Saturday, February 09, 2008 - Posts

Shoes and Sox, baby, Sox and shoes

I put The Swish under the microscope for his 2008 preview, and frightened myself in the process.  If anybody would like to reassure me that Nick Swisher will not be Brad Wilkerson with the Rangers, by all means, go right ahead.

Expanding on the preview, we've touched upon what Swisher's versatility in the field and in the batting order could bring to the Sox a few times -- when talking about Swisher and Carlos Quentin's baserunning skills, the Sox's "lack of" leadoff hitters, and most recently, Chicago Pete raised the topic in Jim Thome's preview.

Mark Gonzalez's article on new third base Jeff Cox from a week ago brings the issue to the forefront, because it's possible -- and quite likely -- that we have boarded a completely different train of thought when it comes to lineup construction.  Some excerpts:

And Jeff Cox, who contributed to Oakland's 1980 resurgence under volatile manager Billy Martin, hopes to help Ozzie Guillen's White Sox master the offensive fundamentals this season. [...]

...said Cox, whom Guillen hired to reinforce the "small ball" and baserunning aspects that have eroded since the 2005 World Series season. [...]

Cox ... had 11 sacrifice bunts—more than any Sox player in 2006 or 20007—in only 59 games. "I couldn't hit that well. But [Billy Martin] knew how to utilize the guys who couldn't hit."

There's potentially one incredible divide between how the Sox's roster changes this offseason can affect the makeup of the lineup:

Swisher, Carlos Quentin, question marks in three-fifths of the rotation

We see a lineup of Quentin (.413 OBP in minor-league career) and Swisher (.381 OBP last year) before Jim Thome (.410 OBP) in the first inning, with some combination of Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Josh Fields as the second wave, creating a pitcher-taxing, extra-base-swatting buzzsaw straight out of '77.  John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras will need run support, and considering Ozzie already has Earl Weaver's temper down, we'd hope throwing lineup convention into the wind would follow suit.

Cox, Orlando Cabrera, Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink

From the traditional viewpoint, Cabrera is as well-suited to the No. 2 spot as Nellie Fox was in 1959.  If Cox can show Jerry Owens the finer points of bunting and get Danny Richar to lay one down as well, the Sox can get back to grabbing the early lead with a bullpen better-suited to hold it.

Without compromise, you'd be hard-pressed to find more divergent lineup cards (mouse over it to see the difference):


In fairness to Ozzie, the health of Carlos Quentin will go a long way in determining what kind of attack the Sox can employ.  If Quentin isn't healthy to start the season, or if Owens outplays Quentin handily in Tucson, the Sox will at least have a center fielder with range. It would be hard for me to bat him leadoff, but it could be defensible.

A couple of other, less important questions:

Second base:  I can't see the battle between Danny Richar and Juan Uribe having much impact on anything but the No. 8 and 9 spots, unless Richar vastly improves.

Catcher:  A.J. Pierzynski may have had a down year in 2007, but it could realistically be a catcher entering a steep decline.

Heck, Fields himself is a wild card.  He struck out 125 times last year, but Ozzie slotted him second in exactly half his 100 games last year.  That was likely in order to get him more plate appearances in a game and work on his secondary skills (like bunting, which he struggled with), but Ozzie did recognize the value in getting good hitters up early.

I'm not going to say my idea is better, because it has its flaws.  I tried to minimize the outfield defense issues by slotting Quentin in right, but Swisher instead of Owens in center presents a significant downgrade.  It also could be a GDP factory at times, though the most sloth-like Sox can ground into a 6-4-3 no matter who's running in front of them.

At the very least, it illustrates that Kenny managed to build a team in both directions, in that it's better suited for both Ozzieball and softball.  Guillen hasn't proved to be as flexible with his lineups as he is with his bullpen, but he couldn't do much with what he had last year.

If the moves shake out, Ozzie will have a chance to really shake things up if he so chooses.  He said during SoxFest, "A lot of people say if you fly, you're a good leadoff hitter. That's a plus, but we need a leadoff hitter that can get on base. That was our problem last year.''  It seems out of character for him to say that, but maybe he's greasing the skids for a change in philosophy.