The coronation of Richard the Sixth
At the beginning of the season, if you had to make a list of the most likely minor-league arms to first make a start for the White Sox this year, what would it look like?
I feel pretty confident about my top four:
- Lance Broadway
- Jack Egbert
- Charlie Haeger
- Tomo Ohka
It gets pretty indistinguishable after that, but no matter how you try to slice up the rest of the pool to form some sort of middle tier, Clayton Richard doesn't stand out. Nevertheless, the big lefty from Michigan by way of Purdue Country is the first to break the sixth starter barrier, which is a pretty big accomplishment when considering how White Sox starters consume innings and outings.
(I don't count Nick Masset, because his spot start was just that -- absolutely no designs on keeping him in the rotation past that one game.)
Mark Buehrle provided a fine template for
how a lefty can dismantle the tough Texas Rangers lineup Tuesday night. Establishing the inside corner is a must, and Richard apparently has the velocity and sink to do it if he can maintain his aggressiveness through the nerves.
What I can't figure out is how much Richard's start will mean in the scheme of things. At least to most ends. There's a chance he could go
Arnie Munoz on the Sox, after which he's sent down to Charlotte and never to be heard from again, except when
Ozzie Guillen questions his manhood in the spring.
To the other extreme, there's a chance he could go the Brandon McCarthy route.
A strong start against the Rangers served as a springboard for McCarthy's career, as he provided surprisingly effective work through September in the heat of the pennant race when Orlando Hernandez went down.
But I'd say there's about an 80-85 percent chance that Richard's performance won't cause a change of plans either way. In this case, Richard would throw his two starts, then return to Charlotte until September.
If I had to go with a gut feeling, I'd say, "Don't bother having a gut feeling," because it's not like anybody on the outside ever has a consistent track record of predicting Kenny Williams' course of action. But if somebody put a gun to my gut's head, I would guess that he's going to stick with Jose Contreras.
That might seem counterintuitive. Although I'd never go to Steve Rosenbloom for analysis,
he probably sums up the armchair perspective pretty well:
But the real point is that this doesn't sound like
the Kenny Williams that I know. This sounds like a Kenny Williams who's
settling. The Kenny Williams that I know doesn't settle. The Kenny
Williams that I know empties the magazine.
But this Kenny Williams is settling and here's why:
He's gun shy. Or he's smarter. Or he's less impulsive. Or all three.
Get a load of this from Williams: "I learned some hard lessons in the
past, and those lessons are just throwing additional talent, as much
talent, against the wall as you could possibly throw, doesn't always
work because it doesn't always fit."
And of course, he finds a way to bring Aaron Rowand into it.
But here's what I got:
For one,
Contreras was reportedly feeling good after 50 pitches Tuesday. While being "listed at 36" is a health concern in and of its own, it's one the Sox have dealt with for a while. If his velocity is back, then he's pretty much back, and he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy.
Then there's the fact that Williams hasn't made The Big Deal the last few trade deadlines. When the Sox were struggling for production from the left side of the infield in 2005, Williams bypassed the Eric Chavez talk for Geoff Blum. He was slightly more active the following year, taking David Riske off Theo Epstein's hands, exhuming the corpse of Sandy Alomar and taking a chance on Mike MacDougal. Last year, he sold Tadahito and Rob Mackowiak for parts.
Granted, he did land bigger names at previous deadlines, but when he swung deals for Contreras and Carl Everett during the middle of the season, he did so knowing they would be in the plans for at least the following year. The one consistent trait about Williams at any time is that he digs cost certainty.
Most of the big names are rent-a-players. A.J. Burnett could exercise an opt-out clause in his contract after this season (nobody ever seems to bypass them), Greg Maddux is on one-year deals, and Freddy Garcia doesn't want two years, either. Justin Duchscherer is the one guy who doesn't fit this mold, but then again, Williams isn't one to buy high.
And who would they trade for a sure major-league rotation impact? The biggest chip they have is Josh Fields, and although
Joe Cowley suggests the Sox have an open mind when it comes to Fields, the fact is the Sox have a rare opportunity to plug in a major-league caliber player at the league minimum. Trade Fields, and the Sox have to figure out another cheap option at the hot corner if they're taking on additional salary in the rotation. That's not going to be easy in a weak free agent field at that position coming up.
There just seem to be too many obstacles for Williams to land surefire rotation help. Understand that it doesn't mean it won't happen. Hell, that I can't figure out a way it could happen almost makes it more likely since
he's the ninja executive, but again, I'm trying to force a guess out of myself.
I'd say bullpen help is more likely. If the
Emilio Bonafacio-for-Jon Rauch deal sets the course for other deadline trades, the Sox have the goods for a similar type of arm. Chris Getz is probably expendable.
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Any guesses for Richard's line? My prediction: 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
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Minor league roundup:- Indianapolis 5, Charlotte 2
- Danny Richar doubled and owned the Knights' lone two RBI.
- Struggling Dave Cook went 3-for-4, raising his July average to .211.
- Brad Eldred returned to the lineup and went 1-for-3; Josh Fields did the same and walked.
- Jack Egbert took the loss, allowing five runs on seven hits over six innings. Three came in the first.
- Mike MacDougal pitched two scoreless innings, striking out three and allowing just a hit and a walk.
- Salem 6, Winston-Salem 4
- Joe Persichina, C.J. Retherford, John Shelby and Greg Paiml each had two hits.
- Matt Davis was the only pitcher of note, throwing two hitless, scoreless innings.
- Kingsport 3, Bristol 0 (6 innings)
- Jorge Castillo had two of the Sox's four hits.
- Garrett Johnson struck out six over 5 2/3 innings, but allowed two homers.
- Ogden 10, Great Falls 3
- Jordan Cheatham went 2-for-4 with two RBI.
- Kyle Shelton and Doug Thennis also had two-hit games; Mike Grace had three.
- Oddly enough, Wilmer Rojas had the only solid night on the mound, throwing two scoreless innings. He lowered his ERA from 17.69 to 14.66.
- Birmingham PPD
- Kannapolis PPD