Are the White Sox one starter short?
Before I begin, here's a mildly amusing occurrence. I went to Dunkin' Donuts Thursday morning for a hot cup of coffee before work, and they ended up giving me a hot cup of...
At the very least,
it's funnier than Gordon Beckham's blog. Moving on...
Even though John Danks and Gavin Floyd exceeded about everybody's expectations -- Floyd's buzz cut is proof that even he didn't believe in himself
that much -- the White Sox find themselves in a similar situation as they did at this time last year.
I was slightly miffed early in the 2007 offseason when Kenny Williams dealt Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera, because I figured any upgrade in run prevention from Juan Uribe to Cabrera would be negated and then some by the downgrade from Jon Garland to Floyd. Or Danks. Whichever one turned out worse, really.
We know how silly that looks now. They had more than enough starting pitching, with Floyd and Danks outpitching Garland handily along with Jose Contreras exceeding expectations after a disastrous year.
(Aside: In a season when the division is decided by one game, it makes Contreras' contributions a whole lot more significant. That he rebounded from 2007 with a 101 ERA+ and an 11-9 record in games he started looms extremely large, even if his year was cut short by injury.)
Still, the giant strides by the rotation's two youngest starters still leave some nagging questions.
For Floyd, he's dealing with a career high in innings (206; previous high was 176 2/3 in 2007). He's also the most homer-prone starter of the bunch, and he never quite paid for getting away with some ugly peripherals in the first half of the season. Not that luck always evens out, but it's worth saying.
Danks saw a much more dramatic jump in innings (195; previous high 156 in 2005), and had more in-game endurance issues than Floyd on top of that. He appeared to wear down in the second half before getting a second wind in the last couple weeks of the season, much to everybody's delight.
Going beyond the young guns, there's late-season collapse victim Javier Vazquez and a question mark at fifth starter, right now occupied by Clayton Richard while Contreras tries like hell to rehabilitate his ruptured Achilles. Richard's a bigger "if" than either Danks or Floyd were at this point last season, but he has momentum, with his last start in Yankee Stadium an unqualified success and his solid relief work during the ALDS.
It's a somewhat complicated picture, but I think there are two sides to it.
No. 1: The White Sox need another innings-eater.This is the theory advanced here by some here, most notably Grinder in Training. Not to single him out, but
he summed up the position in a concise fashion in the last thread:
I just
think it really puts a strain on the bullpen to have two guys coming
off years with such a big increase in innings while also having either
a rookie / injury prone pitcher as your number 5. Buehrle's going to
have to pitch a complete game every other start to keep that pen fresh.
There's definitely merit to that, especially if the Twins' youth movement develops as planned and the Indians rebound. It wouldn't be a wise time for the Sox rotation to revert to its 2001-04 shape.
Another starter would push Richard into long-relief work, and he looked pretty comfortable in the swingman role at the end of the season when Guillen pared down his rotation to a four-man version. That theoretically gives aid to a bullpen that saw two key arms spend time on the disabled list while another miraculously avoided the DL after a hot and heavy three-year relationship with it.
That sounds pretty nice, doesn't it?
No. 2: Perhaps Sox fans should learn from last year and relax.Here's a fun stat: Over the last four seasons, White Sox starters have logged the most innings of any team in the American League, averaging 1,032 innings a season. The Cleveland Indians are second at 1,004.
True, last year they finished with only 998, their first time under 1,000. But when you consider the rotation had three question marks and another guy with a flaky reputation to start the season -- and a season-ending injury on top of it -- that's a pretty remarkable output.
As the offense continues to struggle getting everybody functioning at the same time, it's natural to want to wring hands. But the Sox -- at least in the last four years -- seem to have a pretty good handle of what their pitchers are capable of, as they've pushed, pulled, traded and acquired some guys under heavy scrutiny and come out with reputations intact, if not enhanced.
It's a pretty fascinating debate -- especially considering neither argument could've been wrong last year. One name tossed around was Bartolo Colon,
who reportedly joined the Sox until it was revealed ¡Impacto Deportivo! didn't exactly have the greatest sources.
Colon would've fit perfectly on the Sox as his season played out. He spent nearly the entire season in Pawtucket and put up some nice numbers (I even saw him start a game there), but
he bailed on the Red Sox organization at season's end because there wasn't a spot on the playoff roster for him.
Not that the same set of events can be assumed, but as it turned out, Colon would've had the job he'd hoped for during the stretch run if he were transported to the White Sox organization. He probably would've been Clayton Richard -- a shorter and much more rotund Richard.
So based on what we learned from last year, I'm inclined to hope for the same course of action -- explore the extraneous starter route, but don't make it a priority. I don't think it would be smart to invest two years in any of the second-tier free agents out there, which leaves the market pretty bare.
I don't even want to mention the guy whose name rhymes with "Parl Cavano," because continuing to do so would resemble an endorsement, and I have no clue what kind of shape he's in and what his demands are. But that's the kind of low-cost, decent-yield investment the Sox might benefit from the most. Given the pretty optimistic state of the rotation and the holes in the infield, I don't see much reason to make starting position any higher of a priority.
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Arizona Fall League roundup:- Peoria 9, Surprise 1
- Gordon Beckham went 2-for-4 with an RBI, walk and strikeout.
- Carlos Torres worked a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one.