Those who frequented this site last year may remember
exchanging questions and answers with Twins blogger Stick and Ball Guy. I liked the concept so much that I'm attempting to expand it to the rest of the AL Central.
We'll start this year's series with Max from the Kansas City Royals blog
Royals Retrospective. He's currently in the midst of ranking
the 100 greatest Royals of all time, an excellent exercise in obscurity, and looks back at
individual seasons and
draft classes as well.
It's a lot of fun to read as a non-Royals fan, if only for the names (
Rusty Meacham,
Bruce Dal Canton and
Pete LaCock, to name a few), and it's the type of site I'd do if I weren't doing this one. Maybe some Sox fan will take up the cause.
He's posted
my answers to his questions on his blog, and now we'll get to his answers to my questions:
No. 1: Trey Hillman seems to have said more right things in the last four months than
past Royals managers have said in the past 10 years. How much
optimism is he providing to fans?Max: Well it's a bit mixed. Initially a lot of casual fans wanted someone with a
connection to the glory years -
Frank White. Personally I love Frank, but that
would have been a huge mistake. Trey seems to have won over the local media by
showing an inclination for OBA, by putting an emphasis on fundamentals (which
honestly, every manager in baseball does) and by saying he's not afraid to
reject conventional wisdom and think outside the box. A lot of people also like
he has a bit of a track record, albeit not in the major leagues. He took over a
last place, small market ballclub that had trouble scoring runs (gee that sounds
familiar) and turned them into a two-time pennant winner.
However, he'll
have to produce with an improvement in the ballclub immediately, or fans will
simply see this as simply rearranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic. It
won't take much, simply a season in which the Royals are sniffing .500 ball, but
he really doesn't really have the luxury of losing 95 games and saying "we're
making progress."
No. 2: I love watching Zack
Greinke pitch – is this the year he finally gets over his mental hurdles
and sticks in the rotation?
Max: Wow, your guess is as good as mine. Talk about a wild card. He certainly gained
confidence as a reliever last year, and he was pretty darn good as a starter too
(3.80 ERA in fourteen starts). He's always going to be a flyball pitcher with a
tendency to give up home runs, but if he can maintain his K-BB numbers, I think
he has a great chance to be a solid #2/#3 type starter with a 4.00 - 4.20 ERA.
He's still a young kid (23), but he's been through a lot already. I saw
an interview with him the other day, and for the first time in his career I
thought he looked and sounded like a man. Not a boy, but a man. I have no idea
if that means anything.
No. 3: After Greinke, Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, how will the back of the rotation pan out
(and would you like it to shape up differently?)?Well they seem committed to Tomko as the fourth starter for reasons that escape
me, and I think the fifth starters role will come down to
John Bale and Jorge de
la Rosa. de la Rosa is out of options, but he'll be 27 in a few weeks, has a
5.85 ERA in 274 major league innings and has pretty much proven he's only
dependable for a few starts at a time before imploding. He actually could be
pretty serviceable as a lefty reliever, but with
Jimmy Gobble,
Ron Mahay, and
minor leaguer
Neal Musser, the Royals are well stocked in that department. He
could be dealt or waived.
I really like
John Bale, although I've only
seen about half a season of him. I think he could be a decent 4.50 - 4.80 ERA
guy with good strikeout numbers, not a bad guy for the back of the rotation.
Tomko has a hot wife, which is about the most I can say for him. He was
just awful last year in a couple of pitchers parks in the NL and should really
have to prove 2007 was a fluke before being handed a rotation job. My guess is
he's in the pen by Memorial Day, and possibly even released by the All-Star
break.
Later in the year I think you can expect
Kyle Davies,
Leo Nunez
and
Luke Hochevar making starts for the Royals. Carlos Rosa is a guy that has
risen through the system quickly and could see a few starts. And they've also
talked about
Joakim Soria being a starter long-term, so you could see him make
some spot starts late in the year.
Hochevar has actually really impressed a lot of coaches this spring. His numbers
in the minors have been less than impressive, especially considering he was the
#1 overall pick in the draft. However, his apologists will tell you his
peripherals were great, and that his pitch selection was limited because the
Royals wanted him to work on certain pitches.
I would guess that [Royals GM] Dayton [Moore]
is sensitive to service time issues, so you may not see Luke come up until June
or so. That's at least how I'd handle it anyway. May as well let the kid have
some minor league success, work on his craft and delay his service clock all at
the same time.
No. 4. The White Sox were reportedly in the hunt for Yasuhiko Yabuta, but the Royals snagged
him. How’s he looking so far?
I haven't heard much about Yabuta which is probably a good sign, because middle
relievers only garner headlines when they mess up. Its hard to say how Yabuta
will perform. The performance of Japanese relievers in the States has really
been all over the map. I'm guardedly optimistic that under the tutelage of
Hillman, Yabuta can have a solid first season. That is, until American hitters
figure him out.
