October 2008 - Posts

Parsing Kenny Williams' annual preamble

Kenny Williams addressed the media upon the unofficial official beginning of the MLB offseason, but before we start analyzing his words (which he loves), let's look at what came out of his conference last season.

Here was the key part of his statement:

"So that's why it's not necessarily the personnel, in terms of the splashy move, maybe just a fit kind of thing.  It might turn out that fit is also the big-name type player, but we're setting out to find the answers. We've missed a little bit of that grind and edge and we've got to get that back."

And you could say he accomplished that.  My biggest concern was that "grind and edge" ruled out talented players (coughERSTADcough), but he ended up reeling in three definite upgrades (although Nick Swisher, the "big-name type player," didn't hold up his end of the bargain). 

Then again, Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Quentin didn't exactly bring "grind and edge" themselves.  Cabrera immediately found himself in the manager's doghouse, then spent the rest of the time in the media doghouse.  Quentin, meanwhile, transcended grinderdom and entered the realm of the obsessed and/or single-minded.  I'll take it.

Williams did give one message that ended up mixed -- an endorsement of Juan Uribe.  He called ¡Profundo! a "championship-type shortstop," but Uribe only spent 15 innings at that position

So with that in mind, let's take a look at Williams' 2008 address.

The overarching theme:

"There's nothing wrong with going young if you are good," Williams said. "If there's one thing that I hope doesn't get lost in translation, it's that we still expect to compete for a championship. We might be doing it to a younger degree, with a team that's more athletic and potentially more exciting."

The youth talk centers on Chris Getz and Josh Fields, who are penciled into the starting jobs with the softest of lead at this point.  Williams gave an endorsement of sorts to both of them:

On Getz:  "If you don't reward guys like Chris Getz for playing the game the right way, unselfishly and hard-nosed every day, what does that say to your scouts and player development personnel who are out there teaching fundamentals to 175 Minor League players"

On Fields:  "The only reason [Fields] couldn't step in when Joe Crede went down was because he was beaten up, really playing on one leg. That doesn't shake my feelings of the caliber of player that he is. "Josh proved he's a big leaguer in 2006. Do we want him to get better at third base? Yeah, but that naturally will happen because he will be playing 2009 on two legs."

(By the way, the photo on the MLB.com story once again shows Fields and the world's tiniest glove.)

So proceeding with the opinion that Williams doesn't intentionally mislead with his statements, do you see a situation in which the Sox open the season with Fields and Getz both starting?

I'm finding that difficult.  At the same time, I'm having a hard time envisioning a scenario in which the Sox get dramatically younger by going outside the organization.

One reason why is because the White Sox generally trust unproven pitchers far more than unproven hitters, which is a little backwards compared to conventional wisdom, whatever that's worth.  (That could be an illustration of the difference in coaching ability between Don Cooper and Greg Walker, but that ship has sailed.)

Really, Quentin was the only young hitter the Sox traded for with the intent of starting, although perhaps not as early as he did.  The other under-30 guys have been established players with favorable contracts, along the lines of Swisher or Rob Mackowiak.

But could it be possible that the Quentin trade marks a change in philosophy?  The Sox have been redeveloping other teams' No. 1 draft picks for years in the pitching department (Matt Thornton, Gavin Floyd, John Danks), so it's not out of the question that the Sox could cycle younger by that route with the rest of the roster.

One example trade off the top of my head: Javier Vazquez for Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks.  Two underperforming guys whose strengths (durability for Vazquez, athleticism for Weeks) are needed enough by the clubs in question to make up for their maddening inconsistency.  Weeks was the second overall pick in 2003 who might need a change of scenery to get out of his rut, while Vazquez could benefit by a move to a pretty weak division, Cubs aside.

I don't want to give this particular proposal too much attention because 1) it's only based on superficial needs, so therefore 2) I don't know if I like it, and 3) since I mentioned it, it won't happen anyway.  But I throw it out there as merely a way of assessing possible targets that could give Williams his goal of getting younger while staying competitive.

Like last year, I see most of Williams' objectives staying consistent throughout the offseason. However, no matter how optimistically I assess it, Getz/Fields strikes me as a spot too soft to ignore.

Update:  After posting this, I saw Joe Cowley's article which says Vazquez is likely on his way out.  He suggests Chone Figgins or Brian Roberts as possible returns, but I don't get the point of wasting him on a one-year rental.  That's what lame ducks like Jon Garland are for.

Speculation aside, Cowley has a good quote from Toby Hall, after the Sox declined his option.

Additionally, Chris De Luca lists the following players as targets:  Roberts, Figgins, Coco Crisp, Orlando Hudson.  I'm not feeling it.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria 3, Surprise 2
    • Gordon Beckham singled and drew two walks in three plate appearances, scoring once.
    • Carlos Torres picked up the win with a scoreless inning, although he walked two.

Griffey out; Hall halfway there

The White Sox officially declined options on Ken Griffey Jr. and Toby Hall.

The reason Hall is only halfway gone is because signing him for a contract less than his $2.25 million is a very real possibility -- maybe even the likeliest scenario.  That's basically what they did with Juan Uribe last season, who, like Hall, underperformed his contract yet was a better bet to provide value than any other free agent possibility.

With Uribe, however, they worked it out in one fell swoop, not even exercising the buyout.  Hall at least has $150,000 coming his way, but the Sox might be his best shot at redemption considering how well the pitchers threw to him last season.

Otherwise, Hall won't be standing out much, even in a group of unimpressive free agents behind the plate.

And speaking of Uribe, he, too, filed for free agency.

The Cuban connection

Baseball America rated Alexei Ramirez the No. 5 rookie in all of baseball for 2008, behind Geovany Soto, Evan Longoria, Joey Votto and Jair Jurrjens.

As part of the rookie review package in the current issue, Phil Rogers wrote a feature on Ramirez.  Most of it's a recap of how we saw his season play out, but it emphasizes the relationship between Ramirez and Jose Contreras, who helped recruit Chelexei and assisted in his adjustment to American life.

A couple of passages:

Because Ramirez had moved between shortstop and center field in Cuba, some teams weren't sure about his fielding skills. But Jose Contreras assured Williams that Ramirez could make the jump to the big leagues.

A member of the White Sox since 2004, he contacted Ramirez to express his team's interest. Williams was able to sign Ramirez to a four-year contract for $4.75 million, in part because Contreras sold him on Chicago as a place to launch his North American career.

And...

Ramirez seemingly earned his spot on the Opening Day roster by playing well late in spring training, but Williams says he never had any intention of sending him to the minors.

"There was no way I was going to send this guy to Charlotte, North Carolina, where he would be on his own," Williams said. "For players from other cultures, it's important to provide help. I knew he would have that with Contreras. It would be an easier life here than anywhere else."

