Taking one glance at
Baseball America's Top 10 White Sox Prospects, my first thought was, "Boy, Phil Rogers must really like Duane Shaffer."
The text that accompanies the list verifies that hunch, but you don't actually have to read it -- the order gives it away. Although Rogers criticizes the Sox organization for "conservative and unproductive drafts," he uses a very conservative evaluation method to rank the prospects.
Compare his list to the one by
Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, who went tools-first:
| Goldstein | Rogers |
1. Aaron Poreda
2. John Shelby
3. Jose Martinez
4. Jack Egbert
5. Lance Broadway
6. Brian Omogrosso
7. Kyle McCulloch
8. Christian Marrero
9. John Ely
10. Salvador Sanchez
11. Charlie Haeger
|
1. Aaron Poreda
2. Lance Broadway
3. Jack Egbert
4. Jose Martinez
5. Chris Getz
6. John Ely
7. Juan Silverio
8. John Shelby
9. Adam Russell
10. Kyle McCulloch
|
With the exception of Juan Silverio, who is
16 years old, he favors the low-ceiling, predictable players whenever possible. Aaron Poreda's fastball and Jose Martinez's wide range of skills just happen to be too promising to ignore.
Chris Getz over John Shelby? Shelby cracked a .500 slugging percentage in Kannapolis as a second baseman-turned-center fielder. Getz, an average second baseman defensively, has never slugged higher than .397 at any level.
(Silverio also ranks ahead of Shelby, even though he hasn't surfaced yet. Rogers has been on that bandwagon for a while, mentioning him in
the Hardball blog post where he also suggested giving Orlando Cabrera a four-year, $50 million contractd.)
Lance Broadway over Jack Egbert? Broadway had that one good start against the Royals, but Egbert has outperformed him at every level, with superior strikeout and walk rates.
Adam Russell over, say, Brian Omogrosso? You can sub other names for Omogrosso (Oneli Perez comes to mind), but Russell became the darling of spring training for approximately two weeks before losing velocity. He didn't stand out as a starter, and while he pitched better as a reliever, he still walked too many guys.
I will say that I am as unenthusiastic about Kyle McCulloch as Rogers, but I can't say I understand the order otherwise. At least it makes more sense than his projected 2011 lineup below his prospect list, which has Joe Crede as the Sox's third baseman several years from now.