Monday, February 05, 2007 - Posts

Taking the lead

Eleven days until pitchers and catchers, and so begins the season of Spring Training previews.  The Chicago Tribune's Dave Van Dyck is the first to offer his initial glance at Tucson, and the Cheat has done the heavy lifting in poking holes in his column, so I don't have to.  All I'll say in direct rebuttal is it's rather unfair that he holds Javier Vazquez accountable for the Sox offense getting shut down Kason F. Gabbard.

That said, it's apparent that the season's first non-predicament predicament is the Sox's leadoff spot.  Not only does Van Dyck offer his perspective:

With their leadoff hitter expected to miss all of spring training because of hernia surgery, part of the White Sox's go-go seems to have gone-gone. Not that the Podsednik of last season was close to the Podsednik of 2005, but someone has to set the stage for an offense that should score runs.

So who bats leadoff? Newcomer Darin Erstad? Tadahito Iguchi? Pablo Ozuna? Maybe rookie Jerry Owens?  It is far from a perfect list and could end up being Guillen's biggest problem.

But Scott Merkin also references the No. 1 hole in his mailbag:

If Podsednik is unable to go at the start of the regular season, I would expect Erstad to get the nod in left field and as the lineup's leadoff hitter, at least against right-handed pitchers, and Anderson to start in center.

Leadoff hitting doesn't concern me.  My only request is that the Sox don't give the most offensive opportunities to the players least likely to succeed.  That's exactly what happened last year.

When going over the top-of-the-order possibilities, it makes me miss Ross Gload a little bit more, even if Andrew Sisco could end up being a better deal.  If given the opportunity, I still feel Gload would've been able to get the job done.

Nevertheless, here are how I'd rate the leadoff possibilites, free of snark:

AGAINST RIGHTIES:

1. Rob Mackowiak 

What's to like:  Posted a .384 OBP against righties last year, which would be well above-average in the leadoff spot.  Batted .389/.421/.574 leading off innings in 2006.  Saw 3.81 pitches per plate appearances, which is above-average.  Solid baserunner, can occasionally swipe a base (career success rate: 74 percent).  Fair enough contact hitter in situations where strikeouts are detrimental.  A corner outfielder by trade, so he has a spot.

What's not to like:  Impotent against lefties, which could cause late-inning complications.  Not a track star.

2. Tadahito Iguchi

What's to like:  Posted a .363 OBP against righties last year, and basically batted leadoff last year with the out machines hitting before him.  Sees 3.93 pitches per plate appearance, and can make pitchers work.  He's one of the Sox's few smart baserunners, and has registered double-digit steal totals in his two big-league seasons.  Extra-base power means he doesn't have to steal that much, either.

What's not to like:  Sometimes he can't hit righties at all.  As mentioned in his preview, he hit .335/.391/.477 against righties from April through July, and .237/.315/.374 from August on.  Strikes out a lot, and was the second-worst bad-ball hitter in the American League, so he's not exactly pest-like. 

3. Pablo Ozuna

What's to like:  When healthy, can be a menace to pitchers' morale while boosting his own team.  OBP of .388 last year against righties.  Makes defenses work.  While not a true basestealer, has no problem scoring from second on a base hit, and also goes from first to home better than anyone, save a healthy Podsednik.

What's not to like:  When banged up, almost entirely ineffective.  Never had a season like last year, so all signs point to fluke.  Defense is iffy, though he improved throughout the season.  Not a good basestealer, energy ball ways can backfire.

4. Darin Erstad

What's to like:  Above-average in outfield if he didn't lose skills completely over past two seasons.  Hits righties better than lefties.  Smart basestealer, if knee injuries haven't sapped his speed.

What's not to like:  Only one season with above-average OBP against righties in his last five, and doesn't possess power or speed to make up for lack of total bases.  Baserunning is questionable after multiple injuries, surgeries. 

5.  Ryan Sweeney 

What's to like:  Posted .363 OBP against righties in Charlotte last year.  Features gap power at least, decent speed and plate patience.  All signs point to above-average defense.

What's not to like:  Went 8-for-35 last year with zero walks during September call-up, so leading off is a lot of pressure for a 22-year-old who didn't hit the ground running.

6.  Jerry Owens

What's to like:  Speedy, with a significant improvement in basestealing in 2006.  Decent on-base skills against righties (.363) in Charlotte.

What's not to like:  Pretty much Pods without the major-league success.  Can't hit lefties, no track record, and rag arm.

AGAINST LEFTIES:

1. Pablo Ozuna

What's to like:  .358 OBP against lefties last year, and also hit them well in 2005 (.306/.340).  As aforementioned, makes things happen.  Doesn't have to be pinch-hit for against specialists, as has been shown.

What's not to like:  Same caveats apply.  Given the weird ways he manages to get on base, can be prone to major slumps.

2.  Tadahito Iguchi

What's to like:  He hit lefties better than righties in 2005 (.353 OBP to .337), and spanked them in last two months of 2006 (.304/.422/.435).

What's not to like:  From April to August, Iguchi went .224/.286 against southpaws.  It really depends on which Iguchi shows up.

3. Josh Fields

What's to like:  Posted an OBP of .427 against lefties in Charlotte while slugging .615.  Stole 28 bases in 33 attempts.  Strikeouts wouldn't kill team if No. 8, 9 hitters continue to suck.  Plainly put, this idea intrigues the hell out of me.

What's not to like:  Not typical leadoff hitter in that he hits for power and struck out tons in Triple-A, so he doesn't fit Ozzie Guillen's mold.  Major-league contact could be hard to come by.  Though a gifted athlete, he's unproven in left.  May not see enough at-bats overall for Kenny Williams to carry him on 25-man roster.

4.  Alex Cintron

What's to like:  Throw out his 2006 season, and he has a line of .314/.356/.449 against lefties.  Smart baserunner.  Can play multiple positions adequately.

What's not to like:  If he duplicates his 2006 line (.274/.308/.290), forget it.

5. Luis Terrero

What's to like:  Fast.  Performed well against lefties and righties in Triple-A last year.  Can play all three outfield positions.

What's not to like:  Has never experienced success in majors.  May not even make big-league club.
posted Monday, February 05, 2007 11:03 PM by Jim with 2 Comments