Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

White Sox, Twins enter the Thunderdome

It's come down to this.

The Twins versus the White Sox.  The Piranhas versus the... Cats(?).  "Smell 'em" versus "Paws up."  Hubert H. Humphrey versus Adlai Stevenson.

This time around, the last of that list may be the most fitting, because neither team seems all that eager to take the AL Central. 

The White Sox, with an uninspiring offense and a bullpen in shambles, have staggered to a 9-10 record in the final month of the season -- and have still been able to pad their lead by two full games thanks to the Twins' 7-12 September mark.

Nobody can complain about the Sox facing Minnesota at the wrong time, as the trademarks of a Ron Gardenhire-managed team have vanished.  The pitching staff not only sports a higher ERA in September than any other month (4.89), but also the highest home run and walk rates -- by far.  Add in an excess of late-inning mental mistakes, and a team that supposedly never beats itself is doing just that.

On the other hand, the Sox find themselves in the wrong place.  When the air conditioning is on, the Sox go cold -- they're 2-12 in domes this season, including a 1-5 mark in the Metrodome.

You could say the Sox are due for a series victory indoors.  That would give them a 3 1/2-game lead over the Twins, which means one win over the Indians (or a Twins loss) in the season's final series would hand them the division.  More optimistically, a sweep would allow them to celebrate on turf, which is exactly what Ozzie Guillen is aiming for: 


The last time Guillen mentioned "poison" with the Twins, it was used for lauding Johan Santana.  The change in tone is appreciated.

A couple of Twins blogs have explored all the possible outcomes of this series -- Twinkie Town is apprehensive, while Aaron Gleeman is more on the optimistic side.

Despite the errors and the losses, Twins fans are justified to look for light through the plastic ceiling -- and they're the same reasons that have been around all season:

No. 1:  The home record.  The Twins are 49-26 at the Metrodome, including a 3-3 mark this month.  They're 4-9 away in September, so they're aching to make up for the road struggles.

No. 2:  Their clutch hitting hasn't let up. They're hitting .296/.368/.413 with runners in scoring position this month.  On one hand, that's dropped their season line to .311/.385/.454.  On the other hand, not only do they still lead the league in that category by a large margin, but that .296 average would also be good enough to top the AL.

No. 3:  Mauer and Morneau.  Why Joe Mauer doesn't get more MVP talk is beyond me -- he's hitting .391 this month with a .444 on-base percentage.  Morneau has had a down month (.805 OPS), but is still slugging a solid .481 and has a history of crushing White Sox pitching. 

Add in the Twins' team speed on turf and the Sox's inability to manage opposing running games, and the Sox will have their hands full.  So let's tighten our belts, raise our paws and look at the first pitching matchup:

Game 1: Javier Vazquez (12-14, 4.32 ERA) vs. Scott Baker (9-4, 3.65 ERA).

Forecast: Room temperature.

The numbers:

Vazquez vs. MIN	W/L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
April 7: 7-4	W	7	7	3	3	0	1	8	1.14	3.86
June 6: 10-6	ND	5.1	9	4	4	1	2	4	1.88	6.75
Total	1-0	12.1	16	7	7	1	3	12	1.54	5.11

Vazquez dominates:

• Jason Kubel: 2-for-21, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• Nick Punto: 5-for-21, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K

Vazquez struggles with:

• Justin Morneau: .355/.444/.923, 4 2B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 3 K in 39 AB
  
• Michael Cuddyer: .343/.410/.543, 2 HR in 35 ABs.

Surprising stat:  Delmon Young, career owner of a 1:4 ratio of walks to strikeouts, has only struck out twice in 15 at-bats against Vazquez.

Baker vs. CHW	W/L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
April 9: 12-5	W	5	5	3	3	3	1	7	1.20	5.40
July 31: 10-6	ND	6	5	4	4	1	3	8	1.33	6.00
Total	1-0	11	10	7	7	4	4	15	1.27	5.73

Baker dominates:

• Jim Thome: 2-for-14, 1 HR, 0 BB, 8 K
• Jermaine Dye:  1-for-11, 0 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Juan Uribe: 1-for-9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Baker struggles with:

• Orlando Cabrera: 8-for-18, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
• Joe Crede: 5-for-8, 1 2B, 1 HR

Key stat: Baker has struck out White Sox hitters 31 times, while walking only seven.

Analysis:  Both pitchers are coming off miserable efforts on short rest.  Vazquez flopped against the Yankees, working his shortest outing of the year (3 2/3 innings).  Sadly, he still had to throw a ton of pitches (88).

Baker, meanwhile, was forced into throwing on three days' rest thanks to a doubleheader, and lasted only 4 2/3 innings in a loss to Cleveland.  That snapped a streak of five consecutive quality starts in which he owned a 2.38 ERA over 34 2/3 innings.

Both pitchers are on regular rest, but Baker has been excellent outside of his last start this month; Vazquez has been on and off all year.

I have a feeling that's why Guillen is trying to challenge Vazquez's manhood, recently saying that Vazquez is "not an ace."  Hawk Harrelson's labeling of Javy as the most impressive under-.500 pitcher isn't a compliment, either, and the numbers back that up -- very few pitchers underperform their peripherals as often as Vazquez.

Vazquez has a few things in his favor:

No. 1:  The Sox have actually hit Baker decently.  The only reason Baker managed to get a no-decision his last time around was thanks to the fluky set of events that led to Guillen pulling his players off the field, and the collapse by White Sox pitching afterward.

No. 2:  Baker's been wilder as of late.  Fun fact: The Sox are 25-37 when they walk two or fewer times.  (For comparison's sake, the Twins, a less patient team, are 35-37).  It's important to note that Baker has walked 3.32 batters per nine innings in his last 11 starts, compared to a measly 1.48 over his first 20.

No. 3:  Vazquez might have learned something from Thursday.  Steve Stone said Vazquez's arm angle was lower, causing his pitches to flatten out.  The Cheat also said he was flying open, so no matter how you slice it, there were mechanical issues abound.  If you'll excuse some seat-of-the-pants analysis, perhaps -- and I can't stress perhaps enough -- coming off that bad start will help both his mental memory and muscle memory.  Perhaps.

If Guillen is (accidentally) right, Vazquez isn't likely to pull this one off -- especially once you factor in 1) the sputtering Sox offense and 2) the Metrodome.  But that should give Vazquez even more motivation, because this is likely his biggest start since Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS.  A win tonight would go a long way in restoring his reputation.

Controlling Morneau will be key.  After Vazquez's last start in which he served up two gopher balls to Bobby Abreu, the YES field reporter talked to Abreu about his success against Javy.  The two homers gave him nine in 71 career at-bats.

Abreu said something to the extent of knowing that Vazquez is likely to challenge him with inside fastballs, so he comes to the plate ready to turn on one.  It wouldn't surprise me if Morneau has the same mindset, because of his 12 homers in the Metrodome this season, none have been hit to the opposite field.