posted on Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:40 AM
by
Jim
ZiPS ahoy!
Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory has posted
his ZiPS projections for the 2008 White Sox. First impressions:
*Jim Thome is the only hitter projected to fare better than the average first baseman, left fielder or right fielder -- and he's only projected to hit .253/.378/.487. I think it underestimates Paul Konerko (.262/.347/.474).
*Jermaine Dye has an enormous swing between his optimistic (.293/.367/.573) and pessimistic (.242/.297/.415) projections, although his age comparables are kinder than the ones Baseball-Reference.com suggests. Andre "The Hawk" Dawson and Ellis "The Fun Police" Burks had at least one more outstanding year in the tank each.
*Without looking -- between Mike MacDougal, Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton, can you guess which reliever is pegged to have the worst year?
*Interesting comparisons:- Josh Fields: .259/.334/.451, 24 HR, 61 BB, 157 K
- Joe Crede: .263/.318/.438, 16 HR, 27 BB, 50 K
- John Danks: 151 IP, 5.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 33 HR
- Gavin Floyd: 161 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 29 HR
- Gio Gonzalez: 148 IP, 6.20 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 34 HR, 127 K
- Jack Egbert: 164 IP, 4.72 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 16 HR
- Jason Bourgeois: .263/.315/.373, 23-for-31 in stolen bases
- Pablo Ozuna: .271/.311/.349, 8-for-12 in SB
- Carlos Quentin: .249/.342/.428
- Scott Podsednik: .262/.327/.345
*Over/under for the young outfielders:
- Ryan Sweeney: .266/.330/.390. Under.
- Brian Anderson: .251/.313/.395. Under, and for another team.
- Jerry Owens: .261/.325/.338. Over, but not by much.
Overall, I think this is a pretty pessimistic set, although when you consider the age of the guys who suffered stark declines in performance, and the rookies who are having a hard time floating in the majors, all the projections are defensible.