Sunday, February 18, 2007 - Posts

Rejecter's remorse

Kenny Williams today said that he's not going to offer in-season extensions to Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye and Tadahito Iguchi, instead giving them the option to see what free agency has in store before negotiating with the White Sox.

While it sounds like something significant, I don't see a lot of impact in this statement.  Williams isn't going to announce the entire contract process through the media, so this is probably an effort to keep the financial heat off three guys who will play a major role in the Sox's playoff prospects in 2007.  If the players genuinely want to get something done, Williams isn't going to deny them the opportunity.

Buehrle will be the one to watch, specifically, because of the recent revelation that he rejected a three-year deal sometime last July.  As we all know, he then proceeded to nosedive the rest of the year.

And that was the second time that's happened to Buehrle.

Before the 2003 season, Buehrle rejected a deal in the neighborhood of five years and $27 million in Spring Training.  He then proceeded to go through the worst stretch of his career before the last half of 2006.  At his worst, he was 2-10 with a 5.18 ERA.  He straightened it out eventually, but after the season he and the Sox brokered his current contract -- three years, $27 million with the club option.

Perhaps that set a precedent, because Buehrle underwent another terrible three-month stretch to end the season, with a rejected contract extension at the beginning of it all. We don't have an exact date, but from July to the end of the season, Buehrle went 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA, and was the worst pitcher in the AL in the second half.

Since Buehrle threw 16 starts from July to October, let's add up those with the first 16 starts he made in 2003:

W-LIPHHRBBKERA
6-19190.22433755985.95

That's a full season's worth of work.  It should be mentioned that 5.95 ERA is buoyed by a Buehrle-tastic 12 unearned runs in the 16 starts from 2003.

It's all probably coincidence, but it'd be fascinating if Buehrle genuinely did have issues when leaving guaranteed money on the table.  If the Sox didn't have legitimate playoff hopes, I'd be tempted to offer him four years at $50 million on April 1 and see what happens.

Twelve's a crowd

Here's one storyline I'd like to see go away:

MLB.com:
Ozzie Guillen still is entertaining thoughts of breaking camp with 12 pitchers, meaning there would be just four bench spots available...

Daily Southtown:
Whether the Sox break camp with 11 or 12 pitchers also will be a big decision Guillen has to make.

Chicago Tribune:
But one of the biggest debates will be whether the Sox carry 12 pitchers or opt for one more position player.

To me, it's no debate at all -- carry an extra bench player.  Leave the anal-rententive match-up crap to Tony La Russa, because as it stands now, the Sox have a five-man bench that complements its starters well (assuming Darin Erstad is starting for Scott Podsednik):

The elements:
  1. Toby Hall.  Helps Pierzynski against lefties, better arm.
  2. Alex Cintron.  Only switch-hitter on the team, decent defender at three positions.
  3. Pablo Ozuna.  Secret weapon.  Basically will do anything he's told.
  4. Rob Mackowiak.  Good bat, good arm, good on-base skills. 
  5. Eduardo Perez. Cleveland Eduardo would help Thome (and maybe Erstad) against LHP.
I'm also hearing Luis Terrero's name bandied about, but he's never come close to producing.

Though ideally Mack would be starting in left with Erstad on the bench, the above fivesome would be hard to beat, giving the Sox three options at most of the positions on the diamond with the ability to fill in as starters for short stretches.

It'd be silly to waste that ideal sort of flexibility for a pitcher nobody would trust -- the dreaded third lefty.  Ozzie Guillen has said he wants three southpaws to be able to fend off big lefty bats like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, et al.  The problem is that three of those four guys have learned how to hit lefties:
Right now, Sizemore's the only guy who's truly exploitable in a match-up situation, and I wouldn't be surprised if he figured it out in 2007.  He's good to great in every other facet of the game, and I doubt the 2007 equivalent of Kevin Walker or Boone Logan is going to make him or any of these other guys tremble in their spikes.

The Sox have three apparent horses in their bullpen in Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks.  Nick Masset and David Aardsma could very easily be two more.  If all goes well, the Sox will already have an inherent luxury in that sixth bullpen spot, to either go with a second lefty who presents himself or Charlie Haeger in long relief.  At that point, how many innings would this seventh reliever see a week?  It's hard to see any opportunities left.

The 2005 bullpen had only one reliable lefty, yet Guillen never managed his pitchers better because he trusted the hot hand.  To a certain extent, playing matchups is an acceptable way of going by the book.  Overdoing it, however, leads to a violation of a more important rule -- the more pitchers you bring in, the greater the chance of finding the guy who doesn't have it that day.