Based on performance alone, Ramirez should've been sent to Triple-A after the suspended game against Baltimore April 28.  He'd pissed off Ozzie Guillen by swinging at the first pitch after Daniel Cabrera threw five straight out of the strike zone, which didn't seem acceptable considering  he was only 4-for-33 at the time and hadn't distinguished himself defensively outside of a terrific spinning throw from the right-center gap April 15.

Thankfully, Contreras stayed healthy and pitched well enough to stick around, because eventually the Sox reaped the dividends from both their presences.

There don't appear to be any MLB-ready Cubans up for free agency -- the most I've seen so far is a blurb on a couple interesting teenagers that are still years away -- but keep this in mind whenever the option arises.  Contreras' contract expires at the end of the season, but depending on how rehabs from his busted Achilles, this might influence the Sox and how hard they try to keep him around afterward.

For more perspective on Ramirez, consult your local South Side Sox.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria 12, Surprise 6
    • Holy crap, did Jordan Danks ever put his stamp on the AFL -- 4-for-4 with a homer and three RBI.  Plus a walk.  Plus a stolen base.  Plus an outfield assist that resulted in a double play.
    • Gordon Beckham went 1-for-3 with an RBI, walk, strikeout and two runs scored.
    • Cole Armstrong hit a solo homer and walked in six plate appearances.
    • Derek Rodriguez struck out the side in a perfect inning.
    • And starting for Surprise was no slouch -- Brian Matusz, who was selected four picks ahead of Beckham in the 2008 draft.

Sox fans bid Kid adieu

SI.com's Jon Heyman says General Soreness will receive his discharge:

The White Sox have decided to let Ken Griffey Jr. go, according to people familiar with their thinking. While Griffey played well enough to keep Nick Swisher on the bench for most of the playoffs (that may be more a reflection on Swisher than Griffey), the White Sox seem to have decided they have enough lumbering power hitters already.

So as we start to tally the price of the offseason, this one costs the Sox $2 million, and us one pretty good nickname.

At least I can stop worrying about any possible re-signing and start trying to figure out how much the Griffey trade helped, hurt, or didn't matter.

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While doing some research, I came across these Sun-Times blog comments from February after Mark Buehrle reported his shoulder was OK:

By Anonymous on February 28, 2008 3:03 PM

SO? Is is he going to win a game after May this year?? Or have an ERA lower than 5??

Burhele is a LOSER!!!!!!!

By Phil on March 3, 2008 1:46 AM

TRADE BURHELE!!!!

Fans hate him!!!

By Mark on March 3, 2008 10:31 PM

I agree, Trade Burhele ----his time has past


I just thought that was funny.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Mesa 10, Peoria 1
    • Jordan Danks made his debut in center, going 1-for-4 with two strikeouts.
    • Aaron Poreda keeps rolling along, pitching a perfect inning and striking out one.

He said, 'We might use you later on...'

The offseason begins with a Jayson Nix signing.

Considering there were numerous obvious choices for Kenny Williams' first course of action (like declining Ken Griffey Jr.'s option), I don't think anybody had this one in their office pools.

PHILADELPHIA — Jayson Nix is changing Sox in attempt to rejuvenate his career.

The Rockies' opening day second baseman has agreed to a deal with the Chicago White Sox, according to contract details received by The Denver Post. [...]

Nix, 26, was the 44th overall selection in the 2001 draft. Nix will make $400,000 if on the White Sox's major league roster.

Nix is essentially a Jason Bourgeois replacement.  He had his first breakout season in the minor leagues only this past year, when he hit .303/.373/.591 over 303 plate appearances in Triple-A Colorado Springs.  Unfortunately, with the combination of Colorado Springs and the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in general, his line wouldn't look much different if his home stadium was on the moon.  (And what if it were!)

He flopped for the Rockies starting the season, as he had an opportunity to wrestle the starting gig away from Marcus Giles (and eventually they both lost it to Clint Barmes).  He was expected to get another shot as a September call-up, but he suffered an injury during the Olympics.

And when looking up how he got injured, it's not pretty.

Nix squared around to bunt, and Lazo's pitch skimmed off his bat and struck him square on the face.

I was inclined to make a joke about him fitting right in, but evidently it was in self-defense.

Biding time through Game 5

In the previous thread, soxexile said this year's World Series reminded him of 1988.  With Game 5 lasting at least two days, it might be closer to 1989 now.

(We're supposed to get snow here later today thanks to the same system.  I'd be surprised if this game didn't resume until Wednesday.)



Mark Gonzalez, too impatient to wait for the Series to end, released a White Sox offseason outlook.  He mentions a few trade possibilities we haven't discussed here.

No. 1:  Chone Figgins.  Technically, we went over this way back in May, but it's interesting to see what Figgins did with his season.

He saw a sizable increase in walks (62 from 51, plus three HBPs), but managed a Jerry Owens-like 16 extra-base hits over 520 plate appearances.  Add those with a third straight year of decline with regards to his stolen base total (34-for-47), and there's one very obvious conclusion:

Figgins is getting old.

There are two general trends about ballplayers as they age:
  1. The legs are the first to go.
  2. They become more selective because they can't cover the plate like they used to.
He'll be 31 next season.  He was hampered by a bad right hamstring for about a month, so there's a chance he could rebound, but these are warning signs worth paying attention to.

On the other hand, this makes him an excellent candidate to acquire for only a year.  His contract expires at the end of the '09 season.

No. 2:  Garrett Atkins.  He could be an interesting "buy low" candidate, because he's coming off a season during which his walk rate completely fell in the crapper, and the rest of his numbers suffered with it.

But ... Coors Field.  Atkins hit .233/.278/.383 away from Colorado last season, which is now a trend considering he topped a .900 OPS on the road just two years ago.  Throw in a glove that plus/minus rated one of the worst in the league, and I'm not sure what the improvement is here.

No. 3:  Willy Taveras.  Taveras is not a ballplayer for acquiring.  Taveras is a ballplayer for laying down and avoiding.

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Arizona Fall League update:
  • Peoria 13, Mesa 2
    • Lucas Harrell struck out four over three shutout innings, allowing just two hits and zero walks.
    • Carlos Torres allowed two runs on four hits over two innings, striking out four.
    • Cole Armstrong went 1-for-5 with an RBI.

Rays crushed by weight of World Series

So how come the White Sox couldn't play these Tampa Bay Rays in the first round of the ALDS?

This World Series is similar to the 2006 edition, when the Tigers tore through the first two rounds before forgetting how to play the game against the Cardinals.  Except this time, Akinori Iwamura is playing the part of the Tigers' rotation.

Hell, Andy Sonnanstine couldn't even throw strikes Sunday night, which is pretty much all he did against the Sox in the clincher.

Three more observations from half-watching the series while knocking out a chapter.

No. 1:  The Rays aren't the 2005 Sox.  Not that anybody here was saying that, but as the years go by, the 11-1 run looks all the more impressive.

