posted on Wednesday, October 08, 2008 12:31 AM by Jim

A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Under ordinary circumstances, I'd waste little time getting on my high horse in response to this Phil Rogers column:

The White Sox don't have a real No. 1 starter, a guy who dominates teams on his good days and consistently beats them when he's just all right. Buehrle is a winner but not an intimidator, an ideal No. 2 starter, maybe even No. 3. Danks (12-9) and Floyd (17-8) made huge strides in 2008 but still have some growing to do if they're going to get there. [...]

Never count out general manager Ken Williams' desire to improve his team. Rather than simply counting on Danks or Floyd to become a No. 1 starter, he could try to land one of the young guns who might be made available this winter: Kansas City's Zack Greinke, San Diego's Jake Peavy or San Francisco's Matt Cain.

I don't get the obsession.  By this definition, the Sox didn't have a No. 1 starter in 2005.  The Tampa Bay Rays pushed aside the White Sox with relative ease without a No. 1 of their own.

However, since I began looking at my preseason projections, I'm certainly not beyond reproach myself.  And I set the bar pretty low.

All I tried to do this season was top my total number of accurate projections for the 2007 season: three.  But after looking at my estimations of the pitching staff, it'll be an uphill climb to four.  Beginning with the starters:

Mark Buehrle:

Mark Buehrle
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
32
14-9
20621924
461133.881.28
2008 Actual
 34
 15-12 218.2 240
 22
 52 140 3.79
 1.34

How wrong was I?  My only mistake was not counting on the Sox to be in contention.  Take out Buehrle's two short-rest starts, and here's what he has for 32 outings: 14-11, 204 2/3 innings, 223 hits, 21 homers, 47 walks, 131 strikeouts, 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP.  I think I nailed this one.  Too bad I can't say the same about the rest.

Jose Contreras:

Jose Contreras
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
 28
 8-13
 175 199 18
 52 119 5.31 1.43
Actual
 20
 7-6
 121 130 12 35 70 4.54 1.36

How wrong was I?  Rate-wise, not bad.  I hit his homer and walk rates exactly, was a little pessimistic on his hit rate, and optimistic about his strikeouts.  I even had him missing some time ... but just not enough of it.  I did whiff on his ability to stop big innings.  He was absolutely solid this year before the injury.

John Danks

John Danks
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
28
7-13
15116933
561215.901.41
2008 Actual
 33
 12-9 195 182
 15
 57 159 3.32
 1.23

How wrong was I?  I've already taken a mulligan on this one thanks to the schedule of previews.  If I made the prediction after seeing his cutter at the start of spring training, I would've said a .500 record, 4.40 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30.  Still wrong, but at least that would've been respectably wrong.

Gavin Floyd

Gavin Floyd
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
26
8-14
15217130
491095.391.45
2008 Actual
 33
 17-8 206.1 190
 30
 70 145 3.84
 1.26

How wrong was I?  Um ... I got his strikeout rate right!

Javier Vazquez

Javier Vazquez
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
32
15-12
21120130
482054.081.18
2008 Actual
 33
 12-16 208.3 214
 25
 61 200 4.67
 1.32

How wrong was I?  If he ended three starts earlier, I would've been fine.

Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
45
3-0
46465
14553.661.33
2008 Actual
 67
 4-4 67 52
 12
 29 92 3.76
 1.21

How wrong was I?  Not particularly close on anything but ERA, but not horribly off, either.  Despite some painfully frustrating moments, I think everybody had to be pleased with his durability.

Bobby Jenks

Bobby Jenks
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
67
4-1
66.2414
20603.321.23
2008 Actual
 52
 3-1 61.2 51
 3
 17 38 2.63
 1.10

How wrong was I?  This was basically a misread in all respects but the home run total.  He's a hard guy to figure out -- that drop in strikeouts is ominous, although he did find the serious heat at the end of the season.

