September 2008 - Posts

Division champs

I never want to hear anybody knock the homer ever again.

A pre-game plea

Not since Game 2 of the 2005 World Series have I wanted the Sox to win a game this badly.  And in some ways, today's do-or-die date with the Minnesota Twins has its own kind of pressures.  I think I heard somewhere that There's Only One October, but there aren't many one-game playoffs on the last day of September, either.

The Sox don't only find their season at stake, but perhaps their identity  and credibility as well.

Because they have a larger payroll, market and often times mouths, the Sox often come up short in head-to-head matchups with the Twins -- even though the Sox are ahead 37-36 in the season series over the past four seasons.  Fans, media, and even some in the White Sox organization go to bizarre lengths to hail their new Minnesota overlords, when the actual game results point to an outstanding rivalry between two teams that are evenly matched despite radically different styles.

"The Minnesota Twins" as they exist in the minds of Hawk Harrelson, Ozzie Guillen, Phil Rogers and others, set an impossible standard.  When they're good, it's because they were raised right and coached well.  Their homers are never meaningless, and stupid baserunning is only for the right reasons.  When they decide to lose, it's because they're trying too hard.

In reality, the Twins are just like any other team.  They have guys who swing at junk, run at wrong times, can't field reachable balls, and a coach who sometimes makes questionable bullpen and playing time decisions.  Somehow, they lost as many games as the Sox.

It frustrates me, not as a Sox fan, but as a baseball fan.  This is a fascinating rivalry, and yet the constant intellectual dishonesty that surrounds it is simply nauseating.

That said, a win tonight would be a load off my mind.  But even though my wishes hold considerable clout in the White Sox clubhouse, I don't want them to do it for me.  The White Sox have plenty of reasons to do it for themselves.

They can:

Prove that playing longball isn't an immoral way to win a ballgame.  As we talked about yesterday, the Twins are 8-1 against the White Sox in the concrete confines of the Metrdome, and the Sox are 7-2 against Minnesota on the Cell's soil.  That seems like both organizations know the inside track for boosting their records, but somehow it manages to be a black mark on the White Sox's character.

The last time the Twins visited the South Side, the Sox completed a four-game sweep by the score of 40-15.  The Sox outhomered the Twins 11-5.  Can somebody care to tell me what's wrong with that?

Score a point for honesty:  Guillen ruffled some feathers by dismissing Nick Blackburn's pitching performance Saturday, even though Blackburn held the Sox down long enough to get the win.  Given a chance to take back his words, Guillen declined:

"I'll take my chance against him if he pitches the way he pitched last time," Guillen said Monday.

"He didn't pitch well. When you've got the bullpen warming up in the second inning … we just didn't approach him the right way."

Guillen may not have been sporting, but he wasn't wrong, either.  It's a gamble, because if Blackburn earns another win, there will be plenty of people ready to shove Ozzie's foot in his mouth.  At this point, though, I'd take the tough talk over tipping a cap.  The latter never helped the Sox hit Johan Santana any better.

Stave off budding, irritating rhetoric:  After destroying the White Sox, future superstar Carlos Gomez went 1-for-11 in the series against the Kansas City Royals.  The lone hit was a single.  He struck out three times and grounded into one double play.  He did steal a base, but he did not score a run.

The Sox have yet to realize that Gomez swings at almost everything, while the Royals have apparently lapped them in this field.  If the Sox can actually learn from their mistakes this series, perhaps it'll make a dent in a reputation that is largely undeserved up to this point.

Put a feather in their caps that's nearly impossible to top:  When the Twins swept the Sox in September 2003, it virtually ended the Sox's season, as they never challenged again.  Likewise, the sweep at the Metrodome last weekend nearly spelled their demise.

But the Twins, for all their various successes, have never been the one to deliver the knockout punch in these races.  If the Twins succeed this time, the Sox (and us fans) will never hear the end of it.  But if the Sox can defeat them in the must-win of all must-wins, it pretty much refutes any claims to the Sox's perceived inferiority in and of itself.

If it were any other AL Central team, a loss wouldn't bother me all that much.  Injuries and slumps have basically declawed this team, and even if they do advance to the playoffs, they'll still be at a huge disadvantage against the Tampa Bay Rays for numerous reasons.

But because it's the Twins, I'm about as on edge as I get watching baseball.  If the Sox fall short, it'll affect my enjoyment of future games.  The last thing we need is an actual, legitimate reason for those around the Sox to tout the Twins, and even though we have no impact on the outcome, we're going to be the collateral damage.

The commercial that shows the Sox fans holding up the signs thanking fans is a nice gesture.  But given what's at stake, the only way they can show us we're appreciated is by winning this game.

Alexei's slam sends Sox to 163rd game



The vital statistics on Gary Glover's first and only pitch to Alexei Ramirez Monday night, which he belted into the left-field seats for his fourth grand slam this season:

Type: Changeup.

Speed:  89 m.p.h.

Location:  Belt-high, over the heart of the plate.

Time of death:  6:25 p.m. CST.

By the way, that pose is the picture of the season, and all the major media outlets agree.

***************************

It never fails to amaze me that six months and 162 games sometimes aren't enough to separate two teams.  Alas, Game No. 163 is required to figure out which team will represent the AL Central in the playoffs.

At this point, the Sox have nearly exhausted every trick in the bag.  Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd have delivered on short rest, and now it's John Danks' turn to be a mensch on only three days' rest.  Danks is only coming off his second-worst outing of the season.

And, of course, his worst outing of the season came against the Minnesota Twins, who bombarded him for seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings April 9.  His first two starts in his career against the Twins were solid; the rest have been shaky at best.

Danks has his work cut out for him, but there are two reasons for hope:

No. 1:  Mark Buehrle beat a team that routinely beat him in the past just two days ago.

No. 2:  Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks might finally have some help.

