December 2007 - Posts

Lowballing isn't always bad

Over at South Side Sox, the Cheat is doing fascinating work on pitch type data, analyzing what our pitchers can and can't throw, and what hitters can and can't hit.

Josh Fields is the most recent subject, and as we're all aware, he's not good at hitting fastballs, due to that big loop his hands make before coming forward.  In that discussion, 3E8 made a great video illustrating it, contrasting Fields' hand path against Paul Konerko's, who by no coincidence holds his back elbow considerably higher:



That hitch could be the only thing preventing Fields from developing into a more complete hitter.  Fixing it might rob him of some of his power, but evidently he has plenty to spare.

According to HitTracker, No. 27 finished 27th in the majors in average home run distance last year.  Fields led the Sox with an average of 397.1 feet per homer, just ahead of Jim Thome (396.3).  He also owns the Sox's three longest homers according to HitTracker's "true distance" estimate.  The longest: Fields' dead-center shot at Kauffman Stadium Sept. 17.

That one was on a fastball -- one that was thigh-high.  That's the one kind of fastball Fields can hit, and it doesn't matter if it's Brandon Duckworth throwing it in that Sept. 17 blast (89 m.p.h.) or J.J. Putz (95 m.p.h.) a month before.  The homer off Putz, which traveled 418 feet according to HitTracker, was on the inside corner and running in, and Fields still got around on it -- because it was low.

This is where the one danger lies in trying to fix that hitch.  I present to the court a couple of graphs, the first illustrating the location of fastballs Konerko and Fields have turned into homers (Konerko's homers are in orange):



The second illustrates what pitches Konerko and Fields have turned into hits (Konerko on left):



Now if you look at where the orange (doubles) and black (home runs) marks are concentrated in the hit charts, you'll see that Konerko generates more of his extra-base hit power from pitches up in the zone, while Fields is the opposite.

Right now, that's what Fields does well -- exceptionally well if the pitcher is left-handed -- convert low pitches into majestic bombs.  In fact, contrary to other right-handed hitters to come up through the Sox system like Aaron Rowand, Joe Crede and Brian Anderson, Fields likes breaking balls a lot more.  That's why it could be treacherous to take on this task -- it's not a guarantee that addressing the hitch would make him a better high-ball hitter, and in the process, it could rob him of the one thing he's good at so far in his big-league career.

Greg Walker hasn't yet addressed Fields' weaknesses to my knowledge.  The last I saw, Walker was content letting Josh Fields "be Josh Fields."  He did the same thing with Danny Richar, waiting and watching before finally offering some input, and Richar still hasn't recovered (Dominican League OPS: .500).  I'm fearing the same for Fields, except he means far more to the franchise than Richar.  And the last thing Sox fans need is one less reason to watch games.

And so it begins: Buehrle previewed

One advantage to the no-trade clauses handed out by Kenny Williams over the past six months or so -- it makes it a little easier to set up a plan of action as I begin the 2008 edition of Meet the Sox.

Thus, Mark Buehrle became the first to be previewed for the coming season.  This is my first stab at a meatier breakdown, so let me know if there are any ways I can improve it before I make a habit of it.  The White Sox are next on the ZIPS list, so I'll add those projections as soon as they're available. 

(Add your own projections as well -- I'd like to give another shot at making a contest of it.)

Hopefully this will help carry us a little through the next couple months.  As it stands, the biggest White Sox news is that two former players signed with two new teams.  Whoopie.

At least my flight to Tucson is booked.

Sure, *now* he's a realist

Just returned from Chicago, but I figured I would share this if you haven't seen it:

The 33-year-old [Darin] Erstad fully intends to play baseball in 2008. The only question is where he’ll sign. Hint: Look to the National League. There have been some offers and Erstad expects something to happen quickly, perhaps before Jan. 1.

