Top 10 post-spring training concerns
Before I begin,
Joe Crede and
Nick Masset have been previewed for the 2008 season. That leaves Carlos Quentin, Juan Uribe and Octavio Dotel before tomorrow.
(Dotel would rate No. 11 on this list, but the defense behind him has been so atrocious that it's hard to get a handle on his actual performance.)
10. Jose Contreras.Call me crazy, but I'm getting some good vibes from The Count. Watching his final tuneup during the Civil Rights Game Saturday, his two-seam fastball appears to have more life, and his curveball is actually a curveball. The one he threw today had a velocity in the low-70s, and he kept it low in the zone. As long as he throws that one instead of
the crazy-assed floater, he'll be in a lot better shape.
I don't think he'll come close to his 2005-06 peak, but he easily could keep his ERA under 5.00. Considering his age, 2007 performance, inability to hold runners and his catchers' inability to throw them out, that would be a sizable achievement.
And because I forgot about it until now, here's video of Contreras warming up from a month ago, complete with Spanish-speaking Don Cooper:
9. Nick Masset.We've discussed this at length the last couple of days. In terms of impact, the last man in the bullpen shouldn't figure to have that much of one. The issue isn't tied to performance as much as it is tied to evaluation. If Masset shows no signs of improvement and he's still on the roster in late May, it'll be a glaring sign that the Sox just don't want to trust results.
I encourage you
to drop an entry in the Nick Masset Release Pool. As of now, only April 25, May 14 and May 27 are taken.
8. Gavin Floyd.He's the flimsiest fifth starter the Sox have had in four years, and a relapse to Fifth Starter Hell isn't out of the question. He had a tough spring (6.55 ERA, four homers in 22 innings), but the fact that he walked only five batters is encouraging. He'll always give up homers, but those homers won't hurt as much if he quits nibbling.
7. John Danks.While expectations should be heavily tempered for Floyd, Danks will be held to a higher standard, as he'll be counted upon to pick up the bulk of Jon Garland's slack. That's easier said than done.
Overall he had a decent spring, but he experienced some control issues toward the end of spring, as well as some problems holding runners. Neither of these things warrant red flags by themselves, but they're worth monitoring for a guy who was anything but efficient in the second half of 2006.
6. Orlando Cabrera.The Sox most look forward to what Cabrera can contribute to things that aren't easily quantifiable -- leadership, consistency and on-field smarts.
But Cabrera is expected to give a boost to the team's on-base percentage from the shortstop position. Juan Uribe is not a hard act to follow, but Cabrera is far from a sure thing. Between 2004 and 2005, his OBP was only .308, and while he's improved that the past two seasons (.335 and .345), he is 33 years old.
It's never smart to make too much out of spring training stats, but his line -- .203/.225/.246 -- is worth monitoring if only because he'll be hitting No. 2 for the entire year, barring an offensive collapse. The good news is that
it's not his worst spring training ever.
5. Toby Hall.He hasn't shown he can hit or throw one full year after injuring his shoulder. Paul Phillips is a decent if wholly uninspiring third catcher along the lines of 2005 Chris Widger, but the Sox would have to cut Hall, and Jerry Reinsdorf really doesn't like paying players on other teams' rosters.
4. Jerry Owens.Ozzie Guillen had penciled Owens into the leadoff spot against both righties and lefties before an MRI showed a tear in his adductor muscle. Now we'll find out how much the Sox learned from Scott Podsednik's DL issues the past two seasons.
The Sox can afford to be extremely patient with Owens considering he's their fourth- or fifth-best outfielder, but any mishandling of this situation can mean a big loss in production from the offense. If Owens is at all tentative running, then whatever worth he has is greatly reduced. And if that's happening while he's both hitting leadoff and taking at-bats away from Carlos Quentin, then it hits the Sox twice as hard.
3. Alexei Ramirez.The Mets' Joe Smith exposed Ramirez more than any other pitcher to date, striking him out on three consecutive slow curveballs with the bases loaded and two outs. Ramirez swung hard three times, and swung early and over Smith's pitches three times.
Ramirez will be starting in center field, with Nick Swisher moving to left and Quentin and Brian Anderson on the bench. It could be short-lived if he doesn't make some quick adjustments.
2. Jermaine Dye.Dye struck out three times in an 0-for-4 day against the Mets, giving him 21 Ks in 70 at-bats. Like Cabrera, Dye might have had a bad spring (.186/.230/.371), but
it's not his worst ever from an OPS standpoint. However, he's never struck out this often in the spring, for what it's worth.
He can't afford another slow start, because unlike in 2005 when he suffered through a terrible April, he doesn't even offer average defensive value anymore. The Sox will be stuck with him no matter what, because he's earning far more than the Sox's other four outfielders combined, and he has a no-trade clause.
1. Joe Crede.Tadahito Iguchi and Rob Mackowiak, two productive players with no health concerns, each brought back only an A-ball reliever in trades before the deadline. Crede, who hasn't proved he's right after back surgery and has an agent who will force him to test free agency, might not even be worth an A-ball reliever to the rest of the league at this rate.
If Crede gets back on track and posts a .775 OPS or so with his usual glovework, then Josh Fields' disappointing demotion won't be the worst thing in the world. But if he carries his spring scuffling (.172/.226/.276) into May, it's going to be
awkwaaaaaaaard, especially if Fields tears the cover off the ball in Charlotte all the while.
The issue would have plenty of facets, as 1) it would force Ozzie into the uncomfortable situation of benching a veteran, 2) amplify the buzz about Kenny Williams' desire to free up the spot for Fields, and 3) bring the acrimonious contract talks to the forefront. In other words, it could create a helluva distraction, one possibly so big that even Ozzie couldn't create a diversion.