Chris De Luca's column in the Sun-Times today is a prime example of why I'm surprised Tim Raines receives so little support in Hall of Fame voting:
In return, he landed veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera and scrappy
outfielder Nick Swisher. No doubt, these are two nice pieces to the
puzzle. But they would've looked better had they been the trimmings to
a much larger offseason prize. Meanwhile, the Sox still don't have a
proven center fielder or a leadoff hitter who can ignite this aging and
plodding lineup.
And with each tick that brings us closer to spring training, you
could make a more compelling argument that the Sox were better off with
Scott Podsednik -- plummeting stock and all -- than a question mark in
the leadoff spot.
So many people consider "leadoff hitter" a position like left field is a position that it's hard to explain why Raines doesn't get credit for doing both extremely well. Alas, we'll have plenty of time to discuss this next year, so there's no point in using keystrokes on it now.
Instead, let's use them on another thing that confuses me greatly -- hand-wringing over the lack of a leadoff hitter.
The Sox's quixotic quest for a leadoff hitter is a result of the kind of thinking that gets Kenny Williams in trouble in the first place, seeking "fits" based on very specific characteristics instead of accumulating good ballplayers and letting the chips fall where they may. There's no doubt Ozzie Guillen should receive some of the blame, too, but Williams is providing the blanks in place of ammo.
Here's what The Answer (aka Scott Podsednik, since he's not a "question mark" in the above excerpt) and his popless, speedy friends have achieved at the top of the Sox order the last two years:
- 2006: .273/.332/.368; 13th in OBP, 11th in OPS; 42/68 SB
- 2007: .259/.321/.328; 13th in OBP, last in OPS; 40/55 SB
In the first year, not only did they sport a putrid OBP in the leadoff spot, but their stolen base success rate (62 percent) was well below the break-even rate (73-75 percent). If they avoided outs at the plate, they tried to make up for it on the basepaths. And somehow they managed to make matters worse the following year.
That said, I don't see how anybody could complain about the lack of a leadoff hitter, when the leadoff hitters the Sox have deployed have failed so miserably. In fact, there are far more reasons to feel encouraged about the Sox's leadoff options this year than in the two years prior, even ignoring the high OBP/low speed issue:
1. Jerry Owens. Stop laughing. I don't think it's a good idea to rely on him to set the table, but at worst, he's Podsednik for 1/10th of the price. That's already an upgrade in and of itself. Three more points in his favor:
- A .350 OBP against righties in his second stint in 2007: It's not mindblowing, but above-average and a significant improvement over the last two years if he can only maintain it.
- Healthy legs: Owens' injuries have stayed in his upper body.
- Good defense: Maybe he can't throw, but he can go and get it.
Here's perhaps the best reason to feel good about Owens being around: Barring any further moves, he won't be starting. Nothing against Owens, who has his uses, but playing every day at the top of the order isn't one of them.
2. Doubles. White Sox leadoff hitters had 25 doubles over 679 at-bats in 2007. Carlos Quentin, who has not yet nearly reached his potential as a major-league player, owns 29 doubles over 395 at-bats.
Orlando Cabrera (35 doubles in 638 ABs last year) and Nick Swisher (36 in 539), two other possibilites to bat ahead of Jim Thome, also have better luck getting themselves to second base without having to steal.
3. Handedness. Left-handed hitters Podsednik, Owens, Darin Erstad and Rob Mackowiak combined to lead off 142 of 162 games next year. It often put Sox in a bind against southpaws, since Tadahito Iguchi's ability to hit lefties came and went, and Thome is in the midst of a rapid decline against them as well.
With Owens (lefty), Quentin and Cabrera (righties) and Swisher (a switch-hitter), Ozzie can afford to mix-and-match, with the added bonus of leaving his best hitter less exposed to matchup situations.
Now I'm not sure who I want hitting first for the Sox next year at this juncture. Performances during spring training and Quentin's rehabilitation after offseason rotator cuff surgery will go a long way in deciding that. I just don't see much reason to worry about it, especially in comparison to previous seasons.
However, if I had my druthers, I don't get why they can't just cut out the middle man and bat Thome second. While it's understood that athletes are creatures of habit, American League leadoff men only lead off once a game -- in the first inning. After that, there's virtually no difference.
The Sox made a habit of awarding the most plate appearances in a game to the players least worthy of them. They could easily reverse that phenomenon and give them the fewest by slotting them ninth, then move the rest of the lineup one slot ahead. Their "leadoff hitter" would still be batting two slots ahead of their biggest bat, so there's virtually no difference.
The only drawback -- aside from a new lineup role completely blowing a ballplayer's mind, which is possible -- is that Thome might have one runner to drive home instead of two in the first inning. Not only is that putting the cart miles before the horse, but I think I'd rather have one fewer out before my best hitter in a late-game situation.
Of course, this sounds too radical for the Sox, especially since Ozzie is far from innovative with his lineup card. To put it another way, Ozzie's gameplan is best suited for the 1960s. It would just be nice to see the White Sox, an American League team, fully enjoy the benefits a designated hitter allows. Instead, the Sox seem to pretend a pitcher is batting ninth.
Making matters worse, it seems like they would love to bat him first if he's fast enough.