Not that there's reason to breathe easy when Ozzie Guillen has to go to the bullpen, but there are finally signs of life beyond two relievers -- especially from the big money guys.

Scott Linebrink:  He struck out the side in an inning of work Monday night, and it wasn't a fluke.  His average fastball cracked 93 during his appearance, a full mile per hour faster than his previous appearance, when he was roped around the park by Cleveland.  He also displayed excellent location with his curveball, which gives him the out pitch he's sorely lacked since his return.

The only question is whether his mysterious shoulder issue will allow him to go that hard two days in a row.

Octavio Dotel:  Keep your fingers crossed, but Dotel has thrown five perfect innings over his last four appearances with eight strikeouts.  He got two routine flyouts from two dangerous right-handed batters Monday.

In a perfect world, Guillen wouldn't have to go to either of these guys in a high-leverage situation.  But given how nothing has come easy for the Sox this year, there's no reason to start expecting a relaxing night now.

***************************

The White Sox want their fans to wear black for the one-game playoff, which doesn't sit well with me for a few reasons.

For one, black is a mourning color, meaning they almost want Sox fans to show up for a funeral.  That's certainly what happened for Georgia fans, when the Bulldogs came out in black jerseys only to get blown out by Alabama Saturday.

And Black Tuesday after Dow Jones fell 777 points in one day?  Add it all up, and it's a little bit too doom-and-gloomy for my tastes, though your mileage may vary.

White Sox live another day, thanks to Buehrle

The greatest moment of Sunday's must-win victory over the Cleveland Indians wasn't any of the four double-play balls Mark Buehrle induced.

Nor was it Paul Konerko's fourth homer in three games, or Jermaine Dye's bloop single.

It was, hands-down, a three- to four-second long shot of this guy rocking the Chelexei t-shirt during a 2-2 count on Grady Sizemore in the fifth inning:



Thanks for your support, whoever you are.

*********************

In case all the questions during spring training were never officially resolved, I'm going to go out on a limb and make a couple of bold statements:

Mark Buehrle isn't hurt.  And limiting his workload in Tucson was probably a smart idea.

Buehrle rendered the fears about his pitch count and the Cleveland lineup unwarranted with seven brilliant innings on short rest, without which the Sox wouldn't be playing Game No. 162 later today.  One outing after throwing the most pitches all season (121), Buehrle went out and threw his second-highest pitch total of the season with 111.  He didn't look any worse for the wear.

He also reversed some slides with his season totals in some categories.  To list a handful:
  • 15 wins (most since 2005)
  • 35 starts (most since 2004)
  • 218 2/3 innings (most since 2005)
  • 140 strikeouts (most since 2005)
  • 1.55 groundball/flyball ratio (most ever)
  • 34 double plays (most ever)
Most importantly, he pitched well in September for the first time since 2005:

Year
W-L
ERA
G
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
2006
1-2
6.67
5
28.1
46
22
21
8
7
13
1.87
2007
1-0
5.12
3
19.1
27
12
11
3
6
10
1.71
2008
4-1
2.29
6
39.1
39
10
10
3
10
30
1.25

After Buehrle got rocked in Kansas City to start August, it appeared that his light spring might not have made any difference.  He finished the month just about as poorly as he started it with a beating in Boston.

But when the calendar flipped to September, Buehrle flipped the switch.  The result is probably the ballsiest string of regular-season starts since Jose Contreras three years ago.

So Year One of the unprecedented four-year pitcher contract can be called an unqualified success.  Making it look even better is the fact the pitcher Buehrle outpitched Barry Zito, the off-speeding lefty he was most compared to, in the first year of his contract last year, not to mention Zito's complete collapse this season.

Zito lost 25 innings, five wins and gained 0.70 on his ERA, making him a below-average pitcher as his seven-year, $126 million contract was just getting started.  Buehrle, on the other hand, earned every penny of his raise, and for exactly $50 million less of a commitment.

And speaking of committment, as Buehrle closes the book on his 2008 season, he'll also say goodbye to his complete no-trade rights for 18 months.  Between the end of the season and July 16, 2010, Buehrle will only be able to block a trade to select teams, so Kenny Williams could technically deal the suddenly affordable Buehrle if he cared to.  Not that I think he'd do it, but I'm just sayin'.

Vazquez reaches 200 strikeouts, crucial losses

It's fitting that Javier Vazquez struck out exactly five batters in his  ugly, abbreviated start Saturday night against Cleveland, because it gave him exactly 200 strikeouts.

For most other White Sox pitchers, that would be considered a huge accomplishment.  He joins Tom Bradley and Ed Walsh as the only pitchers in franchise history to strikeout 200 hitters in consecutive seasons, and they needed far more innings.

For Vazquez, though, that shiny round number serves as further reminder that he routinely underachieves for a pitcher with his stuff and peripherals; the loss to the Indians is more evidence for the crowd that believes Vazquez lacks the balls to pitch in big games.

I don't care to pursue the latter point because two years ago, Vazquez and Freddy Garcia were the only starters who showed up in August and September while the Sox were fighting for the playoffs.  Over the stretch of 10 starts between the beginning of August and the Sox's elimination from the playoffs, Vazquez averaged 6 1/2 innings and a 3.18 ERA, with better than a strikeout per inning.

Vazquez was abandoned by the Sox offense, though.  The team went 2-8 in those starts, averaging 2.25 runs in the losses.  Labor Day that year summed up the story.  Vazquez went the distance, throwing a three-hitter and striking out 11, and yet he lost a 1-0 game because the Sox couldn't hit Kason Gabbard.

So that's why I'm not a big fan of the armchair psychology surrounding the Vazquez situation.  It's possible, maybe even likely, that Vazquez has a mental block that causes him to throw the ball differently and miss spots as badly as he did Saturday night.  But the record shows that he's 1-1 when it comes to performing well enough in pennant races for the Sox, so the "Vazquez always flops" narrative isn't even close to true, and I don't know enough about what's inside Javy's gray matter to accurately assess the gray area.

