Sunday, January 27, 2008 - Posts

Running for their lives, to their deaths

Scott Merkin turns his SoxFest spotlight onto new third base coach Jeff Cox, who the Sox wrangled in to attempt a "speed without speed" approach on the basepaths.  The team's two new outfielders, Carlos Quentin and Nick Swisher, will be key figures in the transition, Merkin writes:

[Kenny] Williams' offseason revamping program of the White Sox appears to have built in such flexibility. Nick Swisher has only four stolen bases over three full seasons and has been caught stealing five times, while Carlos Quentin has a slightly better career success rate with three stolen bases in five attempts.

Nonetheless, these two newcomers on display at SoxFest this weekend at the Palmer House Hilton know how to run the bases. They have the ability to go from first to third on a single or score from first on a double, examples of somewhat expected moves that weren't frequently pulled off by a White Sox team seemingly performing with a plodding nature during 2007's dismal showing.

Looking at the Bill James Handbook, for the hell of it:
  • Nick Swisher:
    • +12 overall score
    • Went from first to third in 15 of 32 chances.
    • Second to home in 11 of 17 chances.
    • 3-for-4 in first-to-home opportunities
    • 2006: +5
  • Carlos Quentin:
    • -5 overall score
    • No first-to-third advances in eight chances.
    • Second to home in 6 of 10 chances.
    • 1-for-4 in first-to-home opportunities
    • 2006: -3
At least as far as the last two years are concerned, Swisher is an immensely successful baserunner under this system, especially considering he gains no value from stolen bases.  Quentin, on the other hand, checks out as average at best, though he has yet to play a full season.

It'll be interesting to see if the Sox look any different on the basepaths, because it's hard to peg the overall net gain or loss before the position battles are decided.  Here's what we have right now:

SHOULD GET FASTER

Shortstop:  Orlando Cabrera rated +38, phenomenal considering he doesn't steal that many bases.  That represents an enormous upgrade over Juan Uribe, who scored -22, mainly because of his 10 percent stolen base success rate.  They don't have a category for "times hung out to dry on a hit-and-run," unfortunately.

Third base:  Josh Fields (-7) takes over for Joe Crede (-19 in 2006), presumably.  Fields played with a nagging hamstring for most of last year, which made him look like he dipped one foot in concrete at times.  He stole 28 bases in 33 attempts at Charlotte in 2006, so he should move a bit better this coming year if all is right with his leg.

At least one outfield spot:  Jerry Owens (+28) dominated Scott Podsednik (0), if he gets the call.  Nick Swisher also holds an advantage over Darin Erstad in that he has a better history of playing at 100 percent.  Erstad's one of baseball's smarter baserunners, but his body betrayed him once again last year.

WILL GET SLOWER

Designated hitter: Jim Thome is another year older, and presumably another year creakier.

First base:  Paul Konerko will continue to run like Spewey, but one who's another year older.

Catcher:  A.J. Pierzynski will continue to run like Yogi Bear, but one who's another year older with more wear and tear from squatting.

TOSS-UPS

Right field:  Jermaine Dye will probably continue to slow down, but considering his quad was in bad shape for a lot of last season, it's possible that he could be (relatively) faster.  That would require him to stay healthy, though.

Second base:  In a foot race, Danny Richar would beat Tadahito Iguchi easily.  But the Emperor knew how to run the bases, and also picked his spots to steal, going 14 of 16 in that category last year.  Stolen base success rates accounted for the entire difference between Richar's score (+3) and Iguchi's score (+15) in 2007.  If Uribe wins the spot, then throw it in the "will get slower" category.

The third outfield spot:  If Owens is relegated to fourth-outfielder duties, then Quentin would be a downgrade over Podsednik or Erstad, only in terms of running, of course.

What we do know is Cox has his work cut out for him.  The 25-man roster as it currently stands present a boatload of variables not only from player to player, but some individuals have a history of running at different speeds from week to week.

Of course, if the team can't get on base like last year, Cox won't have all that much to worry about.
posted Sunday, January 27, 2008 11:24 PM by Jim with 4 Comments

SwaggerFest

Yes, your favorite word and mine came to the forefront during the second day of SoxFest, at least in the eyes of Dave Van Dyck.  It appears five times in the article, and this is my favorite reference:

The question is whether swagger comes naturally or takes some team meetings for everyone to believe they should have it.

