posted on Tuesday, March 18, 2008 1:38 AM
by
Jim
Changing speeds, and not in the good way
Not that I didn't enjoy
Jeff Passan's piece on Bobby Jenks in Yahoo!'s sports section today, but this section made me wonder:
Jenks celebrated, knowing now that he could get by on a 95-mph
fastball that he could locate instead of a 103-mph dart that hit more
2s than treble 20s.
Though, he likes to note, “It’s always there in case I need it.”
If that were true, you'd think that he'd show it a little more once in a while. As it is, Jenks sports the biggest velocity drop of any Sox pitcher over the last three seasons according to FanGraphs, which just released
its velocity leaderboard. Here's what the Sox staff looks like over the past three years:
| Pitcher |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Change |
| Logan |
n/a |
89.8 |
92.8 |
+3.00 |
| Dotel |
92.1 |
92.7 |
93.5 |
+1.40 |
| Thornton |
93.3 |
96.0 |
94.3 |
+1.00 |
| Floyd |
91.1 |
90.8 |
91.4 |
+0.30 |
| Vazquez |
91.7 |
91.2 |
91.8 |
+0.10 |
| Sisco |
92.7 |
92.4 |
92.4 |
-0.30 |
| Linebrink |
93.0 |
92.4 |
92.3 |
-0.70 |
| Buehrle |
86.8 |
85.7 |
85.9 |
-0.90 |
| Garland |
91.1 |
89.8 |
89.3 |
-1.80 |
| MacDougal |
95.2 |
95.2 |
93.2 |
-2.00 |
| Contreras |
92.9 |
91.9 |
90.0 |
-2.80 |
| Jenks |
97 |
95.8 |
93.9 |
-3.10 |
A few things that jump out at me, Jenks' numbers aside:
No. 1: Jose Contreras would probably be better served by cutting his drop-down attempts to once or twice a game. Also worth noting -- his curve has decreased in velocity by 3 m.p.h. over the last three years, no doubt due to the development of the crazy-assed floater.
No. 2: I wondered before about Thornton's drop in velocity, and now we have some numbers to go with it. It surprised me that even with the fairly big loss in velocity (1.7 m.p.h.) between 2006 and 2007, he still threw harder than he did with the Mariners. Of course, he was bad in 2005 and good in 2006, so simple deduction leads me to believe that he's more effective at the 96 range instead of the 94. His elbow soreness at the start of the spring doesn't encourage me.
No. 3: Booner!
No. 4: Octavio Dotel's velocity numbers look like those of a guy who's recovering from Tommy John surgery.
I also threw Jon Garland up there, because he's somebody to watch closely over this next season. I wonder how much of that decrease in velocity is due to the shoulder knot that he had trouble shaking for weeks at a time wonder how much of his decrease is due to the shoulder knot that he battled on and off in '06 and '07, and his velocity varied that wildly.
On one hand, this trend could mean the Sox dealt Garland at the right time. Of course, if they do
sign Orlando Cabrera to a long-term contract, it's going to pretty much negate any benefit the Sox gained from doing so.