On the other hand, I am beginning to believe Vazquez will be traded in the offseason -- and going further, it could be the most contentious winter development.  There are just a lot of things adding up here, two of them relating directly to Vazquez.

First, there was Ozzie Guillen's challenge last weekend, when he called Vazquez a good-but-not-great pitcher who often fails to rise to the occasion. On its face, I don't think there was much mystery with what he was trying to do -- get Vazquez to produce a momentum-changing outing

But because I was just coming back from a day of travel, I didn't give much thought to a big question:

"What if he's right?"

Guillen pulled a similar move with Damaso Marte in the second half of the 2005 season, when he called out the erratic lefty for basically asking out due to an alleged phantom injury.  But that's not quite the same thing, because 1) Guillen was angry, whereas this was calculated, and 2) relievers can be hidden to avoid big situations.

No, this is more like what happened to Pedro Martinez when he said the New York Yankees were his "daddy" a few years back.  Except Javy didn't say he struggled in big games himself -- his manager said it for him.

Martinez never pitched well against the Yankees, but had the fortune of his team pulling off a historic comeback (you may have heard about it), which covered it up and then some.  Vazquez, who was one of the prominent players in the Yankees' Game 7 loss that year, will not be granted such a reprieve.

When you look at Guillen's quote in hindsight, the risk-reward balance tilted heavily toward the former.  If Vazquez proves him wrong, then Guillen gets the credit; if Vazquez lives down to his label, then it's hell for him.

I wonder if Ozzie thought that through -- and if he did, why he chose to say it.  Marte was sent packing after the 2005 season, so ulterior motives could be possible.

Then, Vazquez and A.J. Pierzynski exchanged words after Asdrubal Cabrera roped a fat 2-1 fastball to the right-field corner for a bases-clearing triple Saturday night.  For all the dick moves A.J. pulls, having a public spat on the field with his pitchers doesn't happen.

Pierzynski's people skills leave a lot to be desired, so it's probably not smart to read a lot into this.  But if Vazquez frustates his manager by underachieving, it stands to reason that his catcher could have a similar distaste when he can't hit the mitt.

Factor in those developments with more indirect things like Kenny Williams wanting to look in players' eyes during the Twins series, and it's painting a picture of sorts right now.  It's not necessarily saying Vazquez's White Sox days are done, but considering Vazquez has thrown three piss-poor starts in a row -- and Ozzie has started him twice on short rest -- they haven't made his road ahead on the South Side any easier.

***********************

But Vazquez is done for the season, pending further notice.  Now all eyes are on Mark Buehrle.

Unlike Javy, Buehrle has already earned his horse card.  He's 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA (4 ER in 13 1/3 IP) on short rest this season, including six strong innings last Friday against the Royals.  He was also the least of the Sox's problems against the Twins, pitching seven strong albeit grueling innings.

Unfortunately, his effort Tuesday doesn't exactly bode well for today.  For one, he's coming off a 121-pitch outing, which didn't only mark a season high in pitches, but also his highest pitch count since June 2, 2004.

Then there are his struggles against Cleveland.  He's given up 14 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings this year against the Tribe, with seven walks and four strikeouts.  Furthermore, his problems go back a couple of years.  Here's his line against the Indians since 2006:

W-L
ERA
G
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
1-5
6.60
12
60
83
47
44
11
20
26
1.72

In a scramble for silver lining, he's been awful, great and awful in three starts against the Indians.  Technically, it's time for another great one.

Then again, Sox relievers may wipe out any good he does, anyway.  God, they're awful.

Three years and still no relief in sight

One of the more fascinating wrinkles of the 2008 season is that despite investing more than $10 million in the bullpen, the White Sox keep finding themselves in the same situation of not having enough relief help.  At no point was that more clear than the fifth inning of Friday's 11-8 loss to the Cleveland Indians.

If nothing else, it validated Ozzie Guillen's strategy in Thursday night's extra-inning debacle in the finale of the Twins series, in which he used only Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks for extended innings.  Jenks may have faltered, but watching the other relievers throw Friday, Jenks in his third inning probably gave the Sox a better chance of winning than the other relievers on their first batter.

(Octavio Dotel may be the exception, as he managed to throw just about every pitch where he wanted it, whether fastball or slider.  But he's not the guy I want on the mound in a walk-off situation, given his recent problems both in close games and with the gopher ball.)

Kenny Williams has had three different bullpen-building strategies backfire in three straight years.  He went from strike-throwers (Cliff Politte, Neal Cotts, Dustin Hermanson) to big arms (David Aardsma, Andy Sisco, Mike MacDougal) to expensive veterans (Dotel, Scott Linebrink) and aside from a great month here and there, all his visions have flopped.

Worse yet, there's no immediate help on the way.  Adam Russell appeared to be most likely to be an effective reliever of the Charlotte corps, and he hasn't been used since Sept. 9.  Outside of major leaps by a Brian Omogrosso-type, the Sox don't have a whole lot waiting in the wings.

************************

Speaking of the minors, ESPN.com's new-ish investigative department actually came through with some more dirt on the Carribbean scout scam, in which former Sox official Dave Wilder played a major part.  Among the key excerpts:

A three-month "Outside the Lines" investigation reveals that the scandal began to unfold in February as pitchers and catchers were starting a new season. A White Sox prospect in the Dominican informed the club that a team employee had asked for part of his signing bonus, and the complaint was passed up to MLB offices in New York.

Two weeks later, David Wilder, the senior director of player personnel for the White Sox, was making his way through customs at Miami International Airport when he was stopped. He was carrying about $40,000 in undeclared cash back from the Dominican. And a tale began to unravel that has shaken baseball from its Park Avenue offices in Manhattan to the muddy back roads of this small Caribbean nation. [...]