“It’s still up in the air, but I’m leaning toward going to the National League,” Erstad said. “I’ve come to accept the fact that my body might not be able to play every day again. I could be a utility guy, the fourth guy in the outfield, the guy who comes off the bench with a double-switch. It’ll be different, not being an everyday guy, but I think the way they play in the National League gives me the maximum opportunities to be on the field.” [...]

“It’s tough, but I haven’t been healthy. How could a team rely on me for an every day role? I can’t stay healthy,” Erstad said. “It’s not something that is easy, but it’s really the natural progression of anybody’s career. You’re not as valuable as you used to be. I’m a realist. I accept that.”

This upsets me on two levels:
  1. How come we realized this last year, and the Sox didn't?
  2. He's depriving us of laughter at another team's expense.
What I mean by the latter is that when you look back through the archives, the quotes by and about Erstad are largely quite funny.  To single out a few:

March 20: "When the season is over, [Erstad] is going to have 500 at-bats."  -- Ozzie Guillen.

March 16:  "I can do nothing but learn from him. We've already established a pretty good relationship, communication about the top of the order and what we have to do out there to be successful. It's going to be great for us."  -- Scott Podsednik.

January 27:  "The Angels had signed [Gary] Matthews, and I would have been relegated to first base, and I'm just not ready to do that yet." -- Erstad.

January 26
:  "And if Erstad is recovered fully from a right ankle injury that limited him to 40 games with the Los Angeles Angels last season, he could provide the Sox with the same type of bargain Jermaine Dye has during his two seasons after being hindered by leg injuries." -- Mark Gonzalez.

Selling himself for more playing time and money is Erstad's job, so he's not to blame.  It's just amazing to read that the 2007 season buried Erstad's hopes of regaining a starting job, only a year after the Sox made him the lynchpin of their 2006-07 offseason plan.

At any rate, hope everybody had a great Christmas, Chinese dinner or movie night.  Posting resumes in earnest tomorrow.

Sox sign unknown entity (updated)

The White Sox have reportedly signed Cuban exile Alexei Ramirez to a four-year, $4.75 million deal:

Ramirez, whose age is listed at 26, was a natural shortstop in Cuba but also can play second base and center field. His arrival does not necessarily mean that the White Sox are done pursuing a veteran outfielder, as Ramirez may need some time in the Minors to prepare himself for the big leagues.

Ramirez played briefly in the Dominican Winter League, during which he went 1-for-14 an RBI, no walks and four strikeouts.  That's the same league where Danny Richar has exactly a .500 OPS, and Pablo Ozuna is a few notches worse, so maybe they use heavier bats or something.  Maybe railroad ties.

Four years seems like a hefty contract, but the annual cost should be nothing to a team that guaranteed Ozuna a roster spot for more than a year in advance at roughly the same salary.  He also brings the added bonus of hitting from the right side of the plate and having the ability to play second and center, where both the projected starters -- Richar and Jerry Owens -- are left-handed.

At the very least, it gives us something to pay attention to for Spring Training ... even though this could turn out to be a complete disaster.  It's miles better than last year, when we were thrust into a situation where we hoped Kenny Williams' big acquisition wouldn't win the starting job.

*****************

The Cleveland Indians invited 10 players to Spring Training.  Why is this important?  Because one of them is Andy Gonzalez.  He'll probably have as great an impact as Cliff Politte did for Cleveland last year, but we can dream.

Quick hit

Technically, I'm supposed to be on vacation, but this Mitchell Report video might be the funniest thing I've seen in quite some time.

(Note: contains explicit language, inexplicable acting.)

The Stone Pony rides again

Speaking of Farmio, the Sox are going to give him a little more experience by his side next year:

[Steve] Stone has agreed to join Ed Farmer and Chris Singleton on WSCR-AM 670 on the call for White Sox home games on Fridays in 2008. There will be 13 in all, including the June 27 game against the Cubs.