No. 5: The Jose
Guillen signing struck me as unnecessary for the Royals. Am
I wrong?
Well, it was necessary in that they needed to improve the offense, but I would
tend to agree that paying $36 million for a 32 year old corner outfielder known
as a malcontent who hit just .216/.276/.398 a year ago may have been a waste of
resources. But the guy has posted an OPS+ of 115 in four of the last five
seasons. The options on the market weren't that great, and the Royals will have
to overpay to bring players to a franchise with their history of losing. Even if
Guillen is a huge bust, $13 million a season at this point won't actually break
the bank with the Royals. They are swimming in more revenue than ever before,
and most of their young players won't be making good money until
Jose Guillen is
long gone.
No. 6: Who will have the bigger year at the plate – Alex Gordon or Billy Butler?Gordon because he's older and has a full season under his belt. I fully expect
him to have a break out season - .280/.350/.470 25 home runs or so. Butler had a
good start in his half-season in Kansas City, but the power isn't quite there
yet. I suspect he'll have some sophomore struggles as pitchers develop a book on
him, and he may press to hit more power. They're still trying to make him work
at first base, and his struggles defensively may carry over to his bat. Also, no
one has really talks about it much, but this is a kid who isn't exactly in great
shape. It probably won't be an issue until he's closer to 30, but the injury bug
worries me when I see that barrel-shaped trunk of his.
No. 7: How are things going to shake out at first base?Well as I mentioned above, they're trying to make Butler work, but the guy is
about as graceful there as a hippo on roller skates. I think
Ryan Shealy is the
favorite to get the most playing time at first base. He was awful last year, but
this winter he revealed he was hurt for much of the year. I think he can redeem
himself, and he's off to a great start in spring training. He's a much better
fielder too, so it makes sense to play him at first base and DH
Butler.
Dayton inexplicably signed
Ross Gload to a two year deal this
winter. I like Ross, but he's a bench player, and probably a luxury for a team
like the Royals. If he's getting 400-500 plate appearances for you, you're in
trouble. He's also a guy that should be fighting for a job every year, not given
the security of a two-year deal. But he seems to have some sort of hypnotic Jedi
mind trick powers over managers.
Buddy Bell loved him. Trey Hillman has
suggested Gload could be his #3 hitter in the lineup. Think about that - the #3
hitters in the division will be
Travis Hafner,
Gary Sheffield,
Joe Mauer, Jim
Thome and.....
Ross Gload. Yikes.
First baseman/outfielder
Justin Huber
was given virtually no shot of making this club when camp began, but he's hit
really well in spring training, making him hard to ignore. He's never been given
a shot in Kansas City since being named a Texas League batting champ. He's
become a bit of an internet cult hero, both because of his Aussie accent, and
because of his sabermetric-friendly skill set of high OBA, good power numbers.
He's brutal with the glove, and the Royals have pretty much taken the "first
baseman" tag off his former title of "first baseman/outfielder."
With
Jose Guillen likely to be suspended to begin the year due to PED use, and Olivo
also missing time due to a fight last year, Huber could be a candidate to make
the opening day roster as an outfielder and emergency catcher. That could give
him a small window of opportunity to make his case. He is out of options however,
and if the Royals decide he's not in the picture, he'll be either traded or
waived.
No. 8: Are the Royals going to improve their broadcast quality at all?
I’m not talking about the announcers, but the picture clarity.
Yea, it was dreadful last year. Always low quality. Always. The Royals finally
ditched their efforts to develop a regional sports network, which was a shame
because had they invested the capital to do it right, infiltrate the midwestern
states of Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Iowa, and maybe tie-in with
Big 12 sports, they probably could have developed a good moneymaker for the
franchise. Instead they went cheap, which made the organization look even worse
than it really was, no easy task.
This year they just ditched it all and
signed a deal with Fox Sports. FSN will carry all Royals games this year and I
believe many of those games will actually be in HD. Also, Ryan Lefebvre moves
from the radio booth to replace the excitable Bob Davis. Bob, I love ya, but you
belong on Jayhawk radio broadcasts, not screaming in excitement over an Emil
Brown pop-up.
No. 9: How many games will the Royals win, and in what place will they finish?I think this team can improve quite a bit, yet not improve a whole
lot in the standings. Let's face it, the AL Central is a beast. The pitching is
likely to regress a bit, but the offense should have a pretty good improvement.
I think 73-77 wins is probably a good conservative prediction, with the Royals
challenging the Twins for fourth.
No. 10: Can we have Joe Posnanski? You already stole Buddy Bell from us you
monsters. Kansas City is really lucky in the quality of sports writing we get.
The area gave birth to Pos, Bill James, Rob Neyer, John Sickels, as well as
numerous interesting and hilarious blogs. Something about losing year in and
year out brings out quality sports writing.