Thursday, January 03, 2008 - Posts

How to like the Swisher deal in 10 easy steps

After the shock wore off from the deal that sent Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney to the A's for Nick Swisher, and I came to grips with the fact that the Sox now have the worst farm system in all of baseball, here's how the other half of my brain tried to rationalize it:

1. Kenny Williams has rediscovered his balls (they're still huge).


After trading the remaining cream of his drought-stricken crop, Williams must be bowlegged now.

More perspectives:
  • South Side Sox
  • The Bard's Room
  • Athletics Nation
  • White Sox Cards
  • BTF: Transaction Oracle
  • Chi-Town Daily News
  • There's nothing wrong about the players involved in the trade, because it looks like a fair deal.  The issue is the timing.  Had Williams started his winter with this swap, it'd be easier to be optimistic, because Williams has a pretty good track record when he goes for the gold.

    The problem is that it comes after burning higher-ceiling prospects (Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter) for not-terribly-thrilling young players (Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin).  That's not to say Richar and Quentin may not pay dividends, but the Sox farm system would look a bit brighter with Cunningham and Carter in the fold.  That's two more projectable position players than they have now.

    (And considering the cheap, short deal signed by Tadahito Iguchi, that chain of deals may have hurt the Sox more than it appeared.)

    The context makes it hard to swallow, but when setting it aside for the moment, the good news is that he acquired a high-quality talent, one that doesn't require grooming, projecting or crossing fingers.  It's not the whoppers that have gotten Williams in trouble (Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Javier Vazquez, Scott Podsednik).  The "safe," timid moves have screwed him over, instead.

    Trading two top prospects for Swisher is by no means safe -- and that could be great news.

    2. People are talking about the Sox.

    For better or for worse, Williams has made the Sox relevant, at least for the near future.  That seemed almost impossible 24 hours ago.

    3. People will want to see Swisher.


    All the season ticketholders who griped about the return of Juan Uribe have to feel a little bit better about their investment now.  It's good to keep the future in mind, but keeping the paying audience interested helps contribute to the future, too.

    4. Williams may have sold high on Gio.

    Gonzalez dominated the Southern League, posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and leading the way in strikeouts (185 in 150 innings).  But there are two truths that can't be overlooked:
    1. Gonzalez repeated Double-A.
    2. Gonzalez gave up a lot of flyballs in Birmingham's cavernous ballpark.
    The first point isn't that important considering he's all of 22 years of age, but it is worth mentioning.  The second point is more significant -- Gio was going to have to experience Charlotte's bandbox before the Sox could truly feel comfortable giving him a spot in the rotation, and playing in a great home run environment could've severely diminished his stock.

    De Los Santos' star is still on the rise, however.  He needs to learn a third pitch and tends to overthrow, but he's got the goods.

    5. Swisher walks.

    Swisher drew 100 walks in 150 games last year -- besides Jim Thome, no other Sox player cracked 78.  He also ranked seventh in American League in pitches per plate appearance at 4.25, better than Thome.  Nobody doubted that the Sox needed hitters who can make pitchers work, and now they have one more.

    6. Swisher talks.

    In a clubhouse that likes to beat itself up when things go awry, Swisher should be a welcome addition, since he actually seems to enjoy the spotlight.  Everything I've seen, read and heard indicates that he's exceptionally easy to root for, as well.

    7. Swisher gives the Sox options, at the plate...

    A switch-hitter, Swisher has fared better against left-handed pitching overall, but has shown more power against righties.  His on-base percentage the last two years: .372 and .381, meaning that he could theoretically hit leadoff.  Chances are he won't, because Ozzie Guillen likes his leadoff hitters stealing bases.

    8. ...and in the field.

    Swisher played 59 games in center field, 57 in right and 44 at first base last year.  He's by no means a gazelle, but his experience trying to cover Oakland's center field should help him in the cozier Cell.

    9. Swisher hasn't had a hospitable home field yet.

    Oakland Alameda County Network Associates McAfee Coliseum isn't an easy place to hit, and Swisher's splits over the last two years bear that out:
    • Home: .243/.374/.455
    • Road: .270/.379/.491
    At Comiskey Park, he's 10-for-24.  If he can keep that up, we could see some history.

