Back in the day (meaning a week and a half ago), I tried to figure out
how the Sox could save $20 million next year. Here was the sixth and final step:
6. Joe Crede.- $4.94 in 2007, last year of arbitration in 2008.
- Replacement: Josh Fields, $380,000
- Savings: ~$3.5 million (read on)
Here's
one idea: Non-tender Crede, move Fields back to third, buy out Darin
Erstad's contract (he's not worth $3.5 million, but a new, reduced deal
wouldn't surprise me), and, if Gload's available, stick him in Erstad's
role as primary left fielder and backup first baseman.
This
decision might be the toughest one Kenny Williams has to make all
offseason -- at least ones independent of other teams. Letting Crede
go would be an incredibly unpopular move, but considering the meager
returns on Rob Mackowiak and Tadahito Iguchi in their contract years,
Crede's salary isn't as much about actual dollars as it is about
opportunity cost, especially since Scott Boras' presence makes a new
contract for Crede highly unlikely.
It's still a sound theory on its face, but it would become increasingly hard to sell given the recent performances by Alex Cintron, Josh Fields and Andy Gonzalez, or as I like to call them, the Out Of Position Stars (a.k.a. OOPS). They've put together a helluva lowlight reel over the past four days:
- Sept. 10: Gonzalez gets hit in the chest by a grounder. He's able to pick it up, but he fires it into the dugout. The run comes around to score. One run.
- Sept. 9: Cintron gets hit in the chest with a chopper one inning, and the run comes around score. He then mishandles another chopper a couple innings later, and that's followed by a three-run homer. Four runs.
- Sept. 8: Cintron handles a grounder, but inexplicably throws high and wide to first. A Minnesota rally follows. Four runs.
- Sept. 7: Cintron spikes a throw on a potential inning-ending double play ball, leading to: Six runs.
If you go back a bit further, you can throw
Gonzalez's three-error inning into the mix as well.
That leaves Fields as the option closest to competency -- and he has noticeable flaws as well, most notably the absence of a lateral first step in either direction. Even if he's the best option, it's still a considerable dropoff. The Cheat points to metrics estimating
Fields is 50-60 plays worse than Crede over the course of a season. Once every 2.7 games? Sounds about right.
It's understandable that Crede's presence is a gigantic question mark. Ozzie Guillen has made it clear that
he doesn't want Crede using the 2008 regular season as a rehab assignment, which he can use as a springboard to a lucrative contract with a different team. Recovery is far from a given, too -- Crede could just as easily think he's healthy, until he has to head back to the disabled list after a month of flopping around the infield.
At the same time, there's no way that Willams can sell the OOPS as a viable holdover option. Fields actually looks pretty good in left, and if
Greg Walker can help him develop plate discipline he manages to figure out how to shorten his swing via some combination of extra BP, willpower, vitamins, milk and/or prayer, the outfield could go from a major weakness to a solid strength in one year's time.
It's easy to say from 1,000 miles away that the Sox should save themselves $4.5 million and extra headaches by non-tendering Crede, but I'm not a season ticketholder. If I were plunking down a couple thousand to subject myself to White Sox baseball 81 times a year, intentionally punting a key defensive spot would probably enrage me.
Unless Williams is willing to grin and bear it, the only other option is a trade. Mike Lowell is
the only desirable free agent option, and that should ensure him a pretty hefty payday.
Denver Post reporter Troy E. Renck suggested
a Jon Garland-for-Brian Fuentes deal, which I think would be awful considering Fuentes will be a free agent as well, and I'd rather have the guy who pitches 200 innings instead of the guy who pitches 70.
They do have a couple of third base options --
Garrett Atkins at the major-league level, and
Ian Stewart at Triple-A. The former is probably too high for Garland, because while I think they're on par talentwise, Atkins is only at the start of his arbitration years. The latter is likely too low -- Stewart sported an OPS 310 points higher at hitter-friendly Colorado Springs than he did on the road.
Those options are admittedly unlikely, but I'd rather see their names bandied about instead of Fuentes'. As bad as the bullpen has been, volatility of reliever performances lead me to believe that this year's results have to be damn near the bottom of the barrel.
Crede's absence -- and the highly conspicuous failures of his
replacements during -- shines a brighter light on a bigger problem.
When he's not healthy, the Sox don't have anybody on the left side of
the infield who can hit, and only one who can field. Unlike with
bullpens, that's not going to change with the calendars.
**********************
Hat tip to Brush Back at SSS for the link to
this really cool slideshow of Comiskey Park.
Funny thing to me is that the pictures of the Palace aren't the revelation -- it's
the Frank Sinatra song that serves as the soundtrack. I consider myself fairly well versed in his catalogue, and I'd never heard it before. I will have to try to legally acquire it.