Although Stone's role is fairly reduced, my enthusiasm isn't.  Stone is all about the action on the field and can usually broadcast it in a timely manner, unlike Singleton.  He also uses intonation when he speaks, which is an upgrade on Farmer.

The broadcasting highlight of the year, hands-down, was when Stone called Juan Uribe's game-winning homer in the 13th inning of the game against the Indians Aug. 8.  It'll be interesting to see if Farmer steps up his game in the prediction department, since he always sees "a bloop and a blast" coming.

******************

I'm heading home to the motherland for the holidays, spending six much-anticipated days in Chicago.  That said, I'll likely be taking a few days off the site as well, barring a blast of news.  Last year, for instance, the Sox traded Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers Dec. 23, so there's a chance I may be called into action.

Enjoy your Christmas.  And, because everything's funnier in German:

White Sox Christmas cards

I don't want to brag, but in the 22 months or so I've been doing this site, I've found my way onto some pretty exclusive mailing lists.

To show you what I mean, below I've included a sample of the Christmas cards I've received the past few weeks from members of the White Sox organization. 

Click on the card to read the message inside (they're pop-ups, for those with blockers).

A deal that shouldn't be, and a deal that wasn't

Phil Rogers throws this question our way:

Since Torii Hunter and Kosuke Fukudome won't take Jerry Reinsdorf's money, here's an idea for Ken Williams: Why not get Orlando Cabrera signed to a long-term deal before Christmas?

Allow me to answer a question with a question: Huh?

There's a crippling flaw in Rogers' analysis, in that there isn't one reference to "compensation" or "draft picks."  That's the single biggest reason why the Sox should have traded Jon Garland for Cabrera.  As long as Cabrera has a typical season, the Sox then own two first-round draft picks in 2009 and a sandwich pick, as well as some salary relief and a decent upgrade for that position for the 2008 season.

Granted, I don't necessarily think Williams will go that course, because Cabrera is Ozzie Guillen's kind of player.  I'm more inclined to think Cabrera will end up making the decision for them.  If the Sox are as bad as they could be, Cabrera might be more inclined to hop on a team closer to a championship.

If the Sox overachieve -- or if Cabrera is happy with the one ring he has and would like to stick around for a while -- then we reach my second point of contention with this piece:

Or maybe Cabrera would snap up the offer they made to Fukudome -- $50 million over four years.

Cabrera is on the last year of a four-year, $32 million contract.  He's 33, so will almost certainly perform at a lower level the next four years.  So there's no reason to pay Cabrera $4.5 million more a season for his decline, let alone make him the Sox's highest-paid position player.

Cabrera's good, but his value is almost entirely dependent on his legs, and legs don't improve as a player advances into his 30s.  He's also not a game-changer, so it's hard to envision a scenario in which he's worth more to the prospect-starved Sox than two draft picks.

Rogers is correct in that the Sox have reasons for trying to extend Cabrera's stay, and I've said before that three years and $24 million is the furthest the Sox could go before I get sick.  I'd much rather the offer be one year of arbitration, and then a handshake for a job well done when he inevitably turns it down.

Though one could quibble with the deals handed to also-30somethings Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski, the Sox lineup is still set to largely turn over by 2010 -- Mark Buehrle and Scott Linebrink are the only guys signed for 2011, not counting those who have yet to hit arbitration.  Linebrink's presence is already questionable enough, and I don't see the need to add Cabrera to the list, whether or not the Sox have immediate help on the farm.

**********************

The San Diego Union-Tribune has some fascinating insight on the Padres' interest in Tadahito Iguchi:  The whole piece is worth reading, but here are some excerpts:

One other thing about Iguchi, and I've written it a few times -- the Padres had ample opportunity to acquire him from the White Sox last summer. Even the Padres admitted they could have obtained him without giving up a solid prospect. The White Sox wanted to save money, about $1.8 million in salary. They had tried to sign Iguchi to a multi-year deal last spring. Instead, they poured money into Jermaine Dye. [...]

