With each on three days' rest, Gavin Floyd and John Danks turned in some of their finest work, staving off the end of the season with brilliant work in what I hope are the final two elimination games the Sox face this season.
Floyd went six tough innings against Detroit, throwing off-speed pitches in unfavorable counts because his fastball wasn't working. He came up with some clutch strikeouts, and when he slipped up by throwing a ball away, he worked past it without any further damage. The Sox offense rewarded his toughness handsomely.
One day later, Danks, pitching on short rest for the first time all season, extracted from his hindquarters the finest performance of his career. Eight innings, no runs, two hits, with only one runner reaching scoring position.
In a year with a lot of fascinating wrinkles, these last two games top the list. The season's hopes rested on the shoulders (and arms) of Floyd and Danks all season. Why stop now?
Before the season started,
I wrote a poetry preview for AOL Fanhouse. The final stanza:
But it's up to Contreras, Danks and Floyd
For Kenny's plan to make an iota of sense
Injuries and pitfalls they'll have to avoid
To surpass Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit
A lot must go right to make any difference.
All three delivered to varying degrees. Contreras' season -- and perhaps career -- were abbreviated by a ruptured Achilles, but the Sox went 11-9 in his starts. Last season, they were 12-20. He had one stretch where
he allowed seven runs over six starts (42 innings), with three of those games against teams currently in the playoffs. It never seemed easy with Contreras, but he did his job, and the Sox do and will miss him.
Still, Floyd and Danks were the lynchpins to the season, and few trusted them, least of all me. I cringe at my projections, although in my defense,
Danks' one came before I saw his cutter in spring training. That was the one pitch he lacked, and had I known it would be ready for primetime, I probably would've revised that ERA down to 4.40 or so. It's not close, either, but it's closer.
(I have no such excuse for
Floyd. I thought he would be in and out of the rotation.)
It's been fun seeing them develop this year in their own ways. Floyd, who got by on a lot of good fortune and unearned runs in the first half, cut down considerably on his nibbling. It didn't make his ERA any prettier, but even if he only manages to be a little bit above-average, he stands a much better chance of sustaining it:
| |
IP |
RA/9 |
BABIP |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
| First half |
111.2 |
4.59 |
.218 |
3.79 |
6.04 |
1.37 |
| Second half |
94.2 |
4.56 |
.304 |
2.19 |
6.65 |
1.24 |
Floyd's first half looked better than it was thanks in large part to a
whopping 15 earned runs, a total Mark Buehrle would find embarrassing.
He only allowed two unearned runs after the break, so when you look at
his average of runs allowed rather than ERA, it provides a lot of
reasons to be encouraged by a second half -- especially as he reached a
career-high in innings and the league became more familiar with him.
The homers will likely always be there for a few reasons. He doesn't
have the most natural movement on his fastball, often loses his arm
slot, and also throws a big curve that can be sent airborne when he
hangs it. Cutting the walks was a huge step in his development, and it
appears that he's done it. The best stat: He walked three or more
batters in half of his first 20 starts, but none of his last 13.
Danks had a different problem: endurance. His peripherals were
sterling across the board, and there's no better example than his home
run rate. Let's just say the cutter lived up to his name, as he
slashed his home run rate by 62 percent from 2007 to 2008.
However, when he reached the seventh inning, all bets were off. He
started missing the mitt with his fastballs, his changeups drifted
higher in the zone, and hitters made him pay. On one hand, it made for
easier managing, because Ozzie Guillen generally understood his
limitations. It did hurt Danks' win total -- not as much as the dearth
of run support, but he could've made his job easier by going an extra
inning.
The only real reason was overthrowing, and that's why I liked watching
Danks throw against Minnesota Tuesday. You could see him battling with
restraint. He hit 95 on the gun, but would drift farther and farther
toward the third-base line after his release. Unlike previous starts,
he caught himself and toned it down, and as Michael Cuddyer said after
the game, he gave the Twins very little to hit.
The bottom line with both pitchers is that their success this season wasn't smoke and mirrors. Floyd's first half was a bit of a mirage, but his he combated an evening of luck with actual improvement. Danks has the greater upside, and appeared to learn from experience. Despite the playoff push, Guillen did a pretty good job of limiting their workloads (Danks especially), so if there is a boatload of regression, I don't think we can point the finger at Ozzie.
If they maintain their performances from this season for the next few, it makes the Sox a helluva lot more formidable than they appeared before the season. Having two average-to-above-average starters making the league minimum saves about $15 to $20 million off the payroll. Contreras' injury is an unfortunate inconvenience and not a crippler. And Kenny Williams doesn't have to throw any more cash at the bullpen if he doesn't want to, either.
Glory could very well be fleeting, as is always the case with pitchers. But that's how amazing Williams' two trades worked out. He already has a pair of steals on his hands even if this is the only good year Danks and Floyd ever have, and there's an abundance of evidence suggesting the best is yet to come.
**********************
A few notes before the playoffs begin:*Joe Cowley has the playoff roster, and here are the non-obvious choices:
- Clayton Richard is your second lefty in the bullpen; Boone Logan and Horacio Ramirez are out of the picture, thankfully.
- Josh Fields is your backup infielder, as he's the only non-Uribe infielder with experience at third.
- Jerry Owens snuck on as a sixth outfielder.
- D.J. Carrasco is the last righty; Mike MacDougal's surge was short-lived.
Carlos Quentin is a remote possibility for the ALCS if the Sox advance, and...
*The Cheat says the Sox will advance! His reasoning is sound.
*Javier Vazquez is the Game 1 starter. No time like the present to shake that reputation.