According to MLB sources and a former White Sox scout, Wilder's role in financial improprieties involving the signing of Dominican players wasn't just a recent development. "It was certainly happening for a while," says the MLB official with knowledge of the skimming probe. "With Wilder, it appears this has been going on for several years, and he has made hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not more."

Former White Sox scout Victor Mateo, who was fired for his part in the scheme, tells "Outside the Lines" that Wilder directed him to overstate the talent of certain players, thus boosting their value and potential signing bonuses. That extra money, then, could go back to Wilder and Mateo.

Some of it is restating what we already know, but it's by far the most comprehensive look at this still-developing situation yet.

How to make Carlos Gomez a superstar

With a 4-for-5, two-triple, three-run night, Carlos Gomez improved his season line against the Chicago White Sox to .384/.408/.616, leading Hawk Harrelson to deem him a future superstar in the closing of his broadcast.

Watching the soul-shattering 7-6 loss Thursday, you can see how he's done it:  By taking advantage of awful, awful pitches.

And Bobby Jenks might have thrown the pitch that ended the season.

Allow me to introduce the following into evidence:



To the left is Mark Buehrle's strikeout of Gomez in the third inning of Wednesday's game.  To the right is Jenks' pitch sequence against Gomez that led to Gomez's RBI single to narrow the lead to 6-5, and led to his game-tying run on Denard Span's follow-up triple.

Like Jenks, Buehrle had a runner in scoring position when Gomez was at the plate.  Here's how he did it:
  1. First-pitch slider that Gomez fouled away harmlessly.
  2. Cutter very much in on the hands, jam-shot foul.
  3. Curve that crowded Gomez in, jam-shot foul, setting up...
  4. ...the fastball off the plate, which Gomez didn't offer at.
  5. But he did swing at the fastball up for strike three.
It was easy.  Buehrle introduced different speeds to keep Gomez off-balance.  The off-balance Gomez expanded the zone.  Buehrle expanded it further, and down he went.  He did not put up much of a fight.

Jenks, meanwhile, did the exact opposite of Buehrle.  It was questionable enough that he threw three straight fastballs, but that can be explained away.  While a decent curveball probably puts him away, a fastball above the letters probably gets the job done, with a foul-tip to the screen the most dangerous possibility.  Then the curve is still available thereafter.

But nope.  With A.J. Pierzynski popping out of his crouch to set a high target, Jenks actually made him move his mitt down.  The ball was belt-high and over the heart of the plate, and Gomez knocked it into right field.  The game slid away slowly after that.

Here's another way to illustrate how horrid the location was: Buehrle got Gomez swinging with a fastball that clocked in at a whopping 86 m.p.h.  Jenks threw his at 96.  There is virtually no excuse for allowing Gomez to touch it.

Not that Jenks wasn't the only culprit.  Look at the pitch selection and locations to Gomez by Gavin Floyd the first, second and third times they squared off, resulting in a double and two triples.  Those aren't much better.

That has pretty much been the story all season, which is why Gomez has two very different stories when playing against the Sox and the rest of the league:
  • vs. Sox: .384/.404/.616
  • vs. rest: .244/.288/.329
And if you want Gomez's numbers when he's behind in the count:
  • vs. Sox:  .313/.313/.563
  • Overall:  .197/.201/.283
Those witnessing Gomez's performances against the Sox may look at the Minnesota center fielder and see a future All-Star, when the reality is that these games might be the only things keeping him in the league.

If you can stomach them, the Cheat has some more ugly stats for you.

*************************

Ken Griffey Jr. makes me feel like this site is on the verge of turning into The Daily Show.  No matter how often you check in, you're going to see Jon Stewart playing the role of world-weary observer hamming it up with reactions to absurd right-wing antics in current events.  The subject material differs slightly from day to day, but the theme is the same.

And probably if you come here every once in a while, you'll see me scratching my head and trying to figure out what the hell the Sox are trying to accomplish with General Soreness, and you'll check to see if it's a re-post.

At least we only have a few more days of this.  I understand he's a future Hall of Famer, but he's only hit three of his 611 homers with the Sox.  Meanwhile, over the series in the Metrdome, he gave up four runs with his play in center, including one Thursday when he thought he was Tris Speaker and decided to play Joe Mauer shallow, only to watch a double go over his head.

Later in the game, Ron Gardenhire brought in two lefties to face the General.  Griffey entered the game hitting .200 against southpaws, and they made him look silly.  Against Dennys Reyes, he swung at two sweeping breaking balls out of the zone while watching the fastball for a strike.  Craig Breslow, meanwhile, tried to do him a favor by walking him, but Griffey swung at ball four.

(That was the second time Griffey made a mistake swinging on a three-ball count, mind you.  He got the green light on a 3-0 pitch and popped out harmlessly to left.)

Ozzie Guillen replaced Griffey with Brian Anderson in the bottom of the inning, which was not just a half-inning too late -- it was 3 1/2 innings too late. 

Since the All-Star break, Anderson is 8-for-24 with four extra-base hits against lefties, and is also a fine 4-for-12 as a pinch-hitter on the season.  It would've been an inspired choice to replace Griffey in the fifth inning, when Gardenhire called for Reyes with runners on second and third and two outs.  Righties hit Reyes much harder -- nearly 300 points of OPS harder. 

If Griffey weren't Ken Griffey, but somebody whose name indicates his true talent level against lefties (like Joe Borchard), Guillen might've been more inclined to make a move.  But he stuck with Griffey, who flailed away for an easy strikeout, and the Sox never threatened again.

Maybe I'm exaggerating slightly, because Anderson isn't exactly the bee's knees.  But they also had Nick Swisher on the bench, and he would've been a better option as well.  He should've drawn a key walk later in the game, but Alfonso Marquez was apparently on the Twins' payroll.

