relief work, I think that’s a good thing.

Even if there were no draft picks involved, and Dotel was sure to accept arbitration, the choice might look like Dotel at 1-year/$7 million or offering Gonzalez or Soriano something like 3-years/$15 million.

Gonzalez and Soriano might be cheaper per year, but there’s a definite risk that either of those guys gets hurt or loses his stuff in Year 2 of that deal.

Like ChiSoxT said, it really kind of underscores how silly giving Linebrink a four-year deal was, and why I think it’s worth it to overpay to get a talented guy on a one-year pact instead.

Really, there’s no right answer to this as of now. The market can rise and fall for these guys before the Sox have to make a decision. And if Kenny Williams is happy with Tony Pena, and can acquire another guy who he thinks will be fine in middle relief, then maybe they don’t need a Dotel replacement.

If the Sox are confident in that, then maybe that $7 million is better spent on offense. Or the Sox could land a cheap bat and be under budget, making it very worthwhile.

With all of those factors, it’s like I said — there’s no right decision on this right now.

I’m just trying to say it shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion that the Sox should without a doubt decline to offer up arb.

I’ll admit, a bit of those guys might have been a stretch, just trying to get a discussion going. Embree and Baez are a bit, if not way over the hill.

But on the whole, not many of those guys on the list are that much *better* than Dotel per se, but in terms of cost and production, some of them might be better bets. Personally I love Dotel as much as the next guy, I’ve always dug the high K rates etc., but his HR and BB rates are worrisome.

And Chris, you’re right, the better guys (especially with closer reps) like Soriano/Gonzalez/Franklin will most likely not sign a 1-year deal. But I also have no opposition to trying to lock any of them up for a few years. Injuries are a concern with them, but weren’t they for Dotel, too? The White Sox picked up Dotel, a former closer riddled with injuries from 05-07.

So what I see is a similar situation- Offering Dotel would by no means be the end of the world, but if the Sox can get someone like Calero or Benoit, who are discounted versions of Dotel (high k’s, walks, injuries), just as well IMO. If the Sox are looking to spend $7M on an RP like Dotel, might as well get the better version of him (Soriano, Gonzalez).

Kiko Calero has a similar skillset and would probably cost half of what Dotel does. Some of the other guys are slightly worse on balance but cost maybe a few million – clearly better values at that price tag.

Retaining Dotel is paying a premium for a pretty modest gain over readily available talent – exactly the sort of thing the Sox can’t afford to do this offseason.

And if the open market is overpriced, that doesn’t mean the team should go out and overpay. They should spend money elsewhere in parts of the team where they get a better return on the investment.

Dotel plus what Jenks would bring back, if at least one in the trade could work the 7th and 8th or…

Jenks and a 1st or second rounder…

Or Jenks and Dotel until the trade deadline?

I don’t advocate the philosophy that teams should hoard draft picks at all costs when it comes to offering arbitration.

That’s because generally, once you get outside the top 15 picks (which are protected from compensation rules) the level of talent left is about the same as what you can get in the sandwich round, the second round, and even later if you’re willing to pay out an above-slot signing bonus.

So for instance, you wouldn’t really want to offer Jermaine Dye arbitration even though he’d be a Type A free agent, because you could get a guy of the same talent/risk level for maybe $5 million less. Especially if you think he can only DH at this point.

At that point, you’re better off taking the savings and just paying above slot lower in the draft.

I don’t think the Sox save that much money on not offering Dotel arbitration, having him accept and beating them. Especially if you think the Sox need to add another guy on the free agent market to replace Dotel. That could cost them even more, at least in terms of risk if you have to go longer than one year.

But I’ve also said this before. The Sox are a big market team. They should be able risk a couple million to get two more picks in the top 100.

The Sox should be doing that, and paying over slot to try to beef up a farm system that was thin to begin with, but also bled players in the Nick Swisher and Tony Pena deals.

Marshlands — regarding that list of guys:

I think the only guys on that list who are in Dotel’s league talent-wise are Gonzalez and Soriano, and both missed time with injuries in 2008. Park might be if you buy into a half season’s worth of work as a reliever, Hawkins if you think he’s not about to have another bad season or get hurt like he was in 2008. Putz might be if he’s healthy, which he wasn’t this year.

If you want to do a deeper comparison of any of those guys and Dotel, and explain why you think they’ll pitch better in 2010, I’d be interested to read that.

None of those guys, save for Hawkins who is 36 years old, is likely to settle for a 1-year deal.

Bigfun: I also wouldn’t put too much stock in the reliever values at Fangraphs (assuming that’s where you got the $3 million figure for Dotel’s value). That figure in no way represents what relievers cost on the open market.

To make sure I was clear, I understand 1 year/7 million is a little bit of an overpay. But 1) I don’t think it will stop the Sox from filling other holes at other positions; and 2) If you have to get another guy to replace Dotel, and will pay at least 1-year, $5-6 million to get one as good as Dotel (and I think more in years and dollars), you might as well gamble a million or two to maybe see if you can grab two more draft picks.

I think it’s also time to put to bed the notion that when it comes to relievers any guy is capable of being better than anyone else in any given year.

Relievers work in sample sizes so small, it makes it easy to put up a fluky good year or a fluky bad year. That’s how Neal Cotts was so great in 2005, or why Keith Foulke was so bad in May of 2002.

If you want to say that it’s all a crapshoot, and both those guys could have given you the same quality of work, go ahead. But I think there’s a very clear case that those guys had an established level of talent that made them much more or less likely to be able to pitch well going forward from those respective points.

Dotel has pitched well every year he’s been healthy, and the Sox have done a great job keeping him that way. He strikes out more than a guy per inning, and doesn’t walk an alarming number of guys for a power reliever.

Simply, Dotel is a very good bet to keep pitching well. Maybe not for two or three years, but as far as 2010 goes, I think I’d take him over anyone on Marshlands’ list. Especially if it only means a one-year commitment.