posted on Saturday, February 02, 2008 2:35 AM
by
Jim
Hey, PECOTA is alive
That headline works better
if you say it aloud.
Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus
released his PECOTA projections, and here's a glance at how it sizes up the positional battles set to take place in Tucson:
MIDDLE INFIELD:- Danny Richar: .260/.315/.415
- Juan Uribe: .249/.299/.419
- Pablo Ozuna: .269/.305/.341
- Alexei Ramirez: .295/.342/.452
- Orlando Cabrera: .269/.323/.372
If Ramirez were to hit that projection, I'd probably wet myself. There were
six shortstops with an OPS higher than .794 -- their names are Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Guillen, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki and Edgar Renteria. Not bad company, especially when Ramirez is set to make $4.5 million over the next four years.
Alas, that line is merely a shot in the dark, since there's not nearly a large enough sample size to translate Cuban stats into major-league numbers.
I'd also take that line for Richar in a heartbeat. PECOTA is middle of the road for Richar, as projections systems are giving him anywhere from a .685 OPS (ZiPS) to .788 (Bill James).
LEFT/CENTER FIELD:- Jerry Owens: .264/.321/.338
- Carlos Quentin: .269/.349/.439
That should be a no-brainer, but regardless, I think Owens can outdo that line. Projections systems aren't too kind to him, but he was pretty consistent after his second call-up in 2007. Once again, The Bill James Handbook is the kindest to a Sox youngster (.340 OBP).
BACK OF THE ROTATION:- John Danks: 5.54 ERA, 21 HR in 113 1/3 IP
- Gavin Floyd: 5.23 ERA, best improvement rate of the bunch.
- Charlie Haeger: 6.29 ERA, 1.76 WHIP
- Lance Broadway: 6.15 ERA, 57 BB, 63 K in 102 IP
- Jack Egbert: 4.99 ERA, 6.38 K/9IP
Just like
ZiPS, PECOTA thinks Egbert will be the Sox's third-best starter, not that far behind Mark Buehrle (4.77 ERA) and just ahead of Jose Contreras' 5.00. Also compared to other projection systems, it loves Floyd and is lukewarm on Danks.
For comparison's sake, it projects a 4.88 ERA out of Brandon McCarthy, which is the second-highest of any projection system. All of them peg McCarthy to stay under 5.00; only
Marcel gives Danks an ERA under that bar (4.95).