I really can't wait until this era is over.

*************************

A couple questions I had while reading the Sun-Times:

No. 1:  Juan Uribe now has an issue with his boat, and I'm not sure how I should react.  My first reaction is to laugh, mainly because I hope this is a continuing series of "Juan Uribe's Misadventures With Various Forms of Transportation."

He was accused of shooting somebody for standing too close to his Jeep.  Now he's accused of keeping a boat on a car wash property for too long.  By part five, the FAA could claim Uribe is flying his garishly-colored dirigible over restricted airspace.  The possibilities are damn near endless.

My second reaction ... well, I don't really have a second reaction.

No. 2:  I'm not much of a card guy, so help me out.  In Joe Cowley's latest airing of grievances against Orlando Cabrera, he writes the following:

MINNEAPOLIS -- Give Orlando Cabrera credit: Between hands of Texas Hold 'Em, playing dominoes and mastering the art of the five-minute change, shower and dash after games, the White Sox shortstop has found time to set the stage for his exit from the South Side.

That makes it sound like playing poker is bad.  But then I remembered this:

ARLINGTON, Texas—In hindsight, it wasn’t real difficult to see that pitcher Gavin Floyd was headed for a long night on Friday.

After all, just minutes after he sat down to start working on a crossword puzzle before his start, he yelled, ’’Hey, ‘Coop,’ what did you have for 1 across?’‘

Lefty John Danks clearly has a different makeup.

Hours before his start Saturday, Danks was juggling the 40 tickets he had to come up with for friends and family, while making sure a Texas Hold ‘em showdown with Jermaine Dye and Juan Uribe didn’t escalate from just friendly shouting.

Never easy to do when Uribe is involved.

Danks was calm, cool and in control. Not one sign of confusion.

I understand the part about enjoying crossword puzzles as an indication of weakness, and as a crossword fan myself, I suppose I can accept my shortcomings.  But I need some help on assessing the ramifications of playing poker, because even after a few months of figuring out who plays it in the clubhouse, I still haven't a clue as to why I should care.

Sox-Twins Thunderdome, Game 3: Floyd vs. Slowey

Game 3: Gavin Floyd (16-8, 3.84 ERA) vs. Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85 ERA

Forecast: Wind variable, allegedly.

Floyd vs. MIN
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
April 29: 1-3
L
6
5
3
3
1
3
1
1.50
4.50
May 6: 7-1
W
8.1
1
1
0
0
3
4
0.48
1.08
June 8: 12-2
W
7
6
2
2
1
1
9
1.00
2.57
July 30: 8-3
W
7.2
5
1
1
0
1
4
0.78
1.17
Total
1-0
29
17
7
6
2
8
18
0.86
1.86

Floyd handles:
  • Brendan Harris: 1-for-13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
  • Carlos Gomez: 2-for-12, 1 BB, 2 K
Floyd struggles with:
  • Jason Kubel: 5-for-16, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K.
  • Justin Morneau: 4-for-17, 1 2B, 2 HR, .647 SLG
Key stat: Twins hitters are batting .221 off Floyd.

Slowey vs. CHW
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
May 8: 2-6
L
5
4
3
3
1
0
2
0.80
5.40
June 8: 2-12
L
3
10
8
8
1
1
4
3.67
24.00
July 28: 7-0
W
9
6
0
0
0
1
5
0.78
0.00
Total
1-0
17
20
11
11
2
2
11
1.29
5.82

Nobody in particular struggles with Slowey, although Paul Konerko is 2-for-12. Both his hits are doubles.

Analysis:  Based on his performances against Minnesota this season, the Sox want Floyd on the mound tonight in the most important game of the season (it's likely every game is the most important one from here on out).  It's an odd feeling, considering he's been criticized for not being confident enough and for doing crossword puzzles while putting up a near-All-Star performance, but there you go.

After a so-so debut, he lost a no-hitter in the ninth inning when Nick Swisher dove in vain for a Joe Mauer double, then held them down for a pair of convincing victories.  Unlike some of the other Sox starters, it can be said that Floyd's starts against Minnesota have only featured drama of the fun kind.

Then again, I said the series rests on Buehrle's shoulders Wednesday, and I was wrong.  He pitched his tail off and bounced back extremely well after early struggles, and that still wasn't good enough because the Sox couldn't make Nick Blackburn pay for some shaky control and fat pitches.

Slowey figures to be a much tougher match-up, which is bad news for an offense that doesn't make anything easy on itself.  While he's allowed a fair amount of homers (21 in 156 2/3 innings), he's negated the full impact because he's nearly matched that total in walks with 21.  With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6:1, he's a great candidate to shut down the Sox, which is exactly what he did his last time out. 

Like Blackburn and Scott Baker before him, Slowey is coming off one of his worst outings of the season.  The Devil Rays thrashed him for five runs over 4 1/3 innings without hitting a single ball out of the park.  Instead, Slowey was uncharactisically wild, walking three to go with nine hits.  It's possible some of that could be fatigue-related, as Slowey has reached a career-high in innings.

But once again, Blackburn and Baker had similar issues yet held the Sox down well enough to get a win apiece.  Sox couldn't muster any sizable attack.  If they make any changes, inserting Nick Swisher for either Jermaine Dye or Paul Konerko would be the first place to look.  Slowey holds righties to a .623 OPS, while lefties are hitting .280/.329/.505.  For all his struggles, Swisher has a .370 OBP from the left side, so putting him in the first or second spot might be worth a shot to shake up this sputtering offense.

I wouldn't hold my breath for any massive improvements at this point.  It's going to be all up to Floyd.  He's 9-2 coming off Sox losses, and will have to pitch a dandy to reach double-digits in wins tonight.

Fighting piranhas with piranhas

It was only a couple months ago that the White Sox were stacked in the outfield, with the MVP favorite in left, a fringe candidate in right, and a former force getting it together in center. Not to mention a Gold Glove-caliber defender and a speedster with some pop backing up.

