Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - Posts

Catching up: Pitchers

Revisiting the weekend on the mound:

Mark Buehrle:  After being sabotaged on many occasions this year by both the offense and the bullpen, it was nice to see Buehrle get bailed out by those two parties during an otherwise unremarkable start.  The 10th win ensures his sixth straight with double digits, and also gets him back over .500 for the season.  If Don Cooper does shut him down for the season, it'll be his fifth winning season in seven as a starter.

It surprised me to find out when looking at his splits that Buehrle owns a 5.08 ERA since the start of August, not all that better than his ERA over the last two months of his abysmal second half last year.  To me, it doesn't seem like he pitched that poorly -- he was only truly roughed up in two starts, and managed quality starts in more than half his outings (five of nine).

Then you look at the lines:
  • 2006: .336/.376/.580 -- 5.35 ERA
  • 2007: .284/.337/.441 -- 5.08 ERA
So in terms of runs allowed, either Buehrle was unlucky in August and September this year, very lucky last year, or both.  What I do know is that I'd take this year every year from Buehrle, especially in the wake of such a scary decline.

Javier Vazquez:  With 11 strikeouts in his start against Minnesota Saturday, Vazquez topped 200 for the season.  I covered this a couple months ago, but I think it's worth updating that piece to show how rare this feat is for a White Sox starter.

Javy has one more start on the season, and if Ozzie Guillen doesn't limit his workload, he'll have a chance to set the modern-day (read: not-Ed-Walsh) franchise strikeout record.  The list:
  1. 269 -- Ed Walsh, 1908, 464 IP
  2. 258 -- Ed Walsh, 1910, 369.2 IP
  3. 255 -- Ed Walsh, 1911, 368.2 IP
  4. 254 -- Ed Walsh, 1912, 393 IP
  5. 215 -- Gary Peters, 1967, 260 IP
  6. 210 -- Wilbur Wood, 1971, 334 IP
  7. 209 -- Tom Bradley, 1972, 260 IP
  8. 207 -- Esteban Loaiza, 2003, 226.1 IP
  9. 206 -- Tom Bradley, 1971, 285.2 IP
  10. 206 -- Ed Walsh, 1907, 422.1 IP
  11. 205 -- Gary Peters, 1964, 273.2 IP
  12. 204 -- Javier Vazquez, 2007, 209 IP
  13. 200 -- Alex Fernandez, 1996, 258 IP
So Javy needs 12 strikeouts in order to top the list.  That's certainly possible, since Javy struck out 13 Royals Sept. 17.  It won't be easy, since he's scheduled to face the Detroit Tigers this time around.  If the Sox were serious, they'd bump him up a day to take what was Buehrle's start (now Lance Broadway's) in the finale of this series against Kansas City, since Monday's off day would still provide for him regular rest.

At the very least, even if Vazquez can't rack up a dozen whiffs, he can console himself with the franchise single-season record for strikeouts per nine innings.  Right now, he stands at 8.79 K/9 IP, just a notch above Juan Pizarro's franchise-best rate of 8.69, which he achieved back in 1961.

Mike Myers:  Since joining the team on Aug. 21, Myers has pitched in 15 games.  That's good enough for a share of the team lead with Ehren Wassermann.  Unlike Wassermann, Myers isn't exactly making the most of it. 

G
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA
WHIP
15
13
17
15
13
3
6
5
9.00
1.61

This is downright frightening, because it seems to me that they're giving Myers every opportunity to make next year's team, even though his utility is extremely limited.  They may overlook the horrible outings because he threw four straight hitless outings -- over which he pitched three innings -- before getting shelled again Sunday

Unfortunately, Boone Logan has been just as bad as Myers over that stretch, because a halfway-decent Logan would probably give the Sox no real reason to keep Myers around (aside from provenness).  Still,  considering he's 15 years younger and throws 15 m.p.h. harder than Myers, I'd bank on Logan outperforming the elder LOOGY in 2008.

And "bank" is a key word, because Myers' option is worth $1.1 million next year.  Logan would still be making the league minimum, so that's around a $700,000 difference.

