posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 11:39 PM
by
Jim
Don't wait 'til next year ... yet
Introducing
an argument I used to believe in:
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox: His predicted OPS, which looks at balls in play and where they're hit, is .882. His actual is a relatively puny .749, making him the unluckiest predicted OPS hitter in the sport. Use that .882 as the baseline for 2009 projections.
That's not to say it never was true -- when he was hitting line drives at a 24-percent rate while only batting an even .200,
"unlucky" was the only way to classify him. But two things have happened:
No. 1: His line drive rate has plummeted. Check out
the bottom of his FanGraphs page -- it's been in a free-fall for most of the second half.
No. 2: His K rate has skyrocketed. He's struck out once every three plate appearances in September, with the low point being three consecutive backwards Ks over two games in which he came off the bench.
It's a pretty good summary of what we're seeing. The eye test isn't always trustworthy (for instance, I thought Swisher struck out looking far more often than
once in his last nine), but they're not failing us here.
There's not much reason to start thinking of 2009 right now, but I don't see how an .882 OPS is a baseline projection. After what he's looked like this season, I'd be turning cartwheels for anything over .850 -- and I was the least flexible kid in my gym class all four years.
Swisher's not the only one sucking eggs in September, mind you. Check out these sterling lines (not including Thursday):
- A.J. Pierzynski: .200/.234/.244.
- Jim Thome: .174/.278/.370.
- Alexei Ramirez: .218/.283/.400.
- Jermaine Dye: .259/.338/.328
And I was going to mention how bad Horacio Ramirez has been, but
the Cheat beat me to it. Two additional thoughts:
- Lefties were hitting him at a .333 clip before today.
- If your life depended on it, which Sox lefty would you rather see: 2008 Ramirez or 2007 Mike Myers?
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But hell, while we're looking at next year, here's some good news: Orlando Cabrera will be worth two draft picks. He's been the most dependable White Sox hitter over the course of the month, hitting .361/.435/.443 in September.
His season numbers are up to .281/.336/.369. Couple the stretch drive performance with his above-average defense, and somebody's going to sign him.
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I'm heading to Kansas City Friday morning for more pain. Get ready for more Twitter.