posted on Wednesday, September 24, 2008 1:00 PM
by
Jim
Sox-Twins Thunderdome, Game 2: Buehrle vs. Blackburn
Mark Buehrle (14-11, 3.87 ERA) vs. Nick Blackburn (10-10, 4.15 ERA)
Forecast: Overcast with low ceiling
The numbers:
| Buehrle vs. MIN |
W/L |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
K |
WHIP |
ERA |
| May
7: 1-13 |
L |
5.2 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2.12 |
11.18 |
| June
7: 11-2 |
W |
8 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1.00 |
1.13 |
| July 28: 0-7 |
L |
5 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1.80 |
7.20 |
| Total |
1-2 |
18.2 |
24 |
13 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
10 |
1.55 |
5.79 |
Buehrle beats:- Alexei Casilla: 2-for-10, 1 BB
- Joe Mauer: 4-for-18, 1 BB, 3 K
- Justin Morneau: .229/.256/.429 in 35 ABs.
Buehrle struggles with:- Mike Redmond: 14-for-28, 2 2B, 0 BB
- Carlos Gomez: 5-for-8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR.
- Michael Cuddyer: .304/.333/.493, 7 2B, 2 HR in 69 ABs.
Surprising stat: The active Twins hitters have a combined line of .321/.345/.485 off Buehrle.
| Blackburn vs. CHW |
W/L |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
K |
WHIP |
ERA |
| April
7: 4-7 |
ND |
5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
1.80 |
3.60 |
| April
30: 4-3 |
W |
6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1.50 |
4.50 |
| May 6: 1-7 |
L |
6 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
1.67 |
6.00 |
| June 6: 6-10 |
L |
4 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2.00 |
15.75 |
| Total |
1-2 |
21 |
30 |
17 |
16 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
1.71 |
6.86 |
Key stat: Individual hitters have too small a sample size, but Sox hitters are .305/.359/.453 off Blackburn this season.
Analysis: Entering this series, all the weight was on Buehrle's shoulders. A win for Javier Vazquez would've been nice, but he drew the toughest opponent and doesn't have much of a history in big games. The season can swing on this outing.
In theory, Blackburn is the easiest draw because of two trends:
- As shown above, the Sox have hit him harder every time out.
- So has the rest of the league as of late.
Blackburn owns a 5.24 ERA since Aug. 1, and has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts. He's coming off his worst outing of the season, in which he allowed nine baserunners over 1 1/3 innings in
an 11-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays Friday.
Ron Gardenhire and Co.
are somewhat concerned about Blackburn's workload, but there's no real reason to believe fatigue is the reason for his recent struggles over the fact that he has the thinnest margin of error on the Twins' staff. He like Lance Broadway with a little extra zip on his fastball, and we've seen how Broadway can get racked when he has misadventures high in the zone.
There are no such concerns with Buehrle as of late, because he has been stout in September.
He's 3-1 in four starts this month, with the loss coming on six innings of two-run ball. Not only are his 2.13 ERA and .237 BAA impressive this month, but he's also jacked up his strikeout rate, fanning 21 over 25 1/3 innings.
There is one trend going against Buehrle, however -- he hasn't pitched well in the Metrodome.
Looking at the last three seasons, here's his line:
2-1, 4.76 ERA, 17 IP, 29 H, 16 R, 9 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 2 HR.
The first two numbers are OK in such a small sample size. But remember
Buehrle's Mother's Day of 2006, when he became the first pitcher in over 100 years to give up seven runs in the first inning and still get the win? Six of those runs were unearned, sparing his ERA. On the other hand, that doesn't mask his 2.06 WHIP, which is ugly no matter how you slice it.
There's one common bond between each of those three Metrodome starts -- abysmal defense.
In that Mother's Day start, the Sox failed to turn not one, but two double plays that first inning. A Josh Fields misplay in left field put Buehrle in trouble
Sept. 21 the following year, and
Buehrle's disastrous start in the dome earlier this year featured a dropped throw by Alexei Ramirez, though gopher balls were the biggest culprit.
Buehrle rebounded from one bad start against the Twins earlier in the Cell by smashing a dugout heater with a bat. And while
Buehrle is 13-7 with a 3.47 ERA since, I'm not sure property damage can be counted upon as a cure the next time around.
That said, it's inexcusable for Ozzie Guillen to put anything besides his best defense behind Buehrle, which chiefly means no General Soreness in center. It should be Brian Anderson, but I'd take Jerry Owens, Nick Swisher, Dewayne Wise, Jason Bourgeois -- I really don't care as long as it's not Ken Griffey Jr.
If Guillen makes that change, then it's all on Buehrle to get the job done in the biggest game of the Sox's season to date. That's precisely why they're paying him $56 million over the next four years, and precisely why they drastically limited his spring workload. Put the good gloves behind him, and he has no excuses.