Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Spring training battleground: Third outfielder

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Jerry Owens:  The Sox traded for Owens in February 2005, sending the DFA'd Alex Escobar to the Washington Nationals in exchange.  Escobar kept getting hurt; Owens began a steady ascent through the minor-league system, impeded slightly by a down year in Charlotte in 2006.  He received a September call-up at the end of that year, then stuck for good two stints later after injuries to Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik ravaged the outfield.

Carlos Quentin:  Came to the Sox via a trade for power-hitting prospect Chris Carter Dec. 3, 2007.  Quentin had rated as one of the Diamondbacks' top prospects for a couple years after being selected first in the 2003 draft.  A non-throwing shoulder injury hampered him tremendously and opened the door for Justin Upton and Chris Young to claim spots instead.

WHAT THEY BRING TO THE OFFENSE

Quentin:  His first six major-league hits went for extra bases.  He owns a minor-league slugging percentage of .527, averaging 41 doubles per 150 games, and his OBP is even better (.413).  He gets hit by a ton of pitches and runs decently.  Even if he were the least powerful starting outfielder, the Sox would stand a good chance of setting a new franchise record for homers by an outfield trio.

Owens:  He's the fastest guy on the team, and finished eighth in the league with 32 stolen bases in 40 attempts despite only racking up 389 plate appearances.  For comparison, the other top 33 basestealers came to the plate at least 500 times apiece.  Has an OK command of the strike zone considering lack of power, and looked to be getting the hang of slapping and running for hits toward the end of the year (.396 OBP in September).

WHAT THEY BRING TO THE DEFENSE

Owens:  Unless we see a surprise spring surge by Brian Anderson, Owens will be the only true center fielder on the roster.   He has above-average range there. 

Quentin:  He rates as the best defensive corner outfielder on the roster, with reportedly a better arm than Jermaine Dye to boot.

HOLES IN THEIR BAT

Quentin:  Has yet to truly replicate his minor-league success, regressing after making a strong debut in 2006.  Most of his struggles are attributed to his shoulder and were compounded by too much mental baggage.  Based on limited major- and minor-league splits, Quentin actually hits righties better.

Owens:  Lack of power suggests that he faces a serious uphill climb to even come close to matching minor league OBP in .380-390 range.  Unless he gets fastballs, he's pretty much rendered ineffective by lefties.

LIMITS IN THE FIELD

Owens:  He has the weakest throwing arm of the group, as it never quite fully rebounded from shoulder surgery a few years ago.  Thus, he can't play right field, and it makes him a less effective center fielder in big outfields.

Quentin:  While he'd be great in left field, it'd be a waste of his talents.  He can't handle center, so his impact on the outfield as a whole will likely be diminished by the way he's utilized.

PREDICTING A WINNER

It's easy to knock Owens, because he doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence when watching him.  One thing that was a revelation to me, however, was their major-league strikeout-to-walk totals. Extrapolating Owens' 398 plate appearances to match Quentin's higher total of 454, and here's what you get:

• Quentin:  33 walks, 88 strikeouts
• Owens: 31 walks, 74 strikeouts

We can find ways to discredit Owens' advantage here -- Quentin has three times as many extra-base hits, owns a 11-3 HBP advantage, and he's been at less than 100 percent, while Owens hasn't had any major health issues.  Still, it's a reminder that Owens has come close to matching Quentin's output despite not nearly stacking up with regards to skills.  That's a credit to his work ethic, even though he's not allowed to work hard or care much, being from California and all.

Assuming Quentin can start Opening Day or close to it (because assuming otherwise would make this whole exercise pointless), he should enjoy a massive advantage in spring training, having spent time serious time at Tucson Electric Park as a member of the Diamondbacks' Triple-A team in each of the last three years.  Owens has never hit particularly well during spring (career line: .214/.329/.271), although he has succeeded in all 10 stolen base attempts.

However, it's going to be difficult to predict how figure how the biases will play out.  My guess is Kenny Williams wants Quentin, for whom he gave up arguably his top hitting prospect.  We know Ozzie Guillen prefers speed and action at the top of the order, so he would naturally lean toward Owens.  History has shown that Ozzie plays favorites, even in the face of inferior numbers.

If C.C. Sabathia starts for Cleveland, I'd peg Quentin for the Opening Day start.  If it's Fausto Carmona, then Owens would get the nod, since he's 3-for-7 with two walks against Carmona. 

After the first series...

Fearless prediction:  Owens will receive more plate appearances than Quentin in the first month of the season unless Owens completely craps the bed in Tucson.  Jim Thome's yearly DL stint in May will get Quentin into a regular rhythm, after which he'll take the bulk of the third outfielder at-bats.