This is the best news I've heard in a while:
The White Sox have backed off free-agent center fielder Aaron Rowand
because they prefer to sign him for four rather than five years,
according to a source with knowledge of their thinking. The Sox are
among the teams interested in Japanese free-agent outfielder Kosuke
Fukudome, a rival GM says, and also are exploring a possible deal for
Pirates left fielder Jason Bay.
All three of those points are good news, but out of those three players, I think I might be most skeptical about Bay's future. Maybe it's because he's the only one who would require talent to acquire.
But Bay has been a mess physically. He
turned down surgery for tendonitis in his right knee, which Pirates physicians seem to think he developed after compensating for a bad left knee, for which he did undergo surgery. He's also gone under the knife for injuries to his wrist and labrum in years past.
Making matters worse is that the Pirates quite possibly boast the worst medical staff in the league. They make the Cubs' crew look like a team of Houses by comparison. So when reading
this article by one of my favorites, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic, I can't say I'm encouraged. Notable excerpts:
The glove: "Bay has been plagued by poor jumps, dubious judgment and a
failure to be aggressive, the sum of which has caused some to
accuse him of looking tentative or even lacking passion."
The arm: "Beginning in full force with that series in Anaheim, when the
Angels turned just about every poke to left field into extra bases,
teams have run liberally against Bay. Even a shallow popup to left
is cause for tagging up [....] Bay never had a strong arm, even before a torn labrum in his
right shoulder was repaired in late 2003, a procedure significant
enough that it often derails a pitcher's career. But it never
seemed so clear a liability until this season."
The bat: "Most mystifying -- and costly -- to the Pirates has been Bay's
diminishing offense. Manager Jim Tracy has confessed to losing
sleep over it. Hitting coach Jeff Manto no doubt has done
likewise. Bay, to be sure, is handling it even harder."
That article was published on Aug. 7, when he was hitting .257/.331/.435. He hit .238/.316/.368 the rest of the way.
Give Bay a better medical staff, a smaller left field and get him the hell out of Pittsburgh, and he could be the ultimate rebound candidate. He's not even that expensive -- he's set to make $5.75 million in 2008, and $7.5 million in 2009.
But given that he has two relatively cheap years on his contract and is coming off a season in which he was a below-average player in most facets of the game, I'm not sure why the Pirates would want to sell this low. Sure, the Phillies traded Jim Thome for below his worth, but Thome blocked Ryan Howard. Given the state of the Pirates system, Bay isn't blocking anybody.
I'd be shocked if Bay-related negotiations became anything resembling heated, but if Kenny Williams were to go down this path, it would require two things:
No. 1: Due diligence. The Sox can't afford to part with any talent if there's a significant chance Bay could be the equivalent of 2007 Freddy Garcia in terms of suspicious health status.
No. 2: Center field defense. Jerry Owens can run down a fly ball just fine, but he can't throw. Brian Anderson can do both, but
he has yet to report to winter ball, so good luck getting him in the lineup. Ryan Sweeney has suspect range in center, although he looks good in the outfield otherwise.
None of them can really hit, but if one of them is flanked by a healthy Bay and Jermaine Dye, the Sox can absorb the bad bat. They just need a good enough defender in center to ensure the extra runs Bay creates with his bat aren't nullfied by an outfield that can't run or throw.
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Go Mizzou!