We’re getting closer to some real action in Glendale, as Scott Reifert delivered the lineup for Tuesday’s B-game against the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Jared Mitchell, LF
- Jordan Danks, CF
- Tyler Flowers, C
- Dayan Viciedo, 1B
- Josh Kroeger, DH
- Jayson Nix, 2B
- Brent Lillibridge, SS
- Brent Morel, 3B
- Alejandro De Aza, RF
Wow, it just felt good to type numbers in that order. Gavin Floyd, Carlos Torres, Daniel Hudson and Daniel Cabrera are scheduled to pitch.
Anyway, the start of the spring training schedule also marks the start of friendly reminders about how the numbers don’t count. All of them are completely true.
If you need evidence of how spring training stats can mislead, look no further than two players who stood out in Glendale last season:
- Wilson Betemit, who led the White Sox in spring homers (six) and RBI (18) last year.
- Josh Fields, who led the Sox in OBP (.455) and slugging percentage (.638).
One could wring some meaning out of their performances, because they had great Aprils before crashing in May, but one good month doesn’t help much. Jermaine Dye kills this theory, too, because he failed to slug .300 in Arizona, and then he ripped the ball when the regular season rolled around.
But don’t write off every single number you see, because there are two numbers that help.
Walks and strikeouts. At least for hitters lacking a track record.
Brent Lillibridge and Dewayne Wise combined to draw two who walks over 154 plate appearances, while striking out a bunch. That obviously followed them into the season.
Chris Getz, conversely, showed a pretty good balance between the two in the spring. While real major-league pitching made it a bit tougher on both ends, strike zone judgment wasn’t a weakness for him. Gordon Beckham put the bat on the ball in his first spring, and he continued to make contact while being rushed through three levels afterward.
Also, while it’s dealing with two incredibly small sample sizes, Tyler Flowers struck out every other at-bat in both spring training and his major-league call-up. Dayan Viciedo was also hack-happy during his brief spring career, walking once and striking out seven times.
If you’re curious, I put together a chart comparing spring walk/strikeout numbers with regular-season ones below the jump. Click to continue »