Monday, December 31, 2007 - Posts

Lowballing isn't always bad

Over at South Side Sox, the Cheat is doing fascinating work on pitch type data, analyzing what our pitchers can and can't throw, and what hitters can and can't hit.

Josh Fields is the most recent subject, and as we're all aware, he's not good at hitting fastballs, due to that big loop his hands make before coming forward.  In that discussion, 3E8 made a great video illustrating it, contrasting Fields' hand path against Paul Konerko's, who by no coincidence holds his back elbow considerably higher:



That hitch could be the only thing preventing Fields from developing into a more complete hitter.  Fixing it might rob him of some of his power, but evidently he has plenty to spare.

According to HitTracker, No. 27 finished 27th in the majors in average home run distance last year.  Fields led the Sox with an average of 397.1 feet per homer, just ahead of Jim Thome (396.3).  He also owns the Sox's three longest homers according to HitTracker's "true distance" estimate.  The longest: Fields' dead-center shot at Kauffman Stadium Sept. 17.

That one was on a fastball -- one that was thigh-high.  That's the one kind of fastball Fields can hit, and it doesn't matter if it's Brandon Duckworth throwing it in that Sept. 17 blast (89 m.p.h.) or J.J. Putz (95 m.p.h.) a month before.  The homer off Putz, which traveled 418 feet according to HitTracker, was on the inside corner and running in, and Fields still got around on it -- because it was low.

This is where the one danger lies in trying to fix that hitch.  I present to the court a couple of graphs, the first illustrating the location of fastballs Konerko and Fields have turned into homers (Konerko's homers are in orange):



The second illustrates what pitches Konerko and Fields have turned into hits (Konerko on left):



Now if you look at where the orange (doubles) and black (home runs) marks are concentrated in the hit charts, you'll see that Konerko generates more of his extra-base hit power from pitches up in the zone, while Fields is the opposite.

Right now, that's what Fields does well -- exceptionally well if the pitcher is left-handed -- convert low pitches into majestic bombs.  In fact, contrary to other right-handed hitters to come up through the Sox system like Aaron Rowand, Joe Crede and Brian Anderson, Fields likes breaking balls a lot more.  That's why it could be treacherous to take on this task -- it's not a guarantee that addressing the hitch would make him a better high-ball hitter, and in the process, it could rob him of the one thing he's good at so far in his big-league career.

Greg Walker hasn't yet addressed Fields' weaknesses to my knowledge.  The last I saw, Walker was content letting Josh Fields "be Josh Fields."  He did the same thing with Danny Richar, waiting and watching before finally offering some input, and Richar still hasn't recovered (Dominican League OPS: .500).  I'm fearing the same for Fields, except he means far more to the franchise than Richar.  And the last thing Sox fans need is one less reason to watch games.