With four games left in the season, the Sox are down to one decent outfielder.

If you combine two of them.

Then tilt your head and squint.

Making matters worse:

   1. One of them isn’t Jermaine Dye.
   2. One of them is on the verge of “flash in the pan” status.
   3. And one of them is parked in the defensive position for which he’s least able.

Addressing those points one at a time:

No. 1:  After another 0-for-4 night, Dye is hitting .234/.298/.312 in September.  He also extended his homerless streak to 95 plate appearances, the third-longest of his career or longest since 1999, take your pick.

No. 2:  Dewayne Wise is 0-for-7 now, including a strikeout with the bases loaded and a flyout with two on Wednesday.  While Wise has done more than anybody could ever ask of him, everything in his history suggests he could hit a wall hard.  This could very well be it.

No. 3:  All five of the Sox’s runs this series have come during Ken Griffey Jr. plate appearances.  He’s a solid 8-for-28 over his last nine games, with five of those hits going for extra bases (three doubles, two homers).  Nevertheless, like Rob Mackowiak before him, General Soreness is thrust into the position that is most likely to nullify his contributions with the bat, although he made every play possible Wednesday.

Carlos Quentin’s wrist injury wasn’t supposed to mean this much.  Granted, he would’ve been a shoo-in for MVP had he not overreacted to missing a Cliff Lee fastball, but with Dye and Jim Thome holding their own, Nick Swisher coming off an acceptable August and Paul Konerko beginning to come around, the biggest question was supposed to be the bullpen.

That’s not the case, and the Sox’s attack is a shell of what it was just a month and a half ago.  It seems like much longer than that.

Nevertheless, I have a solution for tonight – but the Sox will have to act quickly.  Ladies and gentlemen, two words:

Jason. Tyner.



Let that image soak in.  He’s small.  He’s weak.  He’s bunting.  He’s ready to run.  He’s everything the Sox aren’t.

You can’t look at that picture and tells me it fails to excite you.  And if you did, I’d just punch you in the face, anyway, for wasting my time with your lies.

Tyner is five-foot-nothing, one hundred and nothing pounds of original piranha.  He hit .289 at the Metrodome between 2006 and 2007, including a .386 clip against the Sox in 2006.  He’s well-versed on chopping the ball off concrete and running like hell, which gives him a leg up on every member on the Sox.  And yet he's just wasting away at wherever he went after Charlotte's season ended.

I’ll grant the remote possibility that Kenny Williams signed Tyner to be some sort of minor-league filler, but to me, this signing was all about espionage.  He knows their secrets, and there’s no time like the present to use that against them.

Put Tyner on the roster, and nobody will be sorry.  For one, he can have Dewon Day’s spot.  And he wouldn’t even take up room on the bench, because I’m pretty sure he fits in the bat rack.

Hell, Dye could even try swinging with him.  It’s not like anything else is helping right now.

Sox-Twins Thunderdome, Game 2: Buehrle vs. Blackburn

Mark Buehrle (14-11, 3.87 ERA) vs. Nick Blackburn (10-10, 4.15 ERA)

Forecast:
Overcast with low ceiling

The numbers:

Buehrle vs. MIN
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
May 7: 1-13
L
5.2
9
7
7
1
3
4
2.12
11.18
June 7: 11-2
W
8
7
1
1
1
1
4
1.00
1.13
July 28: 0-7
L
5
8
5
4
2
1
2
1.80
7.20
Total
1-2
18.2
24
13
12
4
5
10
1.55
5.79

Buehrle beats:
  • Alexei Casilla: 2-for-10, 1 BB
  • Joe Mauer: 4-for-18, 1 BB, 3 K
  • Justin Morneau: .229/.256/.429 in 35 ABs.
Buehrle struggles with:
  • Mike Redmond: 14-for-28, 2 2B, 0 BB
  • Carlos Gomez: 5-for-8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR.
  • Michael Cuddyer:  .304/.333/.493, 7 2B, 2 HR in 69 ABs.
Surprising stat:  The active Twins hitters have a combined line of .321/.345/.485 off Buehrle.

Blackburn vs. CHW
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
April 7: 4-7 
ND
5
7
2
2
0
2
5
1.80
3.60
April 30: 4-3 
W
6
6
4
3
1
3
1
1.50
4.50
May 6: 1-7
L
6
9
4
4
0
1
5
1.67
6.00
June 6: 6-10
L
4
8
7
7
1
0
0
2.00
15.75
Total
1-2
21
30
17
16
2
6
11
1.71
6.86

Key stat: Individual hitters have too small a sample size, but Sox hitters are .305/.359/.453 off Blackburn this season.

Analysis:  Entering this series, all the weight was on Buehrle's shoulders.  A win for Javier Vazquez would've been nice, but he drew the toughest opponent and doesn't have much of a history in big games.  The season can swing on this outing.

In theory, Blackburn is the easiest draw because of two trends:
  1. As shown above, the Sox have hit him harder every time out.
  2. So has the rest of the league as of late.
Blackburn owns a 5.24 ERA since Aug. 1, and has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts.  He's coming off his worst outing of the season, in which he allowed nine baserunners over 1 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays Friday.

Ron Gardenhire and Co. are somewhat concerned about Blackburn's workload, but there's no real reason to believe fatigue is the reason for his recent struggles over the fact that he has the thinnest margin of error on the Twins' staff.  He like Lance Broadway with a little extra zip on his fastball, and we've seen how Broadway can get racked when he has misadventures high in the zone.

There are no such concerns with Buehrle as of late, because he has been stout in September.  He's 3-1 in four starts this month, with the loss coming on six innings of two-run ball.  Not only are his 2.13 ERA and .237 BAA impressive this month, but he's also jacked up his strikeout rate, fanning 21 over 25 1/3 innings.