No. 2:  Against all odds, home runs continue to be valuable.  The Phillies took a 2-1 lead despite going 2-for-33 with runners in scoring position.  Then four of their 12 hits left the yard Sunday. 

No. 3:  Maybe we should hold off on Jermaine Dye-for-Edwin Jackson talks.  Joe Blanton?

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • No games played.
Jordan Danks joins the Peoria lineup in place of Stefan Gartrell, who separated his shoulder.

Three years gone

Just a simple salute to the day that made this year's playoff failure so much easier to tolerate.

Over at 35th Street Review, Andrew has an interesting perspective on the anniversary.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria Saguaros 15, Peoria Javelinas 4
    • Cole Armstrong had a big day, going 2-for-4 with a homer, three RBI and two walks.  He struck out once and allowed a passed ball, but picked off a runner.

Weekend link dump

Reading Scott Merkin's piece on Chris Getz, I came to a dead stop when I hit this sentence:

Getz has been compared favorably to an established Major Leaguer such as Minnesota's Nick Punto.

I did not think it was possible to be compared favorably to Nick Punto, at least in a way other than "Player X is way better than Nick Punto."  Does this mean Getz gets paid $25,000 for every unnecessary headfirst slide into first base, or that he's able to make his manager believe that he's better than he really is?

(Ozzie Guillen does "like the way he does stuff."  Uh oh.)

Anyway, some more links for your enjoyment:
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Arizona Fall League roundup:

Are the White Sox one starter short?

Before I begin, here's a mildly amusing occurrence.  I went to Dunkin' Donuts Thursday morning for a hot cup of coffee before work, and they ended up giving me a hot cup of...



At the very least, it's funnier than Gordon Beckham's blog.  Moving on...

Even though John Danks and Gavin Floyd exceeded about everybody's expectations -- Floyd's buzz cut is proof that even he didn't believe in himself that much -- the White Sox find themselves in a similar situation as they did at this time last year.

I was slightly miffed early in the 2007 offseason when Kenny Williams dealt Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera, because I figured any upgrade in run prevention from Juan Uribe to Cabrera would be negated and then some by the downgrade from Jon Garland to Floyd.  Or Danks.  Whichever one turned out worse, really.

We know how silly that looks now.  They had more than enough starting pitching, with Floyd and Danks outpitching Garland handily along with Jose Contreras exceeding expectations after a disastrous year.

(Aside: In a season when the division is decided by one game, it makes Contreras' contributions a whole lot more significant.  That he rebounded from 2007 with a 101 ERA+ and an 11-9 record in games he started looms extremely large, even if his year was cut short by injury.)

Still, the giant strides by the rotation's two youngest starters still leave some nagging questions.

For Floyd, he's dealing with a career high in innings (206; previous high was 176 2/3 in 2007).  He's also the most homer-prone starter of the bunch, and he never quite paid for getting away with some ugly peripherals in the first half of the season.  Not that luck always evens out, but it's worth saying.

Danks saw a much more dramatic jump in innings (195; previous high 156 in 2005), and had more in-game endurance issues than Floyd on top of that.  He appeared to wear down in the second half before getting a second wind in the last couple weeks of the season, much to everybody's delight.

Going beyond the young guns, there's late-season collapse victim Javier Vazquez and a question mark at fifth starter, right now occupied by Clayton Richard while Contreras tries like hell to rehabilitate his ruptured Achilles.  Richard's a bigger "if" than either Danks or Floyd were at this point last season, but he has momentum, with his last start in Yankee Stadium an unqualified success and his solid relief work during the ALDS.

It's a somewhat complicated picture, but I think there are two sides to it.

No. 1:  The White Sox need another innings-eater.

This is the theory advanced here by some here, most notably Grinder in Training.  Not to single him out, but he summed up the position in a concise fashion in the last thread:

I just think it really puts a strain on the bullpen to have two guys coming off years with such a big increase in innings while also having either a rookie / injury prone pitcher as your number 5. Buehrle's going to have to pitch a complete game every other start to keep that pen fresh.

There's definitely merit to that, especially if the Twins' youth movement develops as planned and the Indians rebound.  It wouldn't be a wise time for the Sox rotation to revert to its 2001-04 shape.

Another starter would push Richard into long-relief work, and he looked pretty comfortable in the swingman role at the end of the season when Guillen pared down his rotation to a four-man version.  That theoretically gives aid to a bullpen that saw two key arms spend time on the disabled list while another miraculously avoided the DL after a hot and heavy three-year relationship with it.

That sounds pretty nice, doesn't it?

No. 2:  Perhaps Sox fans should learn from last year and relax.


Here's a fun stat: Over the last four seasons, White Sox starters have logged the most innings of any team in the American League, averaging 1,032 innings a season.  The Cleveland Indians are second at 1,004.

True, last year they finished with only 998, their first time under 1,000.  But when you consider the rotation had three question marks and another guy with a flaky reputation to start the season -- and a season-ending injury on top of it -- that's a pretty remarkable output.

As the offense continues to struggle getting everybody functioning at the same time, it's natural to want to wring hands.  But the Sox -- at least in the last four years -- seem to have a pretty good handle of what their pitchers are capable of, as they've pushed, pulled, traded and acquired some guys under heavy scrutiny and come out with reputations intact, if not enhanced.

It's a pretty fascinating debate -- especially considering neither argument could've been wrong last year.  One name tossed around was Bartolo Colon, who reportedly joined the Sox until it was revealed ¡Impacto Deportivo! didn't exactly have the greatest sources.

Colon would've fit perfectly on the Sox as his season played out.  He spent nearly the entire season in Pawtucket and put up some nice numbers (I even saw him start a game there), but he bailed on the Red Sox organization at season's end because there wasn't a spot on the playoff roster for him.

Not that the same set of events can be assumed, but as it turned out, Colon would've had the job he'd hoped for during the stretch run if he were transported to the White Sox organization.  He probably would've been Clayton Richard -- a shorter and much more rotund Richard.

So based on what we learned from last year, I'm inclined to hope for the same course of action -- explore the extraneous starter route, but don't make it a priority.  I don't think it would be smart to invest two years in any of the second-tier free agents out there, which leaves the market pretty bare. 

I don't even want to mention the guy whose name rhymes with "Parl Cavano," because continuing to do so would resemble an endorsement, and I have no clue what kind of shape he's in and what his demands are.  But that's the kind of low-cost, decent-yield investment the Sox might benefit from the most.  Given the pretty optimistic state of the rotation and the holes in the infield, I don't see much reason to make starting position any higher of a priority.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria 9, Surprise 1
    • Gordon Beckham went 2-for-4 with an RBI, walk and strikeout.
    • Carlos Torres worked a scoreless inning, walking one and striking out one.