Keep that $700,000 in mind, because the Sox PR crew is already rolling out the "next year's draft pick might cost too much!" line, which the Chicago Tribune has picked up on as well.  Basically, they're laying the groundwork to bitch about the possibility of paying above slot -- meaning $2 to $3.5 million -- for a top 10 draft pick next June.  Myers' potential salary pretty much makes up the differential.

Like every other organization, the Sox find a way to burn that amount of money each year.  Even on the fiscally brilliant 2005 team, Timo Perez sopped up $1 million for sub-replacement level production.  Kenny Williams doesn't even need to pick up Myers' option for this to happen, because they still have to pay Pablo Ozuna $1.2 million coming off a broken leg (although a healthy Ozuna has his uses).

That said, the Sox shouldn't be sweating an extra million for a top-flight draft pick who they'll desperately need to deliver.  The Sox's lower-minor system is practically barren, outside of Chris Carter and maybe John Shelby.  They had no position players worth talking about in Winston-Salem this year after trading Aaron Cunningham.

In other words, they really can't afford to let $500,000 to $1.5 million sway them from signing a draft pick they believe in.  I could go on, but the Cheat hammered on this scheme earlier today.

Catching up: Hitters

Notes from over the weekend:

Jerry Owens:  After a series against the Twins that featured a five-hit game, Jerry Owens' line now resembles a useful major leaguer's in some respects:
  • Bad: .267/.327/.314 on season
  • OK: .285/.347/.335 since second call-up.
  • Very good:  .360/.429/.400 in September
The league-average OBP for the AL is .344, meaning that since being handed the starting job, Owens is above-average, albeit ever so slightly, in terms of getting on base.

That's huge.  The biggest problem with the White Sox's offense is that more than half of it is way too good at making outs.  Although we don't know whether he can sustain this level of performance, Owens has taken himself out of that group for the time being.

If Kenny Williams does his job, Owens will have to fight for his job next spring.  As long as he keeps showing up -- and two hits off Johan Santana is a nice touch -- I like his chances.

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Josh Fields:  Say hello to your most recent AL Player of the Week:

Fields hit .524 (11-21) with three doubles, one triple, three home runs and six RBI. He slugged 1.190, had an onbase percentage of .615, while scoring 10 runs and 25 total bases. The 24-year-old rookie third baseman went 6-for- 12 with one home run, four RBI and six runs scored during a three-game set at Kansas City (September 17-19). In a three-game weekend series at Minnesota (September 21-23), the former Oklahoma State University quarterback was 5-for-9, including a multi-homer game on September 21st. On the season, Fields is batting .249 with 22 home runs and 65 RBI. This marks the first weekly award of Josh's career.

Of course, this streak came on the heels of a 3-for-29 slump. So after all the mashing, Fields' average is back to where it was Aug. 17.  On a brighter note, he currently owns a season-high in slugging percentage at .490.

Fields will be moving back to third after Andy Gonzalez cut his hand applying the tag at third after Fields' misplay Saturday.  This will be interesting to watch -- if Fields can look competent at third for a game here and a game there, that should dramatically increase his value to the 2007 club.  That will make it easier to cut ties with Joe Crede should his back not improve (or if he plays well enough to be traded for something of value).

The first step will be looking better than Andy Gonzalez on an individual-game basis.  After watching Gonzalez's throws in the Minnesota series, it shouldn't be that hard.

********************

Jim Thome:  The Gentleman Masher has nine home runs in his last 15 games.  He's finishing his season in quite a different fashion compared to 2006, considering it took Thome two months to hit his last nine homers.

Of course, that probably has something to do with playing in 20 fewer games this year.  This year, he suffered a significant power outage in the first half.

Thome still figures to be worth his salary, but Williams has to treat him like a 120-game player if he's to make an impact throughout the 2008 season, instead of in sporadic bursts.  The obvious solution: Turn Thome into a strict platoon player, since Thome's hitting .194/.302/.353 against lefties this year. 

Fields would be an ideal complement, but once again, Williams will have to find an outfielder better than Owens.  He hasn't done that in two years.