I think the Padres just didn't want to pay the $1.8 million. They had made a lot of cost-effective moves. They viewed this one as too much money for too little gain. [...]

Even a Padres official admitted to me recently that the club probably should have acquired Iguchi last summer.

I love these kinds of stories.  This one's particularly intriguing on a number of levels:

No. 1:  What kind of money did the Sox offer?  That would've been something if Iguchi accepted the deal, leaving Dye out in the cold.  For one, the Aaron Cunningham-for-Danny Richar trade never would have happened, but that would leave the Sox with a gigantic gap in the outfield.  Maybe Wily Mo Pena would be the starting right fielder in 2008?

No. 2:  If Iguchi wanted a one-year deal to boost his value in the next free agent season, San Diego doesn't seem like the right place to do it.  Tom Krasovic, the U-T reporter, wrote "A right-handed hitter with decent power, he should be able to reach the left-field seats at Petco Park."  As we know, most of Iguchi's power goes opposite-field, and the right-center power alley in Petco is 400 feet.

No. 3:  I would've been interested to see the numbers Iguchi could post at Coors Field.

The Sox and Padres made a different deal four days after Iguchi went to the Phillies for Michael Dubee, with the Sox sending Rob Mackowiak to San Diego for another A-ball reliever in Jon Link.  Considering the deals happened in such a short time frame, all the Sox would've gotten out of trading Iguchi to the Padres probably would've been receiving Link four days earlier.

Pods eulogized, winter leagues analyzed

After spending probably way too much time combing through his White Sox career, I've finally written the eulogy for Scott Podsednik.  I'm hoping the Joe Crede trade takes a while so I can start looking forward instead of backward.

*******************

Rotoworld unleashed its Winter Ball Review.  The White Sox in question:
  • Oneli Perez: "The White Sox tried a bunch of relievers last year, but never looked at Perez even though he ended up with a 2.10 ERA and an 89/20 K/BB ratio in 77 IP at Double-A. Maybe the team will begin to take him seriously next season."
  • Danny Richar: "Richar hardly embarrassed himself with a .230/.289/.406 line in 187 at-bats for the White Sox, but neither did he do a lot to solidify his status as a regular. The team needs to invest in a legitimate alternative."
  • Andrew Sisco:  "Sisco joined Mexicali at the beginning of the month and has made three starts since. The White Sox may give him a chance to claim a rotation spot if they fail to upgrade from Gavin Floyd. However, because his command troubles would likely make it tough for him to work deep into games, his odds of contributing are better as a reliever."
Perez should get a long look in Spring Training, where he was rocked last year.  He allows more flyballs than groundballs, so Tucson, even though it's hell for pitchers, should provide a better idea of what Oneli could do in the Cell, as would the bandbox in Charlotte.

It's amazing how much Richar's stock has fluctuated in the past year, where he went from non-prospect to real commodity in a half-season, and now deals with the perception of a dim future.  I still have reasonably high hopes for him, in that he can become a dependable, middle-tier second baseman.  It might help if he can recover from the knowledge bomb Greg Walker dropped on him.

Sisco shouldn't be involved in any plans.

Oddly enough, the article also suggest Pittsburgh's Jose Castillo as a possible match for the Sox should Kenny Williams deal either Juan Uribe or Joe Crede.  That's funny, since Castillo is basically everything people hate about Uribe (dedication and conditioning issues, no plate discipline) without any of Uribe's positive attributes (decent power, above-average glove, positive personality).

The Podsednik Paradox: Part III: 2007



Scott Podsednik's winning percentage in 2007 isn't nearly as gaudy as it was in the previous two seasons, but the fact that the Sox stayed above .500 with Podsednik in the lineup during a miserable year is a phenomenon in and of itself -- especially since Podsednik was, by and large, quite bad when he did play.

Let's see if we can find some answers.

