Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Hat tip to South Side Sox and SoxTalk for alerting me to the news from Impacto Deportivo, which says the White Sox and Bartolo Colon have reached a preliminary agreement.  Or, to put it in the words of Google Translator:


I'll reserve full judgment until this report is verified and the terms are disclosed, but my first impression is that this better be a minor-league deal.  Given Colon's health issues and the fact that he's not even close to 100 percent, I don't see how there are more reasons to be optimistic about Colon's future than that of Gavin Floyd, who is out of options.  Nor does John Danks' baptism by fire in the rotation for an entire year seem to be a wise move.

I also can't see him as a viable long reliever, considering his health and that he didn't seem to hit his stride until 50 pitches in or so during his tour with the Sox in 2003.  So unless one of the starters didn't show up to spring training in the "best shape of their lives" -- and seriously, what are the odds of that ever happening? -- the only way signing Colon makes sense is if he starts the season in Charlotte.

But, like I said, there's no point in saying any more until official -- or official-er -- word comes out.  Although I do loves me some fruits.

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Following up on Danks' preview, here are some assorted stats to give Danks' flaws some context:

First PA						Second PA
Pitcher	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pitcher	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Buehrle	270	.192	.246	.332	.576	Vazquez	289	.223	.279	.367	.646
Vazquez	295	.266	.308	.456	.764	Garland	283	.276	.320	.410	.730
Garland	293	.275	.328	.454	.782	Contreras	272	.293	.348	.426	.774
Contreras	295	.288	.366	.440	.806	Buehrle	261	.303	.341	.480	.821
Danks	236	.238	.322	.485	.807	Danks	230	.287	.341	.493	.834
Floyd	130	.267	.323	.517	.840	Floyd	104	.301	.359	.559	.918
Third+ PA						Ahead/Behind
Pitcher	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pitcher	0-1		Pitcher	1-0
Garland	307	.259	.307	.379	.688	Vazquez	.539		JG	.801
Vazquez	298	.236	.281	.409	.690	Buehrle	.618		MB	.805
Buehrle	304	.308	.344	.437	.781	Garland	.675		JV	.854
Contreras	291	.330	.375	.485	.860	Contreras	.710		GF	.871
Floyd	80	.352	.397	.465	.862	Danks	.761		JD	.950
Danks	156	.370	.420	.587	1.007	Floyd	.776		JC	.961

I can't say how much to make of these numbers, but it's kind of fun to look at.  To me, at least.  Some thoughts sorted by pitcher:

Javier Vazquez:  In short, he's the man.  He pretty much enjoyed the opposite experience in 2007 compared to the year before, as he grew stronger as the game went on.  I'm a little surprised by the OPS allowed when he throws a first pitch ball.

Mark Buehrle:  I was a little surprised at how much he shut down hitters through the first turn, and that he owned the highest batting average allowed the second time around.  Thank goodness he doesn't walk many.  I would also think he'd get hit a little harder when he's behind in the count, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Jose Contreras:  Just had a bad season no matter how you slice it.  I think anybody who has watched him knows that he's a much different pitcher when he can put that forkball in the dirt ahead 0-2 or 1-2.

Gavin Floyd:  The reason why his 1-0 count doesn't look all that bad is because his first pitches were hammered.  Four of his 17 homers allowed came that way, and his first-pitch OPS was 1.257.  Vazquez was next-worst at 1.008.  Otherwise, his early shellings basically ruin any chance of looking good in any of these categories.

Jon Garland:  I think people are going to miss him more than they realize.

I'm going to wait a little while before doing Floyd's preview, since a potential Colon signing could gum it all up, but I'd be curious to see how much those numbers changed after returning to the rotation in September and pitching well enough to stay there.  Right now, he's the only guy making Danks look promising by comparison.