posted on Thursday, October 09, 2008 1:33 AM by Jim

The autumn of their lives

As we continue our post-party cleanup, here are a couple notes on some hitters who didn't ... you know, hit.

First, Paul Konerko wants to be in better shape:

"That's the first time I can say [my body wore down] after 14 professional seasons. So when I go into the off-season, I'm not really worried about my swing or that kind of stuff. I'm more concerned about when it comes to the injury and body stuff that happens."

"I want to get in better shape and control the things I can control because I'm getting older (32), and it snuck up on me."

And if you can weed more dogpiling on Orlando Cabrera, there's a bit about Nick Swisher:

After the 6-2 loss to the Rays, general manager Ken Williams stopped at Swisher's locker, gave him a hug and said, ''Come back next year and start all over again.''

The Cheat filters out the extracurricular stuff for a nice summary of Orlando Cabrera's Sox career.

That said, let's take a quick look at how much you should trust my preseason projections when it comes to offense:

Brian Anderson

Brian Anderson
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 140
 1
 9 .248 .302 .378 .680
2008 Actual
 181
 8
 26 .232 .272 .436 .708

How wrong was I? The development of some power against lefties was a pleasant surprise, but his on-base skills took a hit.

Orlando Cabrera

Orlando Cabrera
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 610
 10
 61 .279 .329 .394 .723
2008 Actual
 661
 8
 57 .281 .334 .371 .705

How wrong was I?  I thought he'd be able to more or less maintain his power numbers while moving to a smaller ballpark, but he ended up with two fewer extra-base hits in 23 more at-bats.  But I think this is close enough to call good.  That's two.

Joe Crede

Joe Crede
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 488
 14
 53 .249 .295 .439 .734
2008 Actual
 335
 17
 55 .248 .314 .460 .774

How wrong was I?  He Linebrinked me, playing well for the first half and not extending an injury-aided decline longer than advised.  He was an All-Star, after all.  That seems like a long time ago.

Jermaine Dye

Jermaine Dye
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 498
 27
 84 .265 .337 .511 .848
2008 Actual
 59034
 96 .292 .344 .541 .885

How wrong was I?  Just a flat-out underestimation across the board -- health, power (he had 41 doubles!) and ability to hit for an average.  I'm getting colder.

Toby Hall

Toby Hall
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 145
 4
 17 .256 .302 .373 .675
2008 Actual 1272
 7 .260 .304 .331 .635

How wrong was I?  I thought he'd regain more power -- while he hit two homers, he only had one more extra base hit (five) in 11 more at-bats.  I'm not going to give myself this one being off 42 points of slugging.

Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 520
 29
 90 .281 .361 .502 .863
2008 Actual 43822
 62 .240 .344 .438 .782

How wrong was I?  Pretty wrong.

Pablo Ozuna

Pablo Ozuna
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 165
 0
 7 .251 .295 .322 .617
2008 Actual 640
 6 .281 .313 .328 .641

How wrong was I?  He actually played well enough for people to complain about him being cut.  I figured he would 1) play worse and 2) hang around longer, so color me pleasantly surprised on both counts.

A.J. Pierzynski

A.J. Pierzynski
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 460
 14
 57 .269 .315 .419 .734
2008 Actual
 53413
 60 .281 .312 .416 .728

How wrong was I?  That's three correct projections.  Got his overall effectiveness, though I was bearish on his ability to hit for doubles and bullish on his patience.

Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 333
 12
 48 .266 .344 .451 .795
2008 Actual 48036
 100 .288 .394 .571 .965

How wrong was I?  I beat PECOTA.

Alexei Ramirez

Alexei Ramirez
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 388
 6
 45 .263 .307 .396 .703
2008 Actual 48021
 77 .290 .317 .475 782

How wrong was I?  PECOTA beat me.  I was close on his on-base percentage, which is really a testament to his aggression at the plate.

Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 522
 36
 101 .268 .390 .512 .902
2008 Actual 49724
 69 .219 .332 .410 .742
2006 BW
 56515
 44 .222 .306 .422 .728

How wrong was I?  The third line is Brad Wilkerson's 2006 season.  I give myself a half-point.

Jim Thome

Jim Thome
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM 419
 30
 94 .272 .401 .539 .940
2008 Actual 50334
 90 .245 .362 .503 .865

How wrong was I?  I figured Swisher's presence would allow Thome more days off against lefties, which would soften his decline due to a platoon advantage. As it turned out, he managed to reverse course against southpaws while suffering some against righties.  Oh well.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe
 AB HR RBI
 BA
 OBP SLG OPS
2008 JCM
 402
 15
 44 .242 .287 .402 .689
2008 Actual 3247
 40 .247 .296 .386 .682

How wrong was I?  Like Pierzynski, Uribe traded a few homers for a good chunk of doubles.  I'll take it, and now I can claim my projection system is "50 percent more accurate!"

*******************

Arizona Fall League roundup (it's back!):
  • Peoria 10, Scottsdale 7
    • Gordon Beckham went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored in his first fall game.
    • Aaron Poreda struck out two in a shutout inning, but also allowed two hits.
    • Carlos Torres picked up the win despite allowing a run on two hits over 1 1/3 innings.
And action from Opening Day Tuesday:
  • Peoria 9, Scottsdale 3
    • Cole Armstrong made his only hit in five at-bats count -- a bases-clearing double.
    • Derek Rodriguez struck out two and walked one in a scoreless inning.

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