Determining White Sox trade values
One of the great things about the offseason is that it allows your imagination to run wild.
On the other hand,
sometimes that's not a good thing:
I agree with you Joe on how the Sox need to get faster
and younger. However, they shouldn't get rid of them without some value
back. Trade Javy, OC, and Thome to Padres for Peavy. If he's healthy,
he will be good. Secondly, trade Crede and Griffey to Angels for
Figgins. He's fast and still young. Trade PK and Uribe to Arizona for
Hudson. That would be a good offseason. Plus, the Sox could take chance
on Fukudome, now that Cubs are done with them, he could play Center,
who knows, he could be better in AL, like Josh Hamilton.
This kind of makes me a bit sad, actually, because though Major League Baseball's offseason has yet to begin, we already have a winner for "The Most Absurd Trade Proposal Said or Written With A Straight Face." The layers are incredible:
- Sending $30-35 million worth of declining players -- including one not even under Sox control -- for the 2007 NL Cy Young winner. With the only question being Peavy's health.
- Trading two players not under Sox control and of no interest to the Angels for a guy not under their control.
- Giving away two mildly useful position players for a guy not under Arizona's control.
Add it all up, and of the 10 players involved, five are free agents. And yet while I laugh, it's with a heavy heart. I don't see how anything can compare.
However, please alert me if there's a contender, because if we find out the owner of the above proposal is nine years old, then the competition is wide open again. I wouldn't hold it against a kid -- when I was that age, I thought I would be cracking the White Sox or Oakland rotation by 2002. My control was
that good.
There are a bunch of people who make farcical trade proposals without the excuse of inexperience, though, so I figured it might be a worthwhile exercise to figure out what tradeable White Sox players are worth at this point. And if it isn't worthwhile, it's not like there's a lot to talk about, anyway.
Two disclaimers:
No. 1: I've pared down the list to 36 players. There are some in the rookie leagues and low minors who have shown some potential, but wouldn't be worth talking about because what they might be worth far exceeds what they're worth now, and thus are very unlikely to be traded. The Cheat covered some of them in a minor-league post
yesterday and
today.
No. 2: I wouldn't say that any of these players are truly indisposable, because it's Kenny Williams we're talking about here.
BLOW KENNY AWAY- John Danks
- Carlos Quentin
- Gordon Beckham
- Aaron Poreda
Danks is the most valuable member of the White Sox because he 1) isn't even arbitration-eligible, 2) has no injury history (knock on wood), 3) turned in a non-fluky All Star-caliber season, and 4) is the type of pitcher who can succeed anywhere. The only question mark is pure speculation, in that the unprecedented increase in his workload could lead to
a Fausto Carmona-type setback next year.
Quentin has had surgery on three different parts -- elbow, shoulder and now his wrist. But even if he never punched his bat, he'd be a solid second due to having a few years on Danks. That shouldn't be an insult.
Poreda could fall into the second group, because there is a gap between his stock and Beckham's, through no fault of his own. However, given the rarity of hard-throwing lefties who can start, I see no reason to move him for anything less than an absolute bonanza.
IT'LL COST YOU 5. Alexei Ramirez
6. Bobby Jenks
7. Mark Buehrle
8. Gavin Floyd
9. Nick Swisher
10. Jermaine Dye
11. Matt Thornton
Why are all these players in the same group? The best way I can explain it: They all are highly valuable, but if I heard they were traded, I wouldn't immediately say "
Mother-father!" because they each have question marks.
If Ramirez had a little more patience at the plate, he would probably catapult into that first group due to his ridiculously affordable contract. That said, a wrist injury could transform him into an unremarkable player, because he isn't all that great as a defender or baserunner outside of a few memorable moments.
Buehrle manned up this year beyond belief, but there are reasons why he was often compared to Barry Zito. Any team would want his talent, but a lot of teams wouldn't want his contract, though the Sox were very lucky to sign him to only a four-year deal.
Floyd and Swisher are talented but inconsistent, though their stars are going in different directions right now. Floyd probably needs to repeat his performance to completely clear his name. Thornton's had two great years around one bad year, and is only a reliever.
Dye is the best bet of the bunch, and while he only has one year left, some teams might see that as a bonus, as he probably only has one decent year left as an outfielder. Right now, I see him being the guy dealt to free up the logjam at the corner/DH spot.
YOUNG TALENT WITH SOMETHING TO PROVE
12. Josh Fields
13. Clayton Richard
One year ago, there was no way to justify putting these two next to each other on such a list. But Fields hurt his knee in April and never fully recovered while Richard took advantage of every opportunity handed to him, and there you go.
A lot of Sox fans are burned out on Fields, but I think some teams would love to try to mold him --
the Texas Rangers jump to mind, immediately. Teach him how to hit a fastball and he's a completely new player. Richard is still raw, but showed an ability to adjust after some early beatings. Factor in the left-handedness, and I'm sure a lot of teams would listen.