It's no question at all.  We all know swagger is first introduced by a member of the team, after which it is referred to a committee, where it will be discussed and put to a vote.  If approved, swagger then goes to the clubhouse, where it requires a majority vote from a quorum before it reaches the manager's desk, where it is either signed or vetoed.

Swagger never made it out of committee last year.  Stupid hot-button issues.

Some other points of interest:

OUTFIELD

*Fans demanded pie.  Ed Farmer didn't want to give it to them.

*Kenny Williams said, "I don't care about Torii Hunter."  But then Jermaine Dye answered questions about Hunter's spurning of the Sox.  Sigh.

*Ozzie Guillen said Jerry Owens could get a significant share of action in center field if he hits better against lefties.

*Guillen feels Andruw Jones is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.  Williams didn't agree.

*Carlos Quentin says rehab is going as well as rehab can go.

BULLPEN

*Williams admitted not offering arbitration to David Riske was a mistake.  Thank you.

*I don't see any reason to pick against the Minnesota Twins' relievers, but Williams said, "I'll stack up my bullpen against anyone in the division."

*Joe Cowley reports that an extension for Bobby Jenks is in the works.  I'd like to see Jenks' April velocity before forming an opinion, but there's a good discussion on it at South Side Sox.

STARTERS

*The Sox will expect more from Jose Contreras, and attributed last year's struggles to his divorce proceedings.  It's easy to brush that off, but let's not forget the effect it had on Frank Thomas.

*Contreras will be sandwiched between John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  Williams says the kids are alright.

INFIELD

*Williams denied all trade rumors involving Paul Konerko.  Konerko said he didn't really care about them, which should surprise no one.

*Greg Walker doesn't know much about Alexei Ramirez yet, but he said, "I guarantee you that by the end of spring training, I'll destroy him."  Not really.

*Guillen says he doesn't know how Juan Uribe will handle relegation to backup duties.  Hopefully they don't sell Ben & Jerry's in the Dominican Republic.  He'll be in a dogfight with Ramirez, Danny Richar and Pablo Ozuna for second base.

MISCELLANY

*In the Sun-Times' White Sox blog, which has yet to really take off, there are two entries about SoxFest, and both of them complain that rich people softened the first day of the event.  Will old money join California and Canada on Cowley's spectrum of disdain?

*Let's take note of this Ozzie quote for future reference:

"A lot of people say if you fly, you're a good leadoff hitter,'' Guillen said. "That's a plus, but we need a leadoff hitter that can get on base. That was our problem last year.''

Let that soak in for a couple reasons:

No. 1:  So far, his ideas for leadoff hitter are Jerry Owens against righties and Orlando Cabrera against lefties.  Owens' career OBP? .324.  Cabrera's?  .321.  Cabrera did post a .345 OBP last year, but that's because he hit .301.  I wouldn't count on him to be a steady presence there, but this kid, he's real fast.

No. 2:  It wasn't just a problem last year, but also the year before.  And basically since Scott Podsednik hit the DL for the first time in his Sox career.  From Aug. 13, 2005 to the end of that season, Sox leadoff hitters had a shameful .302 OBP.  From that date to the end of the 2007 season, it's a .323 OBP.

Here's a complete list of all Sox players to hit leadoff over the past 14 baseball months:
Scott Podsednik, Pablo Ozuna, Timo Perez, Ryan Sweeney, Ross Gload, Darin Erstad, Rob Mackowiak, Tadahito Iguchi, Andy Gonzalez.
What's funny about that list:  The three guys with consistently above-average OBPs -- Gload, Mackowiak and Iguchi -- combined to hit leadoff in six games between them, four fewer than Andy Gonzalez, aka the worst Sox player in recent history.  They're also no longer on the team.  At least Gonzalez isn't, either.

So basically that's all to say that I'll believe Ozzie when I see him actually put those words into action.  And I don't expect that any time soon.

*And speaking of Podsednik:

Williams also mentioned that Scott Podsednik could be close to signing a deal with another team. But even if Podsednik remained unsigned by late February, Williams would not bring him back through a Minor League deal. "I want the best for Scott Podsednik," Williams said. "And I don't like signing people who don't have a legitimate opportunity to play for us."

Ouch.
posted Sunday, January 27, 2008 3:07 AM by Jim with 3 Comments