posted on Monday, November 17, 2008 1:53 AM by Jim

What's your American League MVP ballot?

I know shouldn't care about the MVP award, considering how tenuous the standards are and how little thought some voters actually put into it.

Two years ago, a certain beat writer gave A.J. Pierzynski a 10th-place vote while leaving another catcher who happened to win the batting title completely off the ballot.  This year in the National League, there seem to be enough writers who are considering punishing Albert Pujols for not having as many quality teammates as Ryan Howard to merit an actual debate, despite the fact that Howard finished below the league average in on-base percentage, while Pujols was by far the best.  Once the playing time is prorated, that's a difference of 70 or so outs.

But, as you can probably tell, I do care.  It has ramifications, from trivial (altering the conventional wisdom, which is annoying) to considerable (Hall of Fame voting).  And what frustrates me is that rounding down the field doesn't seem that hard.

Looking at these two questions solve a lot:
  1. Is he the best player on his team?
  2. Is he the best player at his position?
By those two criteria alone, Justin Morneau wouldn't have won the American League MVP in 2006, and Howard wouldn't even be in the picture.

After that point, when you have the best from each team and each position, then it's time to decide "Which one would I most want to have on my team for this season only?"  Coming up big in a pennant race is extra credit only, as it's dumb to punish a guy for not being able to carry extreme amounts of dead weight (see Pujols).

Somehow, though, the success of the team keeps increasing in importance during the discussions despite the fact that everybody will admit that baseball's the team sports where an individual can least affect the outcome of a game.  Pitchers aside, at least.

Using what I consider to be a fairly simple approach, here's what I have.

No. 1:  Joe Mauer.  Look at what he contributed from baseball's toughest position:
  1. Won the batting title.
  2. 633 plate appearances (20th most of any AL catcher in league history)
  3. 84 walks to 50 strikeouts.
  4. Batted .362 with runners in scoring position (and .350 over the last three years).
  5. Eliminated his vulnerability against lefties, improving his OPS more than 250 points.
  6. Caught a staff that maintained its effectiveness despite losing Johan Santana and Pat Neshek.
  7. Threw out 36.3 percent of potential basestealers.
  8. Won the Gold Glove.  I know they can be trivial, but he looked the part.
  9. Scored an outstanding +20 in Bill James' baserunning analysis, taking 30 extra bases to only two outs.
Watch, he'll end up seventh because he only hit nine homers.

No. 2:  Dustin Pedroia:  Second in hitting, first in doubles, first in runs, seventh in extra-base hits, 20-for-21 stealing bases, and though he might not have deserved the Gold Glove, he's an above-average defender at a key position.  If Pedroia wins, that's fine.

No. 3:  Grady Sizemore:  The Indians didn't contend, but it wasn't his fault.  His overall production is tough to beat:  .268/.374/.502, with 77 extra-base hits, 38 stolen bases in 43 attempts, and he plays a good center field to boot.

No. 4:  Kevin Youkilis:  Hit .312/.390/.569 while playing quality defense at both first and third base.  Didn't have one down month, which was important considering many Red Sox were banged-up throughout the year.

No. 5:  Carlos Quentin:  If only he hadn't missed the entire month of September.

No. 6:  Alex Rodriguez:  Another great year with no real weaknesses, although a leg injury broke his string of eight straight seasons with 150+ games and diminished his counting stats a little.

No. 7a:  Cliff Lee:  Roy Halladay beats him in bulk, but 22-3 can't be ignored, even if wins are generally overrated.  He took care of his business.

No. 7b:  Roy Halladay:
  First in innings (by about 20; Lee was second), first in WHIP, first in complete games, second in ERA, third in strikeouts, and led a staff that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

No. 9:  Josh Hamilton:  Set a new personal-best endurance mark at 154 games, and hit .304/.371/.530 while playing center, although poorly.  He did tail off in the second half, as 95 of his league-leading 130 RBI came before the break.

No. 10:  Justin Morneau:  His overall line isn't eye-popping for a mediocre first baseman (.300/.374/.499), but he hit so damn well with runners in scoring position (.348/.443/.602) that he warrants a spot.

It's a shame Major League Baseball has rendered the Hank Aaron Award meaningless by having the results decided by a fan vote.  It could be baseball's version of the Art Ross Trophy, which goes the top scorer in the NHL while the Hart Trophy goes to the Most Valuable Player.  While one player often takes home both trophies, one award clearly considers context and the other doesn't, so the standards for each are far more clear.

Instead, because fans select the Aaron Award winner, it's going to players who don't even believe they should've won it.  That's just great.

Comments

# re: What's your American League MVP ballot?

Monday, November 17, 2008 10:44 AM by MattTheRock
I agree wholeheartedly on the MVP issue. It's something that honestly shouldn't matter, but it does. Here's hoping that Pujols does actually get what he deserves and doesn't fall victim to the Bonds curse, where everyone rightly knows you were the best but they're tired of voting for you. Luckily Pujols doesn't have the bad rep that Bonds have, so with any luck right minded people will give it to him. I do have to say that I am surprised by Neyer's pick of Berkman for the award. I'd be interested to know the rationale there.

Now the AL is a total crapshoot. It should come down to Mauer, Pedroia, and Sizemore, with the edge likely going to Pedroia because he plays in Boston. I'm not crying East Coast bias here because he does deserve it, but the case for Mauer is also very persuasive. I'll root for Mauer, but that's because I'm biased against the East Coast.

Random thought- Justin Gage is making good for himself. Good for him.

# re: What's your American League MVP ballot?

Monday, November 17, 2008 2:21 PM by knoxfire30
Pujols got it in the NL, and deserved it. Can't believe Hanley Ramirez was 11th, probably could have made an arguement for anywhere from 3rd to 5th.

# re: What's your American League MVP ballot?

Monday, November 17, 2008 4:57 PM by jenksycat
I still feel CQ should be a legit contender, but you do make a awfully solid case for Mower Power.

But since CQ won't win it, the only thing I can hope for is that they don't give it to Hamilton. If JH is the AL MVP, they should just get rid of the award all together since it will be meaningless.

# re: What's your American League MVP ballot?

Monday, November 17, 2008 11:00 PM by Jim Margalus
I like how Brad Lidge got three first-place votes in the MVP, but none in the Cy Young Award voting. Not sure how that happens.

Hamilton won't win. The only way he had a chance is if he hit 45 homers or 160 RBI like he was on pace for, and he dropped off considerably. I'm just hoping Morneau doesn't become the worst two-time winner in history.

Gage annoyed me a little during the Bears game. After he caught the TD, he did the "silence the crowd" gesture, which he did plenty of by dropping catches in traffic when he was a Bear. But I'm still rooting for him, as it's great for the school.