Replacements:  Podsednik missed huge chunks of the season in 2007, so much so that it would take too much time to try to itemize his replacements.  Instead, we'll just break it down via the left fielders' stats as a whole during the periods Podsednik was broken down.

 
AB
H
XBH
RBI
BA
OBP
SLG
W-L
Apr. 18 - June 22
196
45
12
25
.230
.324
.342
24-35
July 2- July 24
79
24
6
11
.304
.371
.405
8-12
Aug. 22 - Sept. 1
41
10
2
6
.244
.267
.341
1-10
Other dates
67
20
12
14
..299
.382
.627
8-8
Total
373
98
32
56
.263
.344
.413
41-65
Podsednik
214
52
19
11
.243
.299
.369
31-25

Once again, there's a significant divide in team performance despite the fact that the replacement left fielders outperformed Podsednik in just about every facet of the game.  The "other dates" record was boosted by Josh Fields' .333/.416/.714 line in Podsednik's place after September 1, during which the Sox went 7-5.

Pitching:  As was the case in 2006, the Sox fared better with Podsednik in the lineup against lefties:
  • Sox against lefties, w/o Pods: 9-20
  • Sox against lefties, w/ Pods: 7-8
However, unlike 2006, there's a reason: Pods was actually pretty good against southpaws, as he experienced a reverse split in 2007:
  • Pods against LHP: .279/.380/.393
  • Pods against RHP: .229/.263/.359
His chief replacement, Rob Mackowiak, couldn't hit lefties.  With no complement to lefties Jerry Owens and Darin Erstad, the outfield as a whole was exposed with a lefty on the mound.

Pods also happened to miss most of the worst days for his pitchers.  The Sox staff allowed 10 runs or more in 20 games -- and Pods didn't start in 16 of them.  He missed the entire Boston Massacre and the doubleheader from hell against Minnesota, for example.  On the other hand, he didn't start the two games the Sox allowed 10 runs and won, but 2-14 still helps create a stark difference.

Streaks? Slumps? Injuries?  The only month without any perceptible difference in performance was September.  Incidentally, that was the same month Fields and Jim Thome pounded the ever-loving crap out of the ball, and Owens did a nice job getting on base at the top of the order.

Month
w/ Pods
w/o Pods
April
5-3
7-8
May
0-0
12-14
June
6-3
4-15
July
6-3
8-12
August
7-9
2-11
Sept.
8-7
7-5
The other month with a slight disparity -- April, AKA the only month the Sox had a bullpen.  Pods actually boasted a .378 before landing on the DL midway through the month, and with pitchers on both sides dominating, one guy getting on base can be worth a win here and there.  That seemed to be the story of 2005.

The Sox handled three teams with relative ease in 2007: the Tigers, Royals and Devil Rays.  Incidentally, those teams were the opposition in 24 of Podsednik's 56 starts.

On the other hand, Pods missed all the games against Boston, against whom the White Sox lost seven of eight games.  He missed all but two interleague games, as the Sox struggled mightly without a designated hitter en route to a 4-14 record against National League teams.

So what do we know?  Podsednik's importance in 2007 falls in between his impact in the two previous seasons.  In 2005, when he and his above-average OBP weren't around, the Sox didn't have anybody to pick up the slack.  In 2006, he managed to miss the right games -- there was little rhyme or reason to it, even when factoring in the Sox's struggles against left-handed pitching.

In 2007, Pods did make a difference against lefties, as well in the first half-month of the season, when he was only one of a couple Sox capable of hitting in the cold.

Still, amazing timing came into play.  How else can anybody explain Pods missing 80 percent of the Sox's worst pitching performances?  Or that he nearly played as many games against the Devil Rays (four of seven) as he did versus the other AL East teams the Sox struggled against (five of 33)?

Pods also had the benefit of a small sample size, playing in less than half the games of a doomed season.  In the end, Pods was likely more lucky than good, but at the same time, his absence repeatedly underscored the OBP issues the Sox had without him.