VETERANS FOR SALE
14. Octavio Dotel
15. Javier Vazquez
16. Jim Thome
Dotel leads this group because he's the kind of guy who deserves one-year contracts. He gets a boost because
the projected Elias free agent place him squarely in the Type A group. The Brewers used that to justify trading for Scott Linebrink a year ago, because although they gave up a couple talented arms, they at least got a couple draft picks in the deal.
(Linebrink, by the way, is a Type B now. Oog.)
Vazquez has two years and $23 million left on his contract, which could be considered anything from a relative bargain to a potential albatross. His no-trade clause is far less prohibitive than Thome's. Thome is only a DH at this point, but production from that position was so poor across the league last year that he could theoretically have suitors. The league-wide OPS at DH has slipped from .819 to .802 to .775 over the last three years.
STUCK WITH THEM, BUT IT COULD BE WORSE
17. Scott Linebrink
18. A.J. Pierzynski
19. Paul Konerko
If Linebrink makes it through a full season in 2009, he jumps to the next group. As it stands, nobody will take on a three-year, $15 million commitment for a reliever with recent shoulder issues.
Pierzynski is far more valuable to the Sox than to anybody else, and Konerko has no-trade rights on top of every other reason why teams wouldn't be interested. However, I wouldn't stick a fork in him yet.
REASONS FOR INTRIGUE
20. Brian Anderson
21. Adam Russell
22. Chris Getz
23. Jerry Owens
24. Mike MacDougal
Anderson provides Gold Glove-caliber defense, and his bat has shown signs of being fourth-outfielder quality. Once again, a team like the Rangers or Phillies might be able to do wonders with that, but unlike with Fields, time isn't on Anderson's side.
Getz could help teams in
a Jamey Carroll sort of way, and Owens was an asset for a month before injuries derailed all momentum. Russell and MacDougal are two pitchers with good arms and control issues, and that MacDougal never allows homers will probably give him two or three more chances to prove himself.
LIMITED UPSIDE, AND FURTHER AWAY
25. John Shelby
26. Lance Broadway
27. Jack Egbert
28. Lucas Harrell
29. Derek Rodriguez
30. Justin Cassell.
31. Cole Armstrong
32. Brandon Allen
In my mind, Shelby ranks much higher on this sort of list than a real prospect list because he's shown a couple above-average tools -- the kind teams think they could work with if they have confidence in teaching some strike zone control. He could drop like a rock if Birmingham's as unkind to him as I fear.
Harrell needs to pitch a full season, and since Rodriguez is a 25-year-old reliever who hasn't reached the majors, he's down here, too. They have better stuff, however, than Broadway and Egbert, whose lack of out pitches led to big setbacks. Cassell could be due for a rude awakening in Charlotte as well for the same reason.
Armstrong and Allen are coming off their first above-average years after lackluster track records. Allen had better year offensively, but Armstrong plays a premium defensive position, whereas Allen reportedly struggles at first.
MASSET THEORY IN PRACTICE
33. Ehren Wassermann
34. Kyle McCulloch
35. Boone Logan
Every team has guys like these -- hell, the Sox had two Wassermanns in Charlotte if you count
Jason Childers. All signs indicate he's more Shingo Takatsu than Chad Bradford, which means he has a fine Triple-A career ahead of him.
McCulloch is basically Nick Masset without any rumors of a 98 m.p.h. fastball. We now know that when you pair him with a talent that belongs in the "Reasons for Intrigue" group, you can get an overpriced, over-the-hill future Hall of Famer to play out of position for a couple months.
Logan continues to be a charming idea gone horribly awry. Though he has a much better arm, he wishes he had Wassermann's ability to pitch.
(If you're unfamiliar with
the Conservation of Masset Theory, it can be boiled down to one sentence:
No matter how much Masset you use up, there is always Masset in your system. It remains Larry's greatest contribution to the world to date.)
DEWON DAY
36. Dewon Day
COMMISSIONER'S OFFICE WOULD BLOCK IT, ANYWAY
37. Jose Contreras
Good luck with your rehab, Count. Maybe
he can pull a Dustin Hermanson and show up in September, giving the crowd a chance to salute a 2005 hero one more time in the final month of his contract.
So that's my stab at arranging the White Sox roster in terms of trade value. I hesitate to suggest what they could bring back in a deal, but a good rule of thumb is that once you get past Dotel-Vazquez-Thome territory, the onus falls on the Sox to sweeten the deal if they want any major-league contributors in return.
Feel free to disagree or add any players I didn't name to the list. I can be swayed to make changes if your argument is good enough, or mine is proved to be bad enough.
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Arizona Fall League roundup:- Peoria 11, Surprise 6
- Derek Rodriguez picked up the win with a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one.
- Cole Armstrong had an RBI single in four at-bats, but struck out twice.