After the shock wore off from the deal that sent
Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney to the A's for Nick Swisher, and I came to grips with the fact that the Sox now have the worst farm system in all of baseball, here's how the other half of my brain tried to rationalize it:
1. Kenny Williams has rediscovered his balls (they're still huge).After trading the remaining cream of his drought-stricken crop, Williams must be bowlegged now.
There's nothing wrong about the players involved in the trade, because it looks like a fair deal. The issue is the timing. Had Williams started his winter with this swap, it'd be easier to be optimistic, because Williams has a pretty good track record when he goes for the gold.
The problem is that it comes after burning higher-ceiling prospects (Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter) for not-terribly-thrilling young players (Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin). That's not to say Richar and Quentin may not pay dividends, but the Sox farm system would look a bit brighter with Cunningham and Carter in the fold. That's two more projectable position players than they have now.
(And considering the cheap, short deal signed by Tadahito Iguchi, that chain of deals may have hurt the Sox more than it appeared.)
The context makes it hard to swallow, but when setting it aside for the moment, the good news is that he acquired a high-quality talent, one that doesn't require grooming, projecting or crossing fingers. It's not the whoppers that have gotten Williams in trouble (Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik). The "safe," timid moves have screwed him over, instead.
Trading two top prospects for Swisher is by no means safe -- and that could be great news.
2. People are talking about the Sox.For better or for worse, Williams has made the Sox relevant, at least for the near future. That seemed almost impossible 24 hours ago.
3. People will want to see Swisher.All the season ticketholders who griped about the return of Juan Uribe have to feel a little bit better about their investment now. It's good to keep the future in mind, but keeping the paying audience interested helps contribute to the future, too.
4. Williams may have sold high on Gio.Gonzalez dominated the Southern League, posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and leading the way in strikeouts (185 in 150 innings). But there are two truths that can't be overlooked:
- Gonzalez repeated Double-A.
- Gonzalez gave up a lot of flyballs in Birmingham's cavernous ballpark.
The first point isn't that important considering he's all of 22 years of age, but it is worth mentioning. The second point is more significant -- Gio was going to have to experience Charlotte's bandbox before the Sox could truly feel comfortable giving him a spot in the rotation, and playing in a great home run environment could've severely diminished his stock.
De Los Santos' star is still on the rise, however. He needs to learn a third pitch and tends to overthrow, but he's got the goods.
5. Swisher walks.Swisher drew 100 walks in 150 games last year -- besides Jim Thome, no other Sox player cracked 78. He also ranked
seventh in American League in pitches per plate appearance at 4.25, better than Thome. Nobody doubted that the Sox needed hitters who can make pitchers work, and now they have one more.
6. Swisher talks.In a clubhouse that likes to beat itself up when things go awry, Swisher should be a welcome addition, since he actually seems to enjoy the spotlight. Everything I've seen, read and heard indicates that he's exceptionally easy to root for, as well.
7. Swisher gives the Sox options, at the plate...A switch-hitter, Swisher
has fared better against left-handed pitching overall, but has shown more power against righties. His on-base percentage the last two years: .372 and .381, meaning that he could theoretically hit leadoff. Chances are he won't, because Ozzie Guillen likes his leadoff hitters stealing bases.
8. ...and in the field.Swisher played 59 games in center field, 57 in right and 44 at first base last year. He's by no means a gazelle, but his experience trying to cover Oakland's center field should help him in the cozier Cell.
9. Swisher hasn't had a hospitable home field yet.Oakland Alameda County Network Associates McAfee Coliseum isn't an easy place to hit, and
Swisher's splits over the last two years bear that out:
- Home: .243/.374/.455
- Road: .270/.379/.491
At Comiskey Park, he's 10-for-24. If he can keep that up, we could see some history.
10. Swisher's contract is perfectly acceptable.Here's how it breaks down:
- 2008: $3.5M
- 2009: $5.3M
- 2010: $6.75M
- 2011: $9M
- 2012: $10.25M club option
Swisher's just entering his prime now. In four years, $9 million might be the going rate for a setup man.
That's what makes this trade more bizarre than anything -- $3.5M for a highly productive, versatile, popular position player should be nothing, even for a team like Oakland -- and instead, he's shipped off for two guys who are talented, but also have to play a lot of baseball before they're actually playing baseball (De Los Santos and Gonzalez), and a guy who looks like a fourth outfielder at best (Sweeney).
Meanwhile, I'll be happy to watch Swisher on the Sox, but they're still going to be entirely too dependent on guys who haven't proven themselves (John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin to name a few) to really count them as playoff contenders, and it's hard to see that changing with virtually zero talent in Birmingham in Charlotte. Even trading Paul Konerko or Jim Thome for prospects won't alter that outlook much.
As a result, a lot of fans on both teams are going to focus more on who was lost, rather than who was acquired in the return. You don't see that very often.