Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Running for their lives, to their deaths

Scott Merkin turns his SoxFest spotlight onto new third base coach Jeff Cox, who the Sox wrangled in to attempt a "speed without speed" approach on the basepaths.  The team's two new outfielders, Carlos Quentin and Nick Swisher, will be key figures in the transition, Merkin writes:


Looking at the Bill James Handbook, for the hell of it:

• Nick Swisher:
  
• +12 overall score
• Went from first to third in 15 of 32 chances.
• Second to home in 11 of 17 chances.
• 3-for-4 in first-to-home opportunities
• 2006: +5
  
• Carlos Quentin:
• -5 overall score
• No first-to-third advances in eight chances.
• Second to home in 6 of 10 chances.
• 1-for-4 in first-to-home opportunities
• 2006: -3

At least as far as the last two years are concerned, Swisher is an immensely successful baserunner under this system, especially considering he gains no value from stolen bases.  Quentin, on the other hand, checks out as average at best, though he has yet to play a full season.

It'll be interesting to see if the Sox look any different on the basepaths, because it's hard to peg the overall net gain or loss before the position battles are decided.  Here's what we have right now:

SHOULD GET FASTER

Shortstop:  Orlando Cabrera rated +38, phenomenal considering he doesn't steal that many bases.  That represents an enormous upgrade over Juan Uribe, who scored -22, mainly because of his 10 percent stolen base success rate.  They don't have a category for "times hung out to dry on a hit-and-run," unfortunately.

Third base:  Josh Fields (-7) takes over for Joe Crede (-19 in 2006), presumably.  Fields played with a nagging hamstring for most of last year, which made him look like he dipped one foot in concrete at times.  He stole 28 bases in 33 attempts at Charlotte in 2006, so he should move a bit better this coming year if all is right with his leg.

At least one outfield spot:  Jerry Owens (+28) dominated Scott Podsednik (0), if he gets the call.  Nick Swisher also holds an advantage over Darin Erstad in that he has a better history of playing at 100 percent.  Erstad's one of baseball's smarter baserunners, but his body betrayed him once again last year.

WILL GET SLOWER

Designated hitter: Jim Thome is another year older, and presumably another year creakier.

First base:  Paul Konerko will continue to run like Spewey, but one who's another year older.

Catcher:  A.J. Pierzynski will continue to run like Yogi Bear, but one who's another year older with more wear and tear from squatting.

TOSS-UPS

Right field:  Jermaine Dye will probably continue to slow down, but considering his quad was in bad shape for a lot of last season, it's possible that he could be (relatively) faster.  That would require him to stay healthy, though.

Second base:  In a foot race, Danny Richar would beat Tadahito Iguchi easily.  But the Emperor knew how to run the bases, and also picked his spots to steal, going 14 of 16 in that category last year.  Stolen base success rates accounted for the entire difference between Richar's score (+3) and Iguchi's score (+15) in 2007.  If Uribe wins the spot, then throw it in the "will get slower" category.

The third outfield spot:  If Owens is relegated to fourth-outfielder duties, then Quentin would be a downgrade over Podsednik or Erstad, only in terms of running, of course.

What we do know is Cox has his work cut out for him.  The 25-man roster as it currently stands present a boatload of variables not only from player to player, but some individuals have a history of running at different speeds from week to week.

Of course, if the team can't get on base like last year, Cox won't have all that much to worry about.