Lidge saves game, saved from embarrassment

FOX baseball producers have a lot of nerve to broadcast Brad Lidge's first postseason outing since 2005 and utterly fail to mention the following two things:

No. 1:



No. 2:



At the very least, we can say with absolute certainty that Scott Podsednik is a better ballplayer than Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford.  Maybe combined.

(Also, it's a little weird that Eric Gagne and Lidge, who are 1-2 on the list for longest consecutive saves streaks, blew an All-Star Game in the middle of it.)

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria 8, Surprise 1
    • Gordon Beckham went 1-for-4 with a double.
    • Cole Armstrong had two singles in four at-bats, striking out once. He also threw out a baserunner.

Free association with free agents

Oakland's re-signing of Mark Ellis sent me to the list of free agents to see who else might 1) be available for a reasonable price, and 2) actually make a difference on the 2009 White Sox.

The results aren't encouraging.  Not that Ellis was incredible, what with the bad shoulder and entering the Roberto Alomar Collapse Age For Second Basemen Territory, but he theoretically could have offered improvements in three separate categories.  It's hard to find many transformational figures that fit in the Sox's plan, otherwise, though there are plenty of gap-fillers like Mark Grudzielanek.

Orlando Hudson is a similar ballplayer with two big differences: One is scary road splits in the weaker league, and the other is that he's a Type A free agent.  It's hard to see him getting a shorter contract than three years, which pretty much eliminates all utility of signing Hudson considering they could be well-stocked at the position by the time Gordon Beckham rolls around.

I'm not particularly excited, otherwise, but take a look at the list and tell me if there's anybody that interests you.

Meanwhile, I'm going to spout off some immediate reactions from the list:

Josh Bard is perhaps the most credible backup catcher replacement for Toby Hall on the list, but it's hard to tell if he's worse at throwing out runners, or San Diego's staff is that bad at holding them.  They're pretty much a staff full of Freddy Garcias when it comes to delivery time to the plate.

Ray Durham would be fun.  But at that point, they're better off sticking Ramirez and Durham in the short gaps in the outfield, pinch Paul Konerko and Josh Fields (or whoever) at the corners and just try catching every fly ball that's hit.  Tadahito Iguchi, same thing, although he hasn't proven he has two fully functioning arms yet.

Jerry Hairston played only six games at shortstop in his first 10 seasons as a big leaguer.  He played 34 games there last year, and at age 32, to boot.  That's kind of backwards.

Hank Blalock would've been a good thought if Joe Crede hadn't fallen victim to the Scott Boras mindmeld.  For most of their careers, they were the exact same player offensively -- except Blalock couldn't hit lefties, and Crede could.  In another world, they would've made a pretty entertaining platoon.  Kind of like how Cleveland got a .319/.376/.534 line from Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez and Ryan Garko two years ago.

Nomar Garciaparra almost joined the White Sox before the '04 season, when he was rumored to be involved in a three-way trade that would've sent Magglio Ordonez to Boston.  I bring this up because Kenny Williams traded for Ken Griffey Jr. a few months ago.  You've been warned.

Casey Blake makes a lot of sense ... if you really don't want Josh Fields, but think he has some trade value.  Those two seem to be mutually exclusive right now.  But since we talked about Dave Cook yesterday, Blake's another example of a slow climber/late bloomer.

And I still don't see any fifth starter options better than Clayton Richard.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria Javelinas 18, Peoria Saguaros 11
    • Not a good day for Lucas Harrell, who allowed six runs on four hits and two walks over 1 1/3 innings.  He only threw 25 of 45 pitches for strikes.
    • Derek Rodriguez was worse: 1 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K.
    • Aaron Poreda... one perfect inning, two strikeouts.  Phew.
    • Stefan Gartrell walked twice in three plate appearances.

Breathing room for White Sox 40-man roster

The White Sox roster made some moves that reduced their 40-man roster to a nice prime number of 37 Monday:
  • Outrighted Donny Lucy to Charlotte, where he'll remain with the Sox organization.
  • Outrighted Jason Bourgeois, Andrew Sisco and Paul Phillips to Charlotte; they chose free agency.
  • Recalled Jose Contreras from the 60-day DL.
Happy trails to Bourgeois, who I'm hoping can find a chance in the big leagues somewhere.  Having seen him in a half-dozen or so games with the Knights, he seems like the kind of guy who could get hot for a few weeks for a club in a pinch.

If nothing else, he at least notched his first major-league hit with the Sox.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the 40-man roster between now and the Rule 5 draft, because there appears to be a lot more flux this time around.   Here are the candidates to drop off the 40-man roster:
  1. Orlando Cabrera
  2. D.J. Carrasco
  3. Joe Crede
  4. Ken Griffey Jr.
  5. Horacio Ramirez
  6. Juan Uribe
  7. Toby Hall
Meanwhile, here are some current Sox minor leaguers who may need to hop on the roster for Rule 5 Draft protection (thanks to Larry), and here's how I'd prioritize them:
  1. Derek Rodiguez
  2. Brandon Allen
  3. Jon Link
  4. David Cook
  5. Carlos Torres
  6. John Lujan
  7. Wes Whisler
After Cook, I'd be at peace with it, though Torres is worth a spot if they have it.  Cook does a little bit of everything and managed an above-average on-base percentage despite problems adjusting to Charlotte, so it'd be worth keeping him around for one more year in hopes that he might be a late bloomer along the lines of a Brady Clark Lite.  There's really no other competition in the outfield right now.

Whisler's the interesting one, in that based on stuff, he's at the bottom.  But he somehow managed a winning record (12-10) with a bad Charlotte team, although his 3.81 ERA was superficially lowered thanks to 20 unearned runs.  So maybe they're holding out hope for him, though I don't really see much improvement in his splits.

Then again, the front office didn't hold Heath Phillips near and dear to their hearts -- and Phillips was a much better pitcher.

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If you're a fan of Jason from the Trib, then you'll be pleased to discover MLB.com articles now allow comments.  Or maybe you already knew this and it's only new to me.

Venture to the bottom of Scott Merkin's latest mailbag, and you'll get the following ideas:
  • Trade Cabrera and Griffey for a fifth starter.
  • Trade Paul Konerko for Chone Figgins and a reliever.
  • Sign Figgins as a free agent.
  • DON'T TRADE CREDE
  • "but back to the Minnesota-like offense, homers arent cutting it anymore."
  • Contreras gone, somehow.
  • Thome gone, Konerko gone, somehow.
  • Start Griffey in center next year.
This could get old quick.  Or maybe it never will*.  Right now, I could go either way, just like the Sox could acquire Figgins by trading for or signing him.

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Arizona Fall League update:
  • Peoria Javelinas 4, Peoria Saguaros 2
    • Cole Armstrong singled and struck out twice in four at-bats.
    • Carlos Torres had control issues, walking a batter, hitting another and throwing a wild pitch en route to three runs (two earned) over 1 1/3 innings.

