posted on Monday, December 01, 2008 2:29 AM by Jim

Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Today marks the arbitration deadline, and the White Sox's plans seem to be fairly predictable:  Offer arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, and pass on everybody else (Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Toby Hall, Horacio Ramirez.

Barring Cabrera accepting it -- and it's hard to imagine a more unlikely scenario unless Cabrera is willing to sacrifice himself to annoy the organization and those around it even more -- that officially makes the Cabrera-Jon Garland trade an unqualified success.  The promise of two draft picks instead of one tipped the scales in the Sox's favor, and it's good to see it come to fruition.

By the way, it's going to be fascinating to see who performs better next year -- Wilson Betemit or Juan Uribe.  Uribe's due for a pay cut while Betemit hits the arbitration circuit, so the costs aren't going to be that different for two very similar ballplayers.

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That will be just one of a few bonus and possibly unwelcome ramifications of the Nick Swisher trade.  Another is the fate of Jermaine Dye, whose name has surfaced in a few trade rumors this weekend.

Dye has been linked most strongly to the Reds:

"I'm not going to comment. But we have talked to the White Sox about some players. Nothing is close."

The way tampering rules work, Jocketty cannot say he's pursuing Dye. But in the case of San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, Jocketty was comfortable shooting down the rumor.

Mark Gonzalez says a possible deal with Cincinnati is complicated by financial matters, whatever that means.  Joining the Reds in the Dye rumors are the Braves, and the Phillies, Rays and Mets have been identified as fits.

I'm having a hard time figuring out how pretty Kenny Williams is sitting right now.  Dye should be attractive, because his $11.5 million salary is not much of a commitment in a bad economy for what could be near-elite production.  But considering how much Williams likes cost certainty, I can't imagine this being that comfortable a situation.

In his latest mailbag, Scott Merkin mentions a Carlos Quentin-type trade as a way to replace Dye if he's sent elsewhere.  Two red flags:
  1. If Williams could acquire young talent that easily, the Sox wouldn't be this old.
  2. Quentin was acquired as a third outfielder at most for 2008.
The Sox suffered in 2006 and 2007 from having Dye and little else in the outfield.  I don't think Williams would put himself in the same situation with Quentin and a hodgepodge of one- and two-tool "talents," so I wonder if Williams might try making a move to shore up a corner spot for the next few years before trading Dye.

That's essentially what happened with the Quentin deal -- he was acquired a month before the Swisher trade as long-term insurance.  It just so happened that he contributed sooner than everybody expected, and to a far greater extent.

Comments

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 10:17 AM by soxfan1
Dye is one of Kenny's favorites so I am a bit surprised if he is the one on the trading block. It feels like a salary dump to me but we will have to see who he gets in return. The Reds aren't exactly loaded unless they are willing to part with Homer Bailey.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 10:57 AM by knoxfire30
Reds have a lot of young talent I would want to get my hands on, especially in the outfield so a Dye trade to them would make some sense.

I dont understand why Dye's contract is an issue, unless maybe the reds want to make the mutual option a team option or something. But if they only want him for 09, they will likely get good production for the dollars they would be spending and they likely pick up some draft pick compensation when he walks.

Any chance Stubbs could be involved in a reds deal???

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 11:19 AM by UribeAuction
KW doesn't play favorites when he's trading--if he did, Rowand wouldn't have been dealt. I don't think he's looking to just dump Dye considering the package he's looking for in return, but if some team ponies up to that price (which isn't going to happen until some free agents finally start signing), he'll take it. If not, it wouldn't surprise me if KW holds on to Dye for 2009, or at least until the trade deadline.

I think Jim's right—an outfield of Q/Owens/Anderson isn't going to cut it. I just hope KW learned his lesson with Grinderstad.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 4:27 PM by Jim Margalus
I don't see Dye being dealt at the deadline unless the Sox are completely out of it. Given the lukewarm interest he received the last time around, the Sox might be better off playing out the string under similar circumstances.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 5:23 PM by knoxfire30
The mets immediately come to mind as a team that made a mistake not picking up Dye last time around and then coming up short. I do agree though I doubt the return at the deadline for a rental of Dye would be better then the draft pick compensation the sox would receive if he walks after 2009.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 5:46 PM by Andrew
Maybe KW could trade Jermaine to Oakland for Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez and Faustino de los Santos.

In all seriousness, I wonder if the Sox have considered selling Dye as a DH, or if teams have approached KW with that intention. Seems like his that's the way his career path is heading, but then again openly admitting his diminished fielding skills may lower his perceived value too much to make the return worth it.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 6:53 PM by Jim Margalus
I don't see any reason to say he can't play the field. He's below-average, and while he may be the worst right fielder according to plus-minus over the last three years, he built up a majority of that badness in '07, when he was playing with one good leg.

It breaks down like this:

2006: -14
2007: -41
2008: -17

He's not good, but he's also not Pat Burrell bad. The only danger is that when he's playing at 90 percent, it affects him more than it would your average right fielder. I think he's got at least one more year before he really becomes a problem.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Monday, December 01, 2008 9:06 PM by knoxfire30
You cant compare Pat Burrell to Jermaine Dye, they play different positions and the NL has basically come to the agreement that left field is their DH spot.

Dye is brutally bad in right, but you can live with him due to his offensive production and the fact he still throws well enough to play out there.

# re: Arbitration day; catching up on Dye rumors

Tuesday, December 02, 2008 1:32 AM by Jim Margalus
And Cabrera was offered arbitration after all.