Scott Linebrink

Scott Linebrink
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
65
3-5
667010
22544.151.39
2008 Actual
 50
 2-2 46.1 41
 8
 9 40 3.69
 1.08

How wrong was I?  He allowed more homers than even my pessimistic self thought, but cut his walks drastically.  Still, I would've been really close if only he tried to tough his way through the bad shoulder a couple more times.

Boone Logan

Boone Logan
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
71
2-3
54606
20423.991.48
2008 Actual
 55
 2-3 42.2 57
 7
 14 42 5.95
 1.68

How wrong was I?  Ignore the ERA -- I thought most of his damage would come letting inherited runners score and not his own.  But he definitely was worse in most respects than I thought he'd be, and I'm definitely going for the over next year.

Mike MacDougal

Mike MacDougal
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
31
0-2
32333
18265.221.60
2008 Actual
 16
 0-0 17 16
 0
 12 12 2.12
 1.65

How wrong was I?  Not that much, when considering the range of performances MacDougal could've turned in.  I only would've had him allowing one homer in hindsight, because keeping the ball in the park is one area in which he consistenly excels.  That ERA-WHIP divide is something else.

Nick Masset

Nick Masset
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
10
0-1
15201
966.151.93
2008 Actual
 32
 1-0 44.2 55
 4
 21 32 4.63
 1.70

How wrong was I?  OK, I might've let my emotions get out of hand slightly.

Matt Thornton

Matt Thornton
 G
 W-L
 IP
 H
 HR BB K ERA
 WHIP
2008 JCM
66
3-3
58575
24554.021.36
2008 Actual
 74
 5-3 67.1 48
 5
 19 77 2.67
 1.00

How wrong was I?  Pretty wrong.  I thought he'd find a balance between his very good 2006 and somewhat poor 2007.  Instead, he delivered the best season of his career by far.

Tomorrow, we'll look at the position players.  Here's a teaser:  I underestimated Carlos Quentin.

Comments

# re: A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 11:29 AM by Fundman
Don't beat yourself up - I thought Floyd would collapse down the stretch and said so in the comments on your projections in July. Re: MacDougal, his era was so much lower because Ozzie gave him the quick hook and followed up with Thornton, Linebrink, and Dotel who were firing darts in the first half.

And re: position players, you protected yourself with a caveat about Swisher during the write-up if memory serves.

# re: A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 4:05 PM by Jim Margalus
Fun fact: MacDougal became the 25th pitcher in MLB history to have a WHIP above 1.60, and an ERA of 2.12 or lower for more than 10 innings.

Jose Rijo had the same ERA and WHIP as MacDougal over 17 innings during his famed comeback, when he returned to the Reds after being out of the game long enough to receive HOF votes.

# re: A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 5:10 PM by The6thJackson
After sitting in the corner and thinking for a while (ha ha), i realized why i want tavarez from colorado for vazquez. Because he is the best you can get for an underperforming, overpaid pitcher. I realize we arent going to score a guy like ichiro or torri hunter for a guy like vazquez. i thought vazquez would be way better and looking at his actual numbers makes me hate him more. i probably would trade him for some of that corn at the sox game. If we got anything more than that we would be in the bonus!

# re: A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Wednesday, October 08, 2008 11:59 PM by Jim Margalus
If he's the best you can get, then you don't trade Vazquez. But they're not going to settle for a crappy veteran. If anything, they'd do what they did with the Garcia-Floyd trade -- look for a talented pitcher in need of a change of scenery.

You don't trade a guy who can throw 200 innings of league-average pitching for Jerry Owens.

# re: A whole lot of wrongness about pitching

Thursday, October 09, 2008 9:23 AM by MattTheRock
And not to pile on, but Tavares is on the way out in Colorado. He's never been exactly the key to the lineup out here, and if you were to offer a slightly above league average pitcher like Vasquez for him, you'd be overpaying by an extreme amount. Willy T is barely a fourth outfielder on a good team. He's Alex Sanchez with the roids.

Vasquez has more value than you think. He's miscast as a #2 starter. In a perfect world, he's a #3 or #4. Personally I think the Sox would be nuts to trade him unless the offer is incredible, but we'll see.