*as long as they don't start showing up here.

Top 10 White Sox home run moments of 2008

As if coping with the four-game loss in the ALDS wasn't any easier, it's nice to know that the team the White Sox lost to officially earned themselves the title of the American League's best.

I'm actually looking forward to a Tampa Bay-Philadelphia matchup, because I think I was going to break my TV if I saw another closeup of Jonathan Papelbon's pursed-lip concentration face.  Neither the Phillies nor Rays have been on the national scene long enough to have any clichés mashed into a pulp.  Yet.

(That said, while I'm going to miss TBS' baseball coverage shortly, I'm not going to miss Chip Caray's subtle hyperbolization of everything.  I wonder if he knows that Game Sevens have been "decisive" for roughly the last 80-90 years.)

Anyway, I spent a good chunk of the weekend reviewing the season, as the drama of the last month made the first five-sixths of the season somewhat of a memory stew.  You'll never guess, but most of the most exciting moments were provided by ...

...the home run.  And a lot of them were solo shots!

My goal for tonight was compiling the top 10 offensive moments of the season, but I soon realized that up to nine of them could be homers.  The only no-doubt non-homer moment was the moment simply described as "EDDINGS!"

So I'm going to make like the White Sox and dismiss alternate forms of scoring.  Out of the White Sox's 235 round-trippers in 2008, here were the 10 awesomest home run moments, which actually comprise 14 dingers.  Click on the title to watch the video, and date to read the recap.

(To sound like a Time-Life infomercial that makes white people even whiter, "You could spend several years and thousands of dollars to collect all these great moments!  So many great hits in one place, you'll wonder how you ever lived without it!  Finally! Christopher Cross and REO Speedwagon in the same collection!")

No. 1. Jim Thome's solo shot in Game 163 -- Sept. 30

Much like Thome's 461-foot mighty blow, this one was a no-doubter.  He blasted a high changeup into the black night, landing behind the batter's eye in center field while 40,354 black-clad fans celebrated something fierce.

Ron Darling summed up the distance nicely: "That's where the men hit it."

No. 2:  Nick Swisher's game-winning three-run shot -- Aug. 5

Nick Swisher's three-run homer off Joel Zumaya with two outs in the bottom of the 14th inning rescued the Sox from certain doom -- even more so considering the game should've ended when Jermaine Dye hit a routine grounder to Edgar Renteria.  But Renteria booted it, and the Sox successfully rose from the dead twice.  They rallied from a 6-1 deficit to push the game into extras in the first place. 

I'll fondly remember this one as the "WORST GAME OF THE SEASON."  And Hawk Harrelson might've pulled something.

No. 3:  Dewayne Wise's grand slam -- Sept. 14

Wise turned what could've been a crushing loss into a thrilling victory.  The Sox blew an 8-0 lead when Marcus Thames hit a game-tying grand slam in the top of the eighth, but Wise answered right back with a slam of his own -- as a pinch hitter, and with two outs, off Kyle "Detroit Dotel" Farnsworth.  The slam helped the Sox sweep their first doubleheader since 2001.

No. 4:  Alexei Ramirez's grand slam in Game 162 -- Sept. 29

Chelexei took the first pitch he saw -- a high, 89 m.p.h. changeup courtesy of Gary Glover -- and sent it into the left field seats to break this one open in the sixth inning.  While it might only rank fourth on the list, the shot of Alexei with arms extended only slightly wider than his smile is the enduring image of this season.

No. 5:  Jim Thome's 15th-inning homer -- Sept. 6

The Gentleman Masher fancied himself a victory catalyst with a brawny circuit clout, which cleared the right-field fence by a furlong and sent the local nine's rooters home with wheelbarrows of merriment.

No. 6:  Carlos Quentin's walkoff against John Lackey -- May 25


In a year full of huge hits by Quentin, this one's my favorite, because he truly won this game singlehandedly.  Lackey had dominated the Sox through eight innings (he needed only 79 pitches).  However, he couldn't retire Quentin -- CQ's first homer gave the Sox their only two runs up to that point, and he also was plunked and singled in his other two plate appearances.  The fourth time around, Quentin smashed a 1-1 pitch that just cleared the wall to end the game.

No. 7:  Back-to-back-to-back-to-back --
Aug. 14

Thome, Konerko, Ramirez and Juan Uribe became the sixth foursome in MLB history to complete the homer hambone.  They turned what was a tight 3-2 game against the Kansas City Royals into a 9-2 laugher.

No. 8:  Quentin kills a closer, and Jermaine Dye does the same -- July 23 and July 25

Quentin got the last laugh against C.J. Wilson -- whom Ozzie Guillen criticized days earlier for showing his team up -- by jumping on the first pitch Wilsow threw with two outs in the eighth inning for a three-run homer, which capped off a five-run inning and a big comeback.

One game later, Dye effectively ended the Tigers' chances of contending and Todd Jones' career.  This one came in the ninth inning with two outs, and his homer over Comerica's right-center wall gave the Sox their first victory in which they trailed after eight.  They were 0-for-38 before this night.

No. 9:  Paul Konerko's 15th-inning homer -- June 4

Konerko fell below the Mendoza Line after going hitless in his first four at-bats, but Trey Hillman did him the favor of letting him face Jimmy Gobble in the 15th inning.  Konerko hooked one inside the left-field foul pole to end the game, giving him four homers in six at-bats off the Kansas City southpaw.

No. 10:  Orlando Cabrera's three run homer -- June 19


The Sox and Pirates found themselves in a scoreless tie after the first inning.  They were tied at 6 after the second.  Pablo Ozuna's error caused Gavin Floyd to open the unearned-run floodgates, but the Sox stormed back in the bottom of the inning, with Cabrera's three-run shot capping off the early comeback.

Honorable mentions:
Think I have them out of order?  Bring it.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • No games played.

This, that and the Arizona Fall League

Heavy writing day, so a couple notes:

No. 1:  Scott Merkin provides an update from the White Sox-Tucson negotiations.  I'm not necessarily rooting against the Sox on this issue, but I am rooting for Tucson.  That city's economy is in bad shape, partially due to out-of-control sprawl I'm guessing.  But it's a cool place, and I'll miss going there, because vacations are less fun when you have to drive 40 minutes everywhere.

No. 2:  Over at White Sox Examiner (newly added to the right rail), J.J. has reviews of Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Mesa 3, Peoria 1 (Saturday)
    • Gordon Beckham went 1-for-3 with a strikeout.
    • Stefan Gartrell had two hits (including a double) and two K's in four at-bats.
    • Aaron Poreda pitched around a couple hits for a scoreless inning.
  • Mesa 18, Peoria 10 (Friday)
    • Beckham doubled, walked and scored two runs, but committed a throwing error.
    • Cole Armstrong had four hits and an RBI, but also threw one away.
    • Carlos Torres pitched a 1-2-3 inning, which was a rarity in this game.
    • Derek Rodriguez came in to end a wild ninth, striking out two of three batters he faced.