To me, one of the low points of the 2007 season was when Kenny Williams urged his team to be more like Thome in its plate approach.  The message was sound in theory, but reeked of smashing a square peg into a round hole.  Podsednik definitely had a purpose on the team, but he couldn't stay healthy enough to fulfill it.

Cunningham, Carter change addresses

Aaron Cunningham and Chris Carter didn't last very long in Arizona.  The Diamondbacks shipped them right along as part of a six-player package to acquire Oakland's Dan Haren.

It's amazing how quickly Arizona depleted its farm system, which I suppose you can do when most of your position players are not yet eligible for arbitration.  Either way, it's somewhat comforting to see that they weren't flipped in one-for-one deals that brought back a better return.

Speaking of Carter, Texas Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan said Kenny Williams was set to ship him in exchange for closer Akinori Otsuka:

*The Rangers were ready to trade Akinori Otsuka to the Chicago White Sox for Class A first baseman Chris Carter, who hit .291 with 25 home runs and 93 RBI in 2007. But the White Sox saw the medical reports on Otsuka and killed the deal. Carter instead went to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Carlos Quentin.

Phew.  Otsuka was not tendered a contract, so the Sox can pick him up for cash if they so choose.

One more note: The Padres opted for Jim Edmonds instead of Mike Cameron, leaving one less suitor for the center fielder.

Post-report report

Cleaning up after the Mitchell Report...

The White Sox are reviewing the 311-page document, but they have to be feeling relieved that the only four mentioned were Jose Canseco, Armando Rios, Jim Parque and Scott Schoeneweis, with Schoeneweis really the only notable case.  Don Cooper had some interesting insight on that one:

"I heard his name had come up before, but my understanding was Schoeney was taking things for a condition he had from recovering from cancer.  When Schoeneweis was cleared [by the Commissioner's Office], I said, 'Good for him.' I thought he had a condition that warranted it."

As for Canseco, he tried to gain entrance to the press conference but was denied.  He also wondered aloud why Alex Rodriguez wasn't mentioned in the report.  And so continues Canseco's remarkable post-career career path.

Speaking of former Sox,
Joe Cowley gave Frank Thomas a tip of the hat in his Sun-Times article:

''It just shows you a lot about Frank Thomas,'' [Greg] Walker said. ''I'm proud of him and his career. And the thing I'm really proud of is he never made excuses about what other guys were doing and not doing. That's the thing about Frank. He went about his business, knowing it might not be a level playing field.''

As Fundman pointed out in the Mitchell thread, Thomas added another feather to his cap by being the only player to voluntarily speak to George Mitchell.   Thomas once again adds to his record of being a lone advocate of stronger testing, and barring a shocking turn of events, that should ensure Thomas of first-ballot entry to the Hall, although I'll never be sure why people consider his case so flimsy to begin with.  It'd be pretty hypocritical to both vote against players who aged supernaturally, and those who actually suffered declines because they let nature take its course.

As expected, the Sox did tender a contract to Joe Crede, and now we await the inevitable trade.  An interesting juxtaposition in Mark Gonzalez's notes article:
  • Bobby Jenks said it's easier to keep in shape since moving his offseason home from Seattle to Chicago.
  • Jim Thome said Chicago weather makes it more difficult to manage weight, but he's dealing.
Odds and ends:

Mitchell! (updated)



While waiting to see what names the Mitchell Report uncovers today, I figured Joe Don Baker could help us bide the time.

Frank Thomas is the only player who could really disappoint me by being on the list.  I'm pretty much resigned to any other possibility.

Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte are expected to be named.  That's a hell of a start.

UPDATE: Report's out.  Jim Parque is named, but well after his Sox career.

Another interesting segment:

Matt Karchner pitched for two teams in Major League Baseball between 1995 and 2000, the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox. Members of my investigative staff contacted him as part of our effort to interview former major league players.