There is one trend going against Buehrle, however -- he hasn't pitched well in the Metrodome.  Looking at the last three seasons, here's his line:
2-1, 4.76 ERA, 17 IP, 29 H, 16 R, 9 ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 2 HR.
The first two numbers are OK in such a small sample size.  But remember Buehrle's Mother's Day of 2006, when he became the first pitcher in over 100 years to give up seven runs in the first inning and still get the win?  Six of those runs were unearned, sparing his ERA.  On the other hand, that doesn't mask his 2.06 WHIP, which is ugly no matter how you slice it.

There's one common bond between each of those three Metrodome starts -- abysmal defense.

In that Mother's Day start, the Sox failed to turn not one, but two double plays that first inning.  A Josh Fields misplay in left field put Buehrle in trouble Sept. 21 the following year, and Buehrle's disastrous start in the dome earlier this year featured a dropped throw by Alexei Ramirez, though gopher balls were the biggest culprit.

Buehrle rebounded from one bad start against the Twins earlier in the Cell by smashing a dugout heater with a bat.  And while Buehrle is 13-7 with a 3.47 ERA since, I'm not sure property damage can be counted upon as a cure the next time around.

That said, it's inexcusable for Ozzie Guillen to put anything besides his best defense behind Buehrle, which chiefly means no General Soreness in center.  It should be Brian Anderson, but I'd take Jerry Owens, Nick Swisher, Dewayne Wise, Jason Bourgeois -- I really don't care as long as it's not Ken Griffey Jr.

If Guillen makes that change, then it's all on Buehrle to get the job done in the biggest game of the Sox's season to date.  That's precisely why they're paying him $56 million over the next four years, and precisely why they drastically limited his spring workload.  Put the good gloves behind him, and he has no excuses.

Four goats feeding on plastic grass

Before we perform an autopsy on one of the season's ugliest losses, I'd like to point out one Ozzie Guillen quote that blew my mind:

"That was Minnesota baseball. You get a couple of people on base, then a home run."

Wait a second.  I could've sworn Minnesota baseball was everything besides relying on the home run.  In fact, waiting for the three-run homer is exactly what the White Sox are criticized for.

At this point, "Minnesota baseball" is just about everything and anything that results in winning.  If the opposing team comes with Montezuma's Revenge minutes before the game and every player, coach and staff member are firing out both ends in the clubhouse, forcing a forfeit, then by gum, that's "Minnesota baseball" too.

Of course, if every kind of winning baseball is "Minnesota baseball," that raises the question on why they would ever choose to lose.

I'm really starting to dislike the Twins, and it has nothing to do with their organization, players or fans.  Like the Sox, I can't help but respect all three.  It has everything to do with the fact that although the Sox are Twins are knotted 8-8 in the season series, various people in the Sox organization make it feel like the Twins are up 15-1, with Gavin Floyd's near-no-hitter the only one that counts.

However, efforts like the one the Sox turned in Tuesday night certainly don't help any.  I'm going to crank up the spotlight on four players in particular.

No. 1:  Javier Vazquez.  Vazquez, battling "a light ear infection," pitched like a flu-ridden Esteban Loaiza.  Joe Cowley relays Vazquez describing his issues as "OK stuff, bad location."  That might cover the hanging change Jason Kubel sent into the upper tank in the second inning, but there was something wrong with his overall execution, which includes the thought process.

It's one thing to walk Justin Morneau on four pitches, but the following situations are far more troubling:

Second inning:  Delmon Young loves the fastball.  He loves it so much, he's 57th out of 67 qualifiers in pitches per plate appearance because when he sees one early in the count, he swings at it.  Vazquez gets ahead of Young 0-2, and after a foul ball, throws Young a fastball over the outer half.  Young smacks it through the right side for a single, but fortunately, he wouldn't score.

Fourth inning:  Carlos Gomez is even more willing to get himself out than Young is.  He's 65th out of 67 in pitches per plate appearance, 65th out of 69 in walk rate and has made the most outs of anybody with fewer than 600 plate appearances on the season.

So when Vazquez gets ahead of Gomez 0-2 like he did Tuesday, Gomez should be out.  He's batting only .129 in such situations (league average is .185), and Vazquez is a strikeout pitcher.  He's as good as retired, right?

Nope.  After going 0-2, Vazquez only threw two kinds of pitches -- a curve in the dirt Gomez didn't offer at three times, and a slider on the outside corner Gomez kept fouling off.  The Gameday recap to the right illustrates this beautifully.

After nearly dropping a single down the left-field line on one slider, Gomez straightened it out for an RBI single.  Maybe I'm overstating the ease of throwing something Gomez can't hit, but his 136 strikeouts on the season seem to side with me.  Why Vazquez couldn't pick another location besides two Gomez seemed to figure out escapes me.

In other words:  Throwing three times as many pitches as one of the league's least productive hitters usually sees is the kind of stuff that gives Vazquez his reputation.

No. 2:  Ken Griffey Jr.  When General Soreness took a long second to start his trot after turning on a Matt Guerrier pitch for his 610th career home run, he probably didn't mean anything by it.  He took his sweet time getting started on his routine flyout to left-center one at-bat earlier.  The torque of his swing puts him in a bad position to start running, not to mention the act of swinging probably leaves him winded.

That said, if I were to put into words his apparent admiration of a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning on the losing end of a 9-1 score off a struggling pitcher who's getting some work in, here's what it said:
Here's to going out on top so I can start at the bottom tomorrow. I defy you to like me. 
Griffey's blast, which put him fourth place on the all-time home run list, was the proverbial polish on a turd.  The General had effectively killed the Sox's one chance at taking control of the game by grounding into a 4-6-3 double play with runners on the corners and nobody out.  Sure, it brought home a run, but one Scott Baker gladly took in exchange for two outs and a clear set of bases. 

