It's been
written in a
few places that the collection of flamethrowers Kenny Williams has assembled should be well conditioned to survive in homer-happy U.S. Cellular Field. My initial instinct countered that thought with, "Well, that's what was supposed to happen in 2006."
After all, each returning member of
the 2005 bullpen had respectable home run rates. Luis Vizcaino featured the worst of the bunch (a not-awful 1.03 HR/9 IP), and he wasn't back. Damaso Marte probably would've been taken deep more often if he hit the strike zone, and Williams traded him to Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Dustin Hermanson, Neal Cotts, Cliff Politte and Bobby Jenks were set to return, and Brandon McCarthy also managed to reduce the number of gopher balls in his second big-league stint. Between them, they gave up only 20 homers in 267 innings.
In
2006, that workload was cut to 208 2/3 innings thanks to injuries to Politte and Hermanson ... and yet they managed to surrender
more than twice the 2005 total (42). Cotts was particularly awful, increasing his homers allowed total 13 times over.
Adding to the oddity was that the pitcher pegged to be a home run waiting to happen kept the ball in the park. Matt Thornton went from allowing 13 homers in 57 innings at spacious Safeco Field to allowing only five in 54 innings at the far cozier Cell.
This is why
I'm never a big fan of spending a lot of money on the bullpen. Outside of the top 10 percent of relievers, performances fluctuate too much to invest heavily in them.
I haven't been thrilled at the way Kenny Williams has gone about business this offseason, but I can't say anything bad about the bullpen he's assembled. When you look at the home run rates, there are reasons to be excited. Here were the HR/9 rates for the top five arms of the 2006 bullpen at the start of Spring Training last year, along with what they did in '06:
(* Denotes partial season in minors. ** Full season in minors)
With the exception of McCarthy, none of those track records are bad, and Black Mac had his reasons for optimism. I'd consider anything under 1.00 desirable since it can take relievers a month to work off one bad outing when it comes to homers.
Nevertheless, the results were awful.
Politte and
Hermanson had their reasons, of course, but Cotts' nosedive never was explained. So it looks like Kenny's taken three extra steps to ensure success at home -- not only is he concentrating on lower homer rates, but he's also looked for younger (read: healthier) and stronger arms. Here's what the Sox's top five arms have accomplished so far entering Spring Training:
Only three scary years stick out: Thornton's 2005, David Aardsma's 2006, and Nick Masset's 2005. I think most Sox fans feel comfortable with Thornton, since
Don Cooper announced he found a flaw in Thornton's delivery, and his control improved dramatically.
As far as Aardsma, his rate looks less frightening when considering he gave up three homers in one disastrous outing
against St. Louis August 18. After it, he gave up only one homer in his last 24-1/3 innings, posting a 1.85 ERA during that stretch.
Nobody knows what will become of Masset, but supposedly he's become a whole different animal since the Rangers turned him into a full-time reliever.
Those are the caveats. Now here's what's to like:
- The average age is 27.
- Mike MacDougal is the only one who has hit arbitration.
- Each of them throws 95 or harder.
And we're not even taking into account Andy Sisco, who despite his struggles in Kansas City last year has a career HR/9 rate of 0.94.
There's little wonder why Ozzie's excited as he is for late-inning situations next season. If these guys even meet 75 percent of their potential, I'll be thrilled right along with him.