Karchner said that during spring training in 1999, he observed two of his Chicago Cubs teammates inject themselves with steroids in an apartment that Karchner was sharing with them. Karchner declined to identify the players. He said that one of the players brought the steroids to the apartment but was afraid of needles and therefore asked the second player to administer the shot. The second player injected the first player with steroids in the buttocks and then injected himself.

Later that season, Karchner was offered steroids by certain of his Cubs teammates. Karchner would not disclose the names of players who offered him steroids, but he said that the conversations he had with them involved the general cost of steroids and discussions of “stacking” to build lean muscle necessary for pitchers. Karchner did not report either of these incidents to anyone at the time.

Unless I'm missing something, the Sox seem to come out largely unscathed.

Love me tender, love me not

The Sox bid farewell to arguably their worst player in the last 40 years by not tendering a contract to Andy Gonzalez.

There's a chance Gonzalez could be a useful player somewhere, but his presence on the 25-man roster was just about toxic.  I'm probably as surprised as anybody not named "Andy Gonzalez," since I thought he would be an OK utility infielder by 2008.

The 40-man roster now stands at 39, which makes their failure to protect Fernando Hernandez in the Rule 5 draft all the more interesting.  There apparently wasn't a scenario in which Gonzalez would've stuck around, so why the Sox prioritized Gonzalez before Hernandez as they did confuses me a little.  Kenny Williams might've figured both of them to be dead meat after adding a free-agent outfielder, but you know what they say about counting chickens.

It's a move that is more likely to be meaningless rather than meaningful, but sometimes these deadline decisions pack a punch.  Take the non-tendering of David Riske last year -- if Riske accepted arbitration, they would've doubled the amount of reliable relievers in their bullpen last year.  If he didn't, they would've had two draft picks.  Grr.

Looks like we're still waiting for official word on the status of Joe Crede, but I imagine they tendered him.  The worst case scenario is that they agree to a contract but can't find a taker in a trade, and now that the $12-15 million earmarked for a new outfielder will be going unused, I think they could absorb the hit.

Either way, I think we can put an end to the rumors circulating around Josh Fields.

Cross Rowand off the list

In 2006, the Cubs finished in last place with 66 wins.  It took a commitment of $300 million toward free agents and a new manager to lift them to 85 wins in baseball's weakest division.

In the White Sox's case this offseason, maybe they didn't need a new manager coming off a 72-win season -- but they would need to spend roughly the same amount in order to propel them over the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers.  One huge splash wasn't going to cut it.

I suppose that's the silver lining after watching Kenny Williams miss out on the top two remaining free agent outfield options -- Kosuke Fukudome and Aaron Rowand -- in a 24-hour period.  The Sox already have too many eight-figure salaries tied up in over-30 ballplayers, and while Fukudome and Rowand would have definitely filled a hole, they are nowhere near sure things.  For all we know, they could've just been another old player paid too much by 2010.

The Cubs made a smart move, regardless of how it turns out.  They filled a hole completely, from skill set to position to handedness, and they can go into Opening Day with confidence without making another move.

The Giants, on the other hand, are in the same position as the Sox -- too many old players, and too many outmakers.  Rowand's now the best position player they have, but with the Rockies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers stacked with young talent and the Padres boasting the best pitching staff in the division, the Giants could actually fall from their win total of 71 last year.

In that way, it's like stopping the last moment to tie your shoe before crossing the street, only to watch a fellow pedestrian get pasted by a bus.

Williams is taking heat, while whitesox.com is in full spin mode, and not without reason -- he talked big and didn't deliver.  However, watching the Giants invest $12 million a year to barely improve should temper the vitriol somewhat in time.

I do feel bad for the season ticketholders, though.  There's a solid defense in that those who pay thousands of dollars should get a chance to watch as many major leaguers on the field as possible.  It's not like they get any benefit from the Sox sporting a lower payroll.

