Jim Thome is the
ninth Sox player to be previewed for the 2008 season, and while we're on
the subject of projections, Thome,
like Jose Contreras, is an interesting case.
I appear to be the most optimistic about Thome's 2008, as you'll see in the preview.
That was the case last year as well, and if you'll allow me to toot my own horn again:
Jim Thome
|
AB |
HR |
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
2007 ZiPS
|
434
|
34
|
101 |
.270 |
.407
|
.558 |
.965 |
2007 BJS
|
510
|
38
|
103 |
.263 |
.397 |
.539 |
.937 |
2007 PECOTA
|
365
|
25
|
68 |
.263 |
.385 |
.521 |
.906 |
2007 JCM
|
472
|
37
|
96 |
.275 |
.401 |
.575 |
.976 |
2007 Actual
|
432
|
35
|
96 |
.275 |
.410 |
.563 |
.973 |
"In your face, advanced and complicated mathematical systems!" he says, setting aside the fact that Thome's projection was
one of three that could be described as "close."Turn ahead one year, and some of the projection systems are taking interesting paths. Not so much the Bill James Handbook, which goes with a predictable, slight decline, but the other two are noteworthy:
- ZiPS pegs Thome to hit a wall in 2007, with a .100 drop in OPS. It went from being the most optimistic projection to the most pessimistic.
- PECOTA went from .263/.386/.505 in 2006 to .267/.379/.531 in 2008.
There are a couple elements at play that could take his numbers in both directions:
No. 1: Thome is 37, has a history of nagging injuries in bad places, and has a massive swing that isn't kind to those particular muscles. His stats could take a dive at any point.
No. 2: There's little reason to bat Thome against lefties -- Juan Uribe can play third as Josh Fields slides over to DH, or Jermaine Dye can occupy that spot with Carlos Quentin in right field.
I think the Gentleman Masher will live up to his billing in 2008, but I'm nowhere near confident in that prediction. Good luck in balancing those two factors.