Under ordinary circumstances, I'd waste little time getting on my high horse in response to
this Phil Rogers column:
The White Sox don't have a real No. 1 starter, a guy who dominates
teams on his good days and consistently beats them when he's just all
right. Buehrle is a winner but not an intimidator, an ideal No. 2
starter, maybe even No. 3. Danks (12-9) and Floyd (17-8) made huge
strides in 2008 but still have some growing to do if they're going to
get there. [...]
Never count out general manager Ken Williams' desire to improve his
team. Rather than simply counting on Danks or Floyd to become a No. 1
starter, he could try to land one of the young guns who might be made
available this winter: Kansas City's Zack Greinke, San Diego's Jake
Peavy or San Francisco's Matt Cain.
I don't get the obsession. By this definition, the Sox didn't have a No. 1 starter in 2005. The Tampa Bay Rays pushed aside the White Sox with relative ease without a No. 1 of their own.
However, since I began looking at my preseason projections, I'm certainly not beyond reproach myself. And I set the bar pretty low.
All I tried to do this season was top
my total number of accurate projections for the 2007 season: three. But after looking at my estimations of the pitching staff, it'll be an uphill climb to four. Beginning with the starters:
Mark Buehrle:
Mark Buehrle
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 32
| 14-9
| 206 | 219 | 24
| 46 | 113 | 3.88 | 1.28
|
2008 Actual
|
34
|
15-12 |
218.2 |
240
|
22
|
52 |
140 |
3.79
|
1.34
|
How wrong was I? My only mistake was not counting on the Sox to be in contention. Take out Buehrle's two short-rest starts, and here's what he has for 32 outings: 14-11, 204 2/3 innings, 223 hits, 21 homers, 47 walks, 131 strikeouts, 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. I think I nailed this one. Too bad I can't say the same about the rest.
Jose Contreras:
Jose Contreras
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
|
28
|
8-13
|
175 |
199 |
18
|
52 |
119 |
5.31 |
1.43
|
Actual
|
20
|
7-6
|
121 |
130 |
12 |
35 |
70 |
4.54 |
1.36 |
How wrong was I? Rate-wise, not bad. I hit his homer and walk rates exactly, was a little pessimistic on his hit rate, and optimistic about his strikeouts. I even had him missing some time ... but just not enough of it. I did whiff on his ability to stop big innings. He was absolutely solid this year before the injury.
John Danks
John Danks
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 28
| 7-13
| 151 | 169 | 33
| 56 | 121 | 5.90 | 1.41
|
2008 Actual
|
33
|
12-9 |
195 |
182
|
15
|
57 |
159 |
3.32
|
1.23
|
How wrong was I? I've already taken a mulligan on this one thanks to the schedule of previews. If I made the prediction after seeing his cutter at the start of spring training, I would've said a .500 record, 4.40 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30. Still wrong, but at least that would've been respectably wrong.
Gavin Floyd
Gavin Floyd
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 26
| 8-14
| 152 | 171 | 30
| 49 | 109 | 5.39 | 1.45
|
2008 Actual
|
33
|
17-8 |
206.1 |
190
|
30
|
70 |
145 |
3.84
|
1.26
|
How wrong was I? Um ... I got his strikeout rate right!
Javier Vazquez
Javier Vazquez
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 32
| 15-12
| 211 | 201 | 30
| 48 | 205 | 4.08 | 1.18
|
2008 Actual
|
33
|
12-16 |
208.3 |
214
|
25
|
61 |
200 |
4.67
|
1.32
|
How wrong was I? If he ended three starts earlier,
I would've been fine.
Octavio Dotel
Octavio Dotel
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 45
| 3-0
| 46 | 46 | 5
| 14 | 55 | 3.66 | 1.33
|
2008 Actual
|
67
|
4-4 |
67 |
52
|
12
|
29 |
92 |
3.76
|
1.21
|
How wrong was I? Not particularly close on anything but ERA, but not horribly off, either. Despite some painfully frustrating moments, I think everybody had to be pleased with his durability.
Bobby Jenks
Bobby Jenks
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 67
| 4-1
| 66.2 | 41 | 4
| 20 | 60 | 3.32 | 1.23
|
2008 Actual
|
52
|
3-1 |
61.2 |
51
|
3
|
17 |
38 |
2.63
|
1.10
|
How wrong was I? This was basically a misread in all respects but the home run total. He's a hard guy to figure out -- that drop in strikeouts is ominous, although he did find the serious heat at the end of the season.
Scott Linebrink
Scott Linebrink
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 65
| 3-5
| 66 | 70 | 10
| 22 | 54 | 4.15 | 1.39
|
2008 Actual
|
50
|
2-2 |
46.1 |
41
|
8
|
9 |
40 |
3.69
|
1.08
|
How wrong was I? He allowed more homers than even my pessimistic self thought, but cut his walks drastically. Still, I would've been really close if only he tried to tough his way through the bad shoulder a couple more times.
Boone Logan
Boone Logan
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 71
| 2-3
| 54 | 60 | 6
| 20 | 42 | 3.99 | 1.48
|
2008 Actual
|
55
|
2-3 |
42.2 |
57
|
7
|
14 |
42 |
5.95
|
1.68
|
How wrong was I? Ignore the ERA -- I thought most of his damage would come letting inherited runners score and not his own. But he definitely was worse in most respects than I thought he'd be, and I'm definitely going for the over next year.
Mike MacDougal
Mike MacDougal
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 31
| 0-2
| 32 | 33 | 3
| 18 | 26 | 5.22 | 1.60
|
2008 Actual
|
16
|
0-0 |
17 |
16
|
0
|
12 |
12 |
2.12
|
1.65
|
How wrong was I? Not that much, when considering the range of performances MacDougal could've turned in. I only would've had him allowing one homer in hindsight, because keeping the ball in the park is one area in which he consistenly excels. That ERA-WHIP divide is something else.
Nick Masset
Nick Masset
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 10
| 0-1
| 15 | 20 | 1
| 9 | 6 | 6.15 | 1.93
|
2008 Actual
|
32
|
1-0 |
44.2 |
55
|
4
|
21 |
32 |
4.63
|
1.70
|
How wrong was I? OK, I might've let my emotions get out of hand slightly.
Matt Thornton
Matt Thornton
|
G
|
W-L
|
IP
|
H
|
HR |
BB |
K |
ERA
|
WHIP |
2008 JCM
| 66
| 3-3
| 58 | 57 | 5
| 24 | 55 | 4.02 | 1.36
|
2008 Actual
|
74
|
5-3 |
67.1 |
48
|
5
|
19 |
77 |
2.67
|
1.00
|
How wrong was I? Pretty wrong. I thought he'd find a balance between his very good 2006 and somewhat poor 2007. Instead, he delivered the best season of his career by far.
Tomorrow, we'll look at the position players. Here's a teaser: I underestimated Carlos Quentin.