Two innings later, Soreness turned a lineout into a triple because he simply couldn't get there, and a 2-1 game became a 5-1 game shortly thereafter.  And of course, when Orlando Cabrera came through with the Sox's only hit with runners in scoring position, Griffey didn't, you know, score.  Granted, there weren't many who could've scored on Denard Span on a one-hop single to right, but it was nevertheless fitting.

So of course Griffey would take advantage of Guerrier, who has a 10.00 ERA over his last 23 outings and was sent out there for the purpose of righting himself.  And of course it would come at literally the least significant moment possible.  Griffey, at least based on his body language, wouldn't have it any other way.

No. 3:  Boone Logan.  Not that it really mattered, but Logan gave up two homers on four pitches Tuesday night.  He's now given up 21 runs over his last 10 innings spanning 19 games, on top of six runs over nine innings during his stint in Charlotte.  Never has a couple decent weeks of spring training propelled somebody so far with virtually nothing else to support it.  Seriously, this is Year No. 3.

No. 4:  Jermaine Dye.  Aside from the fact that he's gone 91 plate appearances without a homer (including the entire month of September), there's not much separating Dye from other slumping teammates like A.J. Pierzynski and Nick Swisher.

Yet I'm singling him out because his approach against Baker was emblematic of the team's struggles as a whole.  Dye struck out looking and pulled the ball three times when Twins pitchers worked away, away, away aside from the occasional fastball in.  When Dye is right, he uses that right-center gap as well as anybody on the team, and Baker's sliders were begging to be taken that way.  Despite having a Grade A example of using right field drop in front of him during the fourth inning, he kindly refused.

Expect a Game 2 preview this afternoon. 

White Sox, Twins enter the Thunderdome

It's come down to this.

The Twins versus the White Sox.  The Piranhas versus the... Cats(?).  "Smell 'em" versus "Paws up."  Hubert H. Humphrey versus Adlai Stevenson.

This time around, the last of that list may be the most fitting, because neither team seems all that eager to take the AL Central. 

The White Sox, with an uninspiring offense and a bullpen in shambles, have staggered to a 9-10 record in the final month of the season -- and have still been able to pad their lead by two full games thanks to the Twins' 7-12 September mark.

Nobody can complain about the Sox facing Minnesota at the wrong time, as the trademarks of a Ron Gardenhire-managed team have vanished.  The pitching staff not only sports a higher ERA in September than any other month (4.89), but also the highest home run and walk rates -- by far.  Add in an excess of late-inning mental mistakes, and a team that supposedly never beats itself is doing just that.

On the other hand, the Sox find themselves in the wrong place.  When the air conditioning is on, the Sox go cold -- they're 2-12 in domes this season, including a 1-5 mark in the Metrodome.

You could say the Sox are due for a series victory indoors.  That would give them a 3 1/2-game lead over the Twins, which means one win over the Indians (or a Twins loss) in the season's final series would hand them the division.  More optimistically, a sweep would allow them to celebrate on turf, which is exactly what Ozzie Guillen is aiming for

We've got to beat the (heck) out of them and have the last laugh. [...]

I've seen Minnesota clinch in our ballpark once. I hope we can clinch in theirs. I like the way they play, but we've got to make sure we're mean and show them we're going to kick their ass as soon as we walk in. And make sure you grab a big net and get those piranhas and put some poison in the water to make their teeth fall out.

The last time Guillen mentioned "poison" with the Twins, it was used for lauding Johan Santana.  The change in tone is appreciated.

A couple of Twins blogs have explored all the possible outcomes of this series -- Twinkie Town is apprehensive, while Aaron Gleeman is more on the optimistic side.

Despite the errors and the losses, Twins fans are justified to look for light through the plastic ceiling -- and they're the same reasons that have been around all season:

No. 1:  The home record.  The Twins are 49-26 at the Metrodome, including a 3-3 mark this month.  They're 4-9 away in September, so they're aching to make up for the road struggles.

No. 2:  Their clutch hitting hasn't let up. They're hitting .296/.368/.413 with runners in scoring position this month.  On one hand, that's dropped their season line to .311/.385/.454.  On the other hand, not only do they still lead the league in that category by a large margin, but that .296 average would also be good enough to top the AL.

No. 3:  Mauer and Morneau.  Why Joe Mauer doesn't get more MVP talk is beyond me -- he's hitting .391 this month with a .444 on-base percentage.  Morneau has had a down month (.805 OPS), but is still slugging a solid .481 and has a history of crushing White Sox pitching

Add in the Twins' team speed on turf and the Sox's inability to manage opposing running games, and the Sox will have their hands full.  So let's tighten our belts, raise our paws and look at the first pitching matchup:

Game 1: Javier Vazquez (12-14, 4.32 ERA) vs. Scott Baker (9-4, 3.65 ERA).

Forecast:
Room temperature.

The numbers:

Vazquez vs. MIN
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
April 7: 7-4
W
7
7
3
3
0
1
8
1.14
3.86
June 6: 10-6
ND
5.1
9
4
4
1
2
4
1.88
6.75
Total
1-0
12.1
16
7
7
1
3
12
1.54
5.11

Vazquez dominates:
  • Jason Kubel: 2-for-21, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
  • Nick Punto: 5-for-21, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Vazquez struggles with:
  • Justin Morneau: .355/.444/.923, 4 2B, 6 HR, 6 BB, 3 K in 39 AB
  • Michael Cuddyer: .343/.410/.543, 2 HR in 35 ABs.
Surprising stat:  Delmon Young, career owner of a 1:4 ratio of walks to strikeouts, has only struck out twice in 15 at-bats against Vazquez.

Baker vs. CHW
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
WHIP
ERA
April 9: 12-5 
W
5
5
3
3
3
1
7
1.20
5.40
July 31: 10-6 
ND
6
5
4
4
1