A Day that will live in infamy

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated Day became the first major-league pitcher to appear in more than 100 games in a season.  Day was the first in only the American League, although he does own the record for most appearances in a season in either league.

CHICAGO -- The back-to-back World Series flags flew at half-staff over U.S. Cellular Field Friday afternoon as the city's South Side succumbed to overwhelming sorrow upon hearing the news that a hero was not to return.

A week after holding a rally celebrating his team's second consecutive championship, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams spoke to fans under much more somber circumstances this time, announcing that Dewon Day, relief ace and undoubtedly the franchise's singular figure, would not be returning for a third stellar season.

"With great sadness, I'm here to announce that Dewon Day has been claimed by the Boston Red Sox for personal reasons," Williams said, holding back tears.  "We will issue no further comment at this time."

Boos washed over the podium as Williams retreated hastily into the stadium's offices.  Chicago Police reported more than dozen fights, but no arrests were made as most combatants did not have the heart to continue, instead choosing to embrace each other in consolation over the bad news.

Most fans stood stunned, silent.

"Why?" asked one Sox fan who wished to remain anonymous.  "I mean..." 

He trailed off, his moist eyes cast down 35th Street.

Answers are in short supply. Calls placed to Day's agent, Dave Stewart, were not returned.

However, a source close to the White Sox said Day was worn down by the power of his own celebrity, and requested a trade to a team out of the spotlight.  The organization, knowing they could never truly recoup Day's value in a trade, chose simply to place him on waivers.

The confusing and mysterious circumstances of his departure are fitting of his time with the Sox, during which he was an equally elusive figure.

FROM OUT OF NOWHERE

Even Williams didn't know what he had when he selected Day in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft.  Day had been a talented but underachieving right-handed relief pitcher in the Toronto Blue Jays system.

As it turned out, a literally minor move changed the fate of the franchise forever.

Day would later disclose he had been working through an injury suffered in a riding lawnmower accident.  As he regained strength, he began to turn the baseball world upside-down with only two pitches.  One of them would soon earn its own name.

He averaged three strikeouts for every four batters he faced in Birmingham, with most outs coming by way of unsuccessful bunt attempts.  Day joined the major leagues May 28 as Williams sought a solution for a relief corps that went bottom-up during the second month of the season.

Day didn't just join the bullpen -- he was the bullpen.  He became the first American League pitcher to appear in more than 100 games in one season, a feat made even more remarkable by the fact that his team was already 45 games into the season when he joined it.

Along with games pitched record, Day became the first relief pitcher to lead the league in wins (24) and innings pitched (239 1/3).  He also was the only player named to an All-Star team after the break.

"We're like the bullpen equivalent of Group 4," Boone Logan said that year.  "We call ourselves 'The Others.'  Ozzie [Guillen] really only has to visit the mound once."

A MYTH, A LEGEND

The secret to his success: a slider that broke from the hitter's front shoulder to shin height in the opposite batter's box.  The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

The pitch confused hitters, and often angered them.  On four separate occasions hitters charged the mound after striking out.  Minnesota Twins infielder Nick Punto was suspended for the duration of the season after throwing his bat at the mound one night in late August.  Day was not injured.

In fact, Day never suffered an injury despite his incredible workload.  During one stretch when he appeared in 62 consecutive games, Guillen said Day often persuaded him to give him the ball.

"I thought our phone only dialed out to the bullpen before this kid come along," Guillen said.  "I had no idea it received calls.  I wanted to change the number.  Day, he won't take days off."

Day worked in 251 out of 279 regular season games he spent with the White Sox, including 20 of 23 postseason games during the Sox's back-to-back championship runs.  His pitching catapulted the franchise into stratospheric financial success, rivaling the New York Yankees in revenue.

Yet as the money rushed in, Day opted not to stake a claim.

MAN OF MYSTERY

Since fans were nearly guaranteed to see the sport's best pitcher throw every day, White Sox games became the hottest ticket in baseball.  The season-ticket base doubled in size, and even though the organization raised its ticket prices an average of $25 for each section, demand continued to surge.  Television and radio ratings, and along with it advertising prices, increased at a commensurate rate.

The team also tried another way to increase profits when Williams sent Logan, Ehren Wassermann and David Aardsma to Charlotte with corresponding roster moves to be announced.

The three pitchers were not replaced until four weeks later, after the Major League Baseball Players' Association filed a grievance accusing the White Sox of intentionally reducing their roster size.  The White Sox settled with the union, and recalled Wassermann, Logan and Ryan Bukvich soon after.  Those three pitchers combined to work in seven games over the last two months of the season.

Day, meanwhile, not only made the league minimum -- he refused millions of dollars worth of endorsements.  Sources close to Day say he spent most of his offseason in litigation against parties attempting to cash in on his likeness and "The Doomerang" name, which he trademarked.

Official details about Day are scant, as he rarely spoke to the media.  One Chicago newspaper kept track of the amount of words Day said to reporters.  At season's end, they tallied eight words: "Excuse me," and "Oh my God, look behind you!"

But even as Day attempted to keep his distance, he couldn't help but draw attention with his performances.  In 2008, he became the first pitcher to win 30 games since 1968, finishing with 36.  He added to his trophy case, taking home the MVP, Cy Young and World Series MVP awards for the second consecutive season.

After Williams' brief press conference, though, there will be no encore for 2009.

CITY, FRANCHISE MOURN

Williams' words sent shock waves of grief through the South Side.  Many city schools sent students home early.

"Just a lot of kids crying," said Herk Flerkberger, principal of nearby Ward Elementary School.  "More than usual."

While the split surprised the team, sources say the split was amicable.  Day's No. 60 will be retired, as will No. 6 and No. 0, just to be safe.  In addition, the organization is also considering retiring day games.

Williams has his own issues to deal with.  After telling reporters he had planned to spend the entire offseason on vacation, not even breaking to attend the winter meetings, he now finds himself in need of three or four relievers.  With Day now sporting Red Sox instead of white ones, the future is no longer secure.

Instead, a new day has unexpectedly dawned for the Chicago White Sox.

The forecast calls for clouds.

How can the White Sox get younger? By getting a year older

Most of the complaints about the White Sox center on their age, but when you look at the numbers, it's not necessarily a bad thing.

The White Sox had the second-oldest roster in the American League at 29.8 years.  The only team older than them?  The Boston Red Sox, who are still alive after a seven-run comeback against the Rays Thursday night.  Of the three older National League teams, two of them advanced further into the MLB playoffs than the Sox did.

The Cubs, arguably the strongest team in baseball before the playoffs, were just one-tenth of a year younger than the Sox.  You have to go all the way to the Detroit Tigers, the 10th-oldest team in baseball, to find one that wasn't at least in contention during September.

