posted on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 2:49 AM by Jim

If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Hat tip to South Side Sox and SoxTalk for alerting me to the news from Impacto Deportivo, which says the White Sox and Bartolo Colon have reached a preliminary agreement.  Or, to put it in the words of Google Translator:

Later than ever, now will be the fruits.

I'll reserve full judgment until this report is verified and the terms are disclosed, but my first impression is that this better be a minor-league deal.  Given Colon's health issues and the fact that he's not even close to 100 percent, I don't see how there are more reasons to be optimistic about Colon's future than that of Gavin Floyd, who is out of options.  Nor does John Danks' baptism by fire in the rotation for an entire year seem to be a wise move.

I also can't see him as a viable long reliever, considering his health and that he didn't seem to hit his stride until 50 pitches in or so during his tour with the Sox in 2003.  So unless one of the starters didn't show up to spring training in the "best shape of their lives" -- and seriously, what are the odds of that ever happening? -- the only way signing Colon makes sense is if he starts the season in Charlotte.

But, like I said, there's no point in saying any more until official -- or official-er -- word comes out.  Although I do loves me some fruits.

********************

Following up on Danks' preview, here are some assorted stats to give Danks' flaws some context:

First PA
Second PA
Pitcher PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pitcher PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Buehrle 270 .192 .246 .332 .576 Vazquez 289 .223 .279 .367 .646
Vazquez 295 .266 .308 .456 .764 Garland 283 .276 .320 .410 .730
Garland 293 .275 .328 .454 .782 Contreras 272 .293 .348 .426 .774
Contreras 295 .288 .366 .440 .806 Buehrle 261 .303 .341 .480 .821
Danks 236 .238 .322 .485 .807 Danks 230 .287 .341 .493 .834
Floyd 130 .267 .323 .517 .840 Floyd 104 .301 .359 .559 .918
Third+ PA
Ahead/Behind
Pitcher PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pitcher
0-1
 Pitcher
1-0
Garland 307 .259 .307 .379 .688 Vazquez
.539
 JG
.801
Vazquez 298 .236 .281 .409 .690 Buehrle
.618
 MB
.805
Buehrle 304 .308 .344 .437 .781 Garland
.675
 JV
.854
Contreras 291 .330 .375 .485 .860 Contreras
.710
 GF
.871
Floyd 80 .352 .397 .465 .862 Danks
.761
 JD
.950
Danks 156 .370 .420 .587 1.007 Floyd
.776
 JC
.961

I can't say how much to make of these numbers, but it's kind of fun to look at.  To me, at least.  Some thoughts sorted by pitcher:

Javier Vazquez:  In short, he's the man.  He pretty much enjoyed the opposite experience in 2007 compared to the year before, as he grew stronger as the game went on.  I'm a little surprised by the OPS allowed when he throws a first pitch ball.

Mark Buehrle:  I was a little surprised at how much he shut down hitters through the first turn, and that he owned the highest batting average allowed the second time around.  Thank goodness he doesn't walk many.  I would also think he'd get hit a little harder when he's behind in the count, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Jose Contreras:  Just had a bad season no matter how you slice it.  I think anybody who has watched him knows that he's a much different pitcher when he can put that forkball in the dirt ahead 0-2 or 1-2.

Gavin Floyd:  The reason why his 1-0 count doesn't look all that bad is because his first pitches were hammered.  Four of his 17 homers allowed came that way, and his first-pitch OPS was 1.257.  Vazquez was next-worst at 1.008.  Otherwise, his early shellings basically ruin any chance of looking good in any of these categories.

Jon Garland:  I think people are going to miss him more than they realize.

I'm going to wait a little while before doing Floyd's preview, since a potential Colon signing could gum it all up, but I'd be curious to see how much those numbers changed after returning to the rotation in September and pitching well enough to stay there.  Right now, he's the only guy making Danks look promising by comparison.

Comments

# re: If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 4:02 AM by morsetoad
Javy is a badass and a legit number 1. I expect him to be right there again thanks to Coop. As for Danks, what's so bad about having him in AAA? It was pretty clear he wasn't ready last year and some combo of Broadway and Floyd should have absorbed more of his starts (Platooning him with Broadway for away and home starts respectively might have been a good choice). I don't have a problem with the signing, it's just unlikely that they get any added wins out of it. Maybe a few additional tickets though, so if that's how the Sox want to play it, good for them.

# re: If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 2:04 PM by Orestes
Maybe Flabolo Colonic is off the HGH and back to a "decent" size now....

As long as we don't risk any real $ on him, take a shot - he used to be a contender.

Is KW getting a little desperate though....

# re: If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 3:55 PM by Jim Margalus
Colin, there's nothing particularly wrong with sending Danks to AAA on the surface, although it would suck when realizing we gave up a big-league pitcher for a guy who can't hack it yet (and is only one year behind on the arb clock).

Also, Gavin Floyd also had major issues in Scranton after getting roughed up in his big-league stint, so there's no easy way to predict how he could handle it. The Sox made some pitching coach changes in the minors, so that may play into it, too.

I wouldn't call Colon desperate -- if it's a minor-league deal, it's an outstanding move. But I'm going to wait until somebody besides Impacto Deportivo reports it before concluding anything. No offense to Impacto Deportivo.

# re: If fruits don't lie, Colon looms

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 11:25 PM by Orestes
Colon is not desperate....unless that's all Kenny can do to improve this staff - then it's looking kind of desperate.