    10. Swisher's contract is perfectly acceptable.

    Here's how it breaks down:
    • 2008: $3.5M
    • 2009: $5.3M
    • 2010: $6.75M
    • 2011: $9M
    • 2012: $10.25M club option
    Swisher's just entering his prime now.  In four years, $9 million might be the going rate for a setup man.

    That's what makes this trade more bizarre than anything -- $3.5M for a highly productive, versatile, popular position player should be nothing, even for a team like Oakland -- and instead, he's shipped off for two guys who are talented, but also have to play a lot of baseball before they're actually playing baseball (De Los Santos and Gonzalez), and a guy who looks like a fourth outfielder at best (Sweeney).

    Meanwhile, I'll be happy to watch Swisher on the Sox, but they're still going to be entirely too dependent on guys who haven't proven themselves (John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin to name a few) to really count them as playoff contenders, and it's hard to see that changing with virtually zero talent in Birmingham in Charlotte.  Even trading Paul Konerko or Jim Thome for prospects won't alter that outlook much.

    As a result, a lot of fans on both teams are going to focus more on who was lost, rather than who was acquired in the return.  You don't see that very often.

    White Sox mortgage future for Swisher

    I don't know what to say:

    In the past half hour, I've confirmed with three sources that the A's have dealt outfielder Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for three top prospects: outfielder Ryan Sweeney, left-hander Gio Gonzalez and right-hander Fautino De Los Santos.

    And it's been confirmed.

    Three initial thoughts:

    1. Does this foreshadow another deal?

    It would seem to, unless Swisher is the new center fielder.  Otherwise, he's either blocked by Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko or Jim Thome, or he's blocking Carlos Quentin, who cost a valuable prospect in Chris Carter.

    2. The Sox's top prospect: Jack Egbert.


    If that isn't scary enough, he's followed by Aaron Poreda and John Shelby, two players who haven't reached Birmingham.  Now the Sox's minor-league system is officially Astros-bad.

    3. Can Swisher pitch?

    This trade doesn't change the fact that some combination of Jose Contreras, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jack Egbert and Lance Broadway will comprise three-fifths of the rotation.  This might put a renewed emphasis on the development of Charlie Haeger, for all we know, because the Sox don't have much else coming up now.

    A lot more later, believe you me.  In fact, here it is.

    ZiPS ahoy!

    Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory has posted his ZiPS projections for the 2008 White Sox.  First impressions:

    *Jim Thome is the only hitter projected to fare better than the average first baseman, left fielder or right fielder -- and he's only projected to hit .253/.378/.487.  I think it underestimates Paul Konerko (.262/.347/.474).

    *Jermaine Dye has an enormous swing between his optimistic (.293/.367/.573) and pessimistic (.242/.297/.415) projections, although his age comparables are kinder than the ones Baseball-Reference.com suggests.  Andre "The Hawk" Dawson and Ellis "The Fun Police" Burks had at least one more outstanding year in the tank each.

    *Without looking -- between Mike MacDougal, Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton, can you guess which reliever is pegged to have the worst year?

    *Interesting comparisons:
    • Josh Fields: .259/.334/.451, 24 HR, 61 BB, 157 K
    • Joe Crede:  .263/.318/.438, 16 HR, 27 BB, 50 K
    • John Danks:  151 IP, 5.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 33 HR
    • Gavin Floyd:  161 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 29 HR
    • Gio Gonzalez:  148 IP, 6.20 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 34 HR, 127 K
    • Jack Egbert: 164 IP, 4.72 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 16 HR
    • Jason Bourgeois: .263/.315/.373, 23-for-31 in stolen bases
    • Pablo Ozuna: .271/.311/.349, 8-for-12 in SB
    • Carlos Quentin: .249/.342/.428
    • Scott Podsednik:  .262/.327/.345
    *Over/under for the young outfielders:
    1. Ryan Sweeney: .266/.330/.390.  Under.
    2. Brian Anderson: .251/.313/.395.  Under, and for another team.
    3. Jerry Owens: .261/.325/.338.  Over, but not by much.
    Overall, I think this is a pretty pessimistic set, although when you consider the age of the guys who suffered stark declines in performance, and the rookies who are having a hard time floating in the majors, all the projections are defensible.