The common trait is that old ballplayers, generally speaking, are good ballplayers, because they're so talented that the game allows them to grow old.  Father Time will find lesser guys, roll them in a carpet and throw them off a bridge before they know what's happening (see Everett, Carl).

I bring this up because when playing around with the possibilities, there's no way around it -- the Sox will again be old.  Consider the above your silver lining.



Barring bizarre circumstances, Jim Thome isn't going anywhere.  Neither is Paul Konerko, as both of them have complete and utter no-trade privileges.  The Sox have no replacement for A.J. Pierzynski.  Last year's second-half suprise supplement of speed, Dewayne Wise will be 31 when spring training rolls around, if he stays.

The free agents won't lower the average age any.  Orlando Hudson?  Older.  Mark Ellis?  Older.  Rafael Furcal?  Older.  Casey Blake?  Older.  Mark Grudzielanek?  You get the idea.

The good news for those ageists among us is that the next opening isn't far away.  But the number of options depends greatly on three guys -- two for whom Sox fans don't have much patience.

Nick Swisher's restoration is the first priority.  Swisher and Carlos Quentin were Kenny Williams' best shots at getting younger on the fly.  Quentin held up his end of the bargain, but Swisher fell far short.

He'll only be 28 next year, and a return to his career averages is more likely than a repeat of 2008.  If he can achieve the former, the Sox have a good chance of having an entire outfield younger than 30 years old for the 2010 season.

Josh Fields is No. 2, and we talked about him yesterday.  I will add that this strengthens my point about him needing to concentrate on hitting above all else.  Andrew called him "a DH-in-training," and that's a setback the Sox can absorb with Thome entering the last year of his contract.

The third is Gordon Beckham, who stands a reasonable chance of reaching the big leagues by 2010.  There's no need to rush him, but if he were able to follow the fast track, the Sox could trot out a regular lineup with more than half its members under the age of 30.  That may not sound impressive, but it's a big transition for the lineup's current shape.  When Wise and Ken Griffey Jr. replaced Quentin and Swisher over the last month of the season, Alexei Ramirez was the only guy in his prime most nights.

The Sox will have some flexibility before 2010 if Kenny Williams decides to trade Jermaine Dye, but I don't see Williams making the shopping of Dye a high priority.  After all, Williams made a conscious decision to let the team get old, signing Pierzynski a year before he had to and bringing back Dye off a bad year.  Furthermore, the fact that Herm Schneider and Ozzie Guillen kept Dye and Thome off the disabled list the entire year gives Williams more reason to stand pat.

Not that I think Williams won't pull off at least one big move, and Dye could very well be a casualty.  But one theme I'm seeing in early trade proposals and offseason plans are trades that get younger for the sake of getting younger, and that isn't Williams' way.

In fact, he almost taunts the aging process.  He eschewed convention wisdom by extending two aging players after down years, and bypassing a natural opportunity to start a rebuilding process.  On top of that, he traded for a poor 38-year-old right fielder with plans to deploy him in center.  In all cases, he has yet to face the consequences many people thought were imminent -- myself included, and very much so.

My guess is that his rationale can be explained by the opening sentiment -- good ballplayers are good ballplayers, regardless of age and whether they used to be better ballplayers years ago.  His record indicates that he can't be faulted for it, and with the Sox defending the AL Central title, I think he can live one more year with station-to-station baseball if the results are nearly this good.

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Crazy-assed rotation help flier idea:  Carl Pavano.

I don't endorse it until I see the price, but here's my math:  Cheap + Herm + Don Cooper + Ozzie Marlin ties + big game performances witnessed by Guillen + Esteban Loaiza actually pitched in three games for the Sox despite having a bigger fork sticking out of his back.

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Arizona Fall League update:
  • Peoria 8, Phoenix 2
    • Stefan Gartrell went 2-for-4 with two runs scored, an RBI, a walk and a strikeout.

Small glove, big expectations

When it comes to defense, Josh Fields has a bullseye on his back, and I don't completely understand it.

Take Joe Cowley's pre-vacation parting thoughts:

That leaves Josh Fields, who is in dire need of a commitment to defense this winter.

And Scott Merkin:

That flexibility should contribute to improved defense at third base, a weaker area of Fields' game targeted by manager Ozzie Guillen during the 2008 season.

Maybe "lost cause" is too strong a phrase for Fields' glove, but it should be the least of anybody's concerns.  Two reasons:

No. 1:  Players generally don't improve drastically on defense at a position they've played all their lives.


When you hear about an infielder who has made strides with his defense at the big-league level, it almost always has to do with their throwing -- slowing the game down enough to repeat solid mechanics.  Once in a while, you might hear about somebody whose hands have improved.

But I can't think of one player who made massive improvements on his first step, which is the biggest difference between Fields and Joe Crede based on what I've seen.  There's nothing wrong with his arm, and they're limited on how much they can improve his hands if his problem is getting to the ball late.  Even practicing with Joey Cora and the world's tiniest glove won't change much.

No. 2:  Any reasonable improvement isn't going to stop the Sox from stinking in the field.

It takes a village to raise a team's defense, and when Brian Anderson isn't starting, the Sox don't have one guy on the field you could confidently describe as "average."  Wring your hands over the individual shortcomings all you want, but if Fields makes a big step to improve to "decent," Sox pitchers are still going to have to hold their breath when a hitter puts a ball in play.

This is the biggest reason for the Sox to pursue Mark Ellis.  As rough and unlucky a season as he had with the bat last year (.233/.321/.373), he was by far the premier defensive second baseman in the league, whether you go by plus-minus (+26) or zone rating (.868).  The other possible solutions -- Chris Getz, Mark Grudzielanek, Chone Figgins -- don't compare.

I'm not driving the Ellis bandwagon yet, but if the Sox signed somebody like him, then Fields' defense becomes a bigger issue.  The Sox would be only one or two more gloves away from being a solid support group for Sox pitching.  Even then, there's no reason to put the spotlight on Fields in particular.  It's not like he was ever considered a sterling defender.

Fields was drafted because he had a big bat and some promising secondary skills (strike zone judgment, speed).  It sounds like the knee surgery (the focus of Merkin's article) will take care of that last skill, which wasn't mentioned much despite it clearly affecting his baserunning.

The other two need big-time work, so I think he'd be better served by figuring out how to hit a belt-high fastball of 92 m.p.h. down the middle of the plate then converting a few more balls into outs on the field.  If he doesn't hit, he won't see enough time on the field to make the miniscule mitt time worth it, anyway.

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Arizona Fall League roundup:
  • Peoria 3, Phoenix 2
    • Lucas Harrell pitched a solid three innings, allowing a run on three hits and a walk while striking out two.
    • Aaron Poreda struck out the side during his inning, in which he allowed a hit and a walk.
    • Gordon Beckham went 0-for-3 with a strikeout.

