posted on Friday, January 11, 2008 3:05 AM
by
Jim
Sox could use a shot of Haeger
To the left, you'll see Baseball Prospectus' revised list of
the Top 11 Chicago White Sox prospects, following Kenny Williams' razing of the previous crop the last five months or so.
1. Aaron Poreda
2. John Shelby
3. Jose Martinez
4. Jack Egbert
5. Lance Broadway
6. Brian Omogrosso
7. Kyle McCulloch
8. Christian Marrero
9. John Ely
10. Salvador Sanchez
11. Charlie Haeger
| | |
The first thing I noticed: No position players who have even sniffed Birmingham so far.
The second thing:
Kyle McCulloch can choose between being "the poor man's
Lance Broadway" or "the draft pick who caused heads to roll in the scouting department." Fun!
Thirdly: Is
Salvador Sanchez a more
EXTREME! version of
Anderson Gomes (taller, faster, stronger, older for his level)?
And finally: It certainly is weird to see Charlie Haeger on the list.
Haeger is in the same boat as Brian Anderson at this point -- encouraging performances in the minors, got their asses handed to them in the majors, then returned to the minors only to struggle some more.
Of course, they face similarly long odds for completely different reasons. Anderson's personality clashed with Ozzie Guillen's, relegating him to a doghouse he hasn't tried particularly hard to escape. Haeger, on the other hand, is mostly a victim of circumstance. His greatest attribute as a young knuckleballer (the ability to pitch extended outings regularly) wasn't worth much to the Sox teams of the last two years, as they were stocked with quality veteran starters and a manager who rode them deep into ballgames.
The Sox needed stoppers in the bullpen last year, and that's a purpose Haeger is nowhere near ready to serve. The
game on July 13 against the Orioles is a prime example. He entered in the 10th inning of a tie game and gave up a single to Corey Patterson. Patterson stole second (not hard on a combination of Haeger and A.J. Pierzynski) and scored four batters later to end it.
It didn't help matters that
he was hit hard upon returning to Charlotte after spring training. Over the first two months, he was 2-6 with a 5.97 ERA, and he gave up more homers before the All-Star break in 2007 (10) than he did over the entire 2006 season (nine).
The good news: He owned a 2.67 ERA over his last 84 1/3 innings after slashing his walk rate and improving his ground ball numbers. I thought that second-half performance
made Haeger worthy of a September call-up, but Kenny Williams and Co. thought differently. Lance Broadway received the call instead,
answered it sufficiently, and is now ahead of Haeger in the pecking order.
Still, Haeger has his best shot at making an impact at the major-league level in 2008 for a few reasons:
No. 1: The rotation is significantly weaker. John Danks won the open competition for the only open rotation slot last year in Tucson. He didn't pitch well enough to keep it, and with Jon Garland returning home to California, there are two spots up for grabs. Gavin Floyd has the best stuff of the group, as well as the worst head, and Haeger has outpitched Broadway in the minors for a couple years straight. Jack Egbert is the wild card (and
Mike Pindelski has a write-up on Egbert over at The Bard's Room).
No. 2: Long-relief outings are waiting to be had. Whoever fills the back end of the rotation will likely leave a lot of scraps on the table. Contreras, Floyd and Danks can ramp up their pitch counts in a hurry.
No. 3: This is his last option year. A knuckleballer with Haeger's minor-league track record is a terrible thing to waste. Since the high minors are Amy Winehouse-thin, I can't see why the Sox would proceed carelessly with one guy who could serve as a bridge for the next few years while Williams tries to restock the farm talent.
Unfortunately, there's one thing that could cancel out what is currently in Haeger's favor -- and it's before the season even starts.
I'm talking about Tucson. The Arizona air
has not been kind to Charlie in years past:
- 2006: 10 1/3 IP, 19 H, 22 R, 12 ER, 8 BB, 8 K
- 2007: 13 1/3 IP, 19 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 6 BB, 7 K
The Sox know the geography renders Haeger far less effective, but he disappointed in March last year, even when his bosses graded on a curve. And this was during a spring where
Nick Masset walked as many guys as he struck out and still had a job waiting for him in April.
After a season that featured one spectacular bullpen implosion after another, Guillen and the other evaluators won't be nearly as generous over the next two months. Since the second half of the season, Sox coaches
have emphasized spring training as real competition and not a place to "get work in" since at least August, so Haeger will need a heaping helping of luck to make the 25-man roster at the end of March.
Still, whether the desert cooks Haeger this spring, hopefully Haeger won't let it carry into April. And if that happens, hopefully the Sox recognize the difference. It's easy to grow disenchanted with any knuckleballer, more so with an inexperienced one, but Haeger has a ton to offer the Sox if he succeeds. We'll have to see if the Sox afford him the generous and forgiving opportunity he'll need.
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In case you were wondering, Oakland's revised prospect rankings in aforementioned Prospectus article:
- No. 3: Fautino De Los Santos
- No. 5: Gio Gonzalez
- No. 7: Chris Carter
- No. 9: Aaron Cunningham
Ryan Sweeney didn't make the top 11, but he's around. Oakland
also took Fernando Hernandez in the Rule 5 draft last month and
invited Casey Rogowski and Ryan Wing to spring training.
At this rate, when I restart the minor league round-ups, it might make more sense to follow Sacramento and Midland instead of Charlotte and Birmingham.