Jose Contreras is
the eighth player to be previewed for the 2008 season...
...and he's also the main focus in
Scott Merkin's starting pitcher analysis:
Contreras, 36, holds the franchise record for most consecutive winning
decisions at 17 straight. He also has more losses than any starter in
the Majors since the second half of 2006, but finished his 2007 run
with a 4-2 record and 4.02 ERA over eight starts, following two
appearances out of the bullpen. With personal problems behind him and
his velocity back up a few mph, Contreras becomes a significant
presence among White Sox starters.
Merkin is the first to mention that Contreras' fastball is set to gain a couple ticks on the radar gun, but others have hinted that an improvement in performance should be on the way. A
Mark Gonzalez blog entry during SoxFest had Ozzie Guillen saying that Contreras will "show up in the best shape as he always does," and
Kenny Williams said that "his head is clear."
The projection systems vary fairly wildly. The Bill James Handbook, as it is for many of the Sox, is optimistic about Contreras, estimating a 4.23 ERA.
ZIPS,
CHONE and Marcel peg Contreras to be noticeably worse, with ERAs anywhere from 4.73 to 4.84.
You can see my full guess in the preview, but I have him pitching even worse. While I'd be tickled if people entered their own projections for each Sox player, I'm especially interested in what you guys expect from Contreras this year. I can see arguments for just about everything.