Real offseason decision No. 3: Bobby Jenks

Compared to the Juan Uribe and Toby Hall situations -- and neither are considered a back-breaker -- Kenny Williams is under little pressure when trying to figure out what to do with Bobby Jenks.  The only wrong answer is one he'd never consider.

Jenks is entering his first year of arbitration, so here's what we're looking at as three courses of action:
  1. Offer Jenks arbitration (BOOOOORING!)
  2. Buy out his arbitration years and/or first year of free agency.
  3. Trade him.
Four questions tackle just about every aspect of the decision-making process.

No. 1:  Will Jenks be healthy?

While you couldn't call Jenks the paragon of fitness, he's managed to stay pretty healthy.  His DL stint before the All-Star break was his first-ever with the Sox, and he returned from it better than ever.

According to FanGraphs, Jenks' fastball continued its decline in velocity for a third straight year, though one by one-tenth of a mile per hour (93.9 m.p.h. to 93.8.).  However, if you only saw him September, you might have a different idea.

Pitch F/X had his fastball clocked at 95.35 m.p.h. in his eight-pitch, eight-strike inning against the Indians Sept. 28.  Two days later, Jenks cracked 98.  His final fastball, which sawed off Alexei Casilla, reached just a shade under triple-digits.

Perhaps it was all adrenaline, but if Jenks truly had that fastball in his back pocket and was saving it for the entire year, then he has the patience of a monk.  It also indicates that he can manage his body pretty well, weight notwithstanding.  In fact, he might be a little too conservative.

No. 2:  How effective is he?


This is a question independent of his fastball, because he wasn't throwing 100 m.p.h. when he retired 41 consecutive batters in 2007.  A lot of numbers went in the wrong direction for Jenks, chief among them his strikeout rate.

Jenks had the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher with 20 or more saves last season.  He and Salomon Torres were the only closers with strikeout rates under 6.5 per nine innings, and Jenks was a full K under that.

Some of that had to do with pitch selection.  Despite lacking velocity more than any other season in his young career, Jenks threw the fastball far more often than he had in the two seasons prior.  He also cut down drastically on his curve, throwing it less than 10 percent of the time.  Two years ago, the hammer comprised 17 percent of his pitches.

He also cut down on the use of his slider by 33 percent (21 to 14 percent), but for good reason -- opposing hitters put the bat on it far more often.

There were times it was painfully clear Jenks didn't trust his breaking stuff as much as he used to.  Example No. 1 with a bullet -- the 0-2 fastball he threw to Carlos Gomez.  I'm glad I was wrong when I said Jenks "might have thrown the pitch that ended the season," but the disgust still stands.

Jenks found his curve when it mattered most, though, striking out Jason Kubel on the second of two big curves to start the ninth inning with a 1-0 lead in Game No. 163.  Maybe he likes confusing us.

He did post a strand rate of 78.7 percent, which is the highest of his career.  That is a repeatable skill, if you see what guys like Francisco Rodriguez are able to do.  That could mean that Jenks was theoretically underachieving in 2006 and 2007.

No. 3:  Who would replace him?

There's one in-house option I would consider a natural in the ninth: Matt Thornton.  He allowed a .218/.261/.338 in unfavorable matchups, which is only unimpressive when compared to his line against lefties (.170/.256/.223).

Scott Linebrink could also work if everything in his world is hunky dory, but I wouldn't count on that.  Octavio Dotel and his homeriffic tendencies are out, but between those two, the seventh and eighth innings aren't in bad shape, theoretically.

The bigger problem is finding another lefty, which the Sox have proved doesn't grow on trees.  Primary examples include the deterioration of Boone Logan, the uselessness of Horacio Ramirez and Mike Myers, and the fact that Scott Sauerbeck was the primary lefty in Charlotte.

Still, one would think that finding a lefty to retire lefties would be an easier task than finding somebody who can nail down the ninth.

But here's the biggest question:

No. 4:  Is losing Jenks something the Sox could stomach (har!)?

This is one case where the Sox's unexpected success in 2008 could hamper them in 2009.

Jenks makes outstanding trade bait.  He's up there in talent, he checks out health-wise, and he's gotten the results, even if the means are questionable.

Furthermore, the market for closers is bare.  There's Frankie Rodriguez, coming off a record-setting year and figuring to command a sky-high price tag.  There's also Brian Fuentes, who has done an admirable job closing out games in Coors Field, although he has drifted in and out of the closer role.

So Jenks would be No. 2 on the list, and after Fuentes, nobody else is close -- especially if you think Kerry Wood can't be pried from the Cubs.  It makes all the sense in the world to dangle him considering he could make $10 million less than Rodriguez next season.

Unfortunately, given the struggles of the Sox bullpen the last two years, it's hard to see Williams giving Ozzie Guillen one less bullet in late-inning situations, when he was already as well-armed as Barney Fife over the last two months.

I wouldn't rule it out, because Williams has done crazier things.  But as I see it, Jenks would've been far more likely to be dealt if the Sox finished in third place last year instead of first.  Not that I'm complaining.

That leaves arbitration, and Williams has had mixed results bypassing the system.  Giving Matt Thornton a three-year contract with two club options to bypass his arbitration years looks brilliant; Mike MacDougal's three-year deal doesn't.

The situations aren't the same on the players' sides, though.  Thornton and MacDougal were setup men with spotty histories, and Jenks is a closer with a quality reputation.  It may turn out that the Sox try to sign Jenks through his arb years and he declines.

Going year-to-year worked well for Rodriguez.  Starting at $440,000 in his last pre-arb season, Rodriguez worked his way up to $3.775 million, to $7 million to $10 million.  Jenks isn't on that trajectory, but he deserves something like the extension Joe Nathan received before his monster contract -- something like three years, $15 million.

Given his conditioning, I think Jenks would be smart to accept it.  At the same time, I think the Sox would be better served going the arb route this year and see if Jenks' questionable numbers resolve themselves.  It may cost the Sox more in the following two years, but with Dotel coming off the books after the 2009 season, the Sox could take the hit. 

Of course, I would be open for shopping him, too, but that may be a hit the Sox can't absorb.

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A couple of brief notes:

*Clayton Richard is well aware of how ineptly he fielded his position, and is taking steps to remedy the issue.

*Rick Hahn has even more company when it comes to spurning Seattle:

The list of candidates who won't get a chance to interview for the Mariners' general manager job grew again today. The Mariners' request to talk with Al Avila, the assistant GM for the Detroit Tigers, was denied. [...]

The Mariners were denied in their attempt to speak with Avila, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn and Padres GM Kevin Towers. Three other assistant GMs -- David Forst of the A's, Jed Hoyer of the Red Sox and Chris Antonetti of the Indians -- chose to remain with their teams.

Going back to the last point in yesterday's conversation, this is basically why you can write off trade talks with the Mariners.  What a mess.

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Arizona Fal