Godot doesn't show; Fukudome signs with Cubs (updated)

Last month, I was a Nielsen family.  The logs I filled out mainly consisted of college football, a couple episodes of Jeopardy! and syndicated shows I didn't catch the first time around, like The Office or Scrubs.  Suffice it to say, I don't watch much TV, mainly because I watch it too much during baseball season.

However, if I did have appointment television, I imagine the writer's strike would hit me like Kosuke Fukudome's decision to sign with the Cubs did tonight.  Unless Kenny Williams: Ninja GM returns with a vengeance, we're relegated to reruns for the indefinite future.

We've already seen the top remaining center fielders left in the free agent market, and they're probably not going to be as good the second time around.

1. Aaron Rowand (seen it).

Unless Rowand decides to kiss some more unprotected fencing or another dirt bike track, he still has a lot of good baseball left in him.  He provides Gold Glove-level defense up the middle and has shown the capability to fill the Triple Crown categories.

On the other hand, he’s also shown the propensity to be below average at the plate just as often, and while maybe he was trying to compliment a friend, I’m a little frightened by how much he preferred Greg Walker’s methodology even though it didn’t produce results in 2005.

I like him better than Torii Hunter, but five years is still a scary proposition.  I suppose it’d be interesting to see how fans respond to Rowand if he’s making four times the money he did the last time around, and the Sox are topping out at 78 wins.

2. Mike Cameron (seen it).

He’s a low average hitter who strikes out a ton, which means he would fit in pretty well.  It also means he wouldn’t be that much fun to watch, although he’d probably get decent results.

I suppose two years would be OK, I guess.

(On a tangent, whenever I think of Cameron is a Sox uniform, my first memory is his role in the White Sox charities commercial during the mid-90s.  He stood in the middle of a group of kids, and the commercial ended with a close-up of Cameron pleading in a severely doleful voice, “Won’t you pleeeeeeeeeeease help?”  To this date, I don’t know if I can think of a sadder-sounding guy.

So what I’m saying is that if Cameron comes back, I want those commercials back, too.)

3. Kenny Lofton (seen it).

Yeeeeeeeeep.  It’d be too kind to call Jerry Owens a poor man’s Kenny Lofton at this stage.  More accurately, he’s probably a poor man’s 41-year-old Kenny Lofton.  But Lofton isn’t the guy to put his team over the top, so there’s no reason to spend the money on him.

The only guy who’s happy about this development is the guy who owns Owens’ Baseball-Reference.com page, but it’s hard to find a more attractive alternative.  There’s always the outside chance that Williams ropes in an Alex Rios or somebody else out of thin air, but that’s rooting against a trend that’s a solid 1 ½ years in the making. 

I have to say, it’s just a little discouraging that all signs point to watching the same program we watched three months, three years or last century, while flipping to Cubs games to see if we were right to covet Fukudome. 

At this point, maybe we should root for the Sox to shave a couple dollars off the ticket prices or parking.  Or at least have parking lot attendants who don’t think they’re doing you a favor by letting you park on gravel.  We'd be seeing something new that way.

Waiting for Fukudome

Ever get the feeling that this offseason is merely the newest interpretation of Waiting for Godot?

Imagine Kenny Williams as Estragon and Ozzie Guillen as Vladimir on the side of the road, waiting for a guy who will make their lives meaningful.  It works in a few different ways:

No. 1: Word of his appearance ends up unsubstantiated.  At least once, and perhaps twice, Williams and Guillen have been led to believe the Sox's version of Godot was coming, only to find out that he's not.

No. 2: They don't know what he looks like.  Vladimir and Estragon couldn't agree about Godot's physical traits; meanwhile, the Sox's primary target has shifted from African-American to Venezuelan to Japanese.

No. 3:  Their thoughts often turn morbid.  Kenny offered an honest appraisal of life in the American League to USA Today's Bob Nightengale:

"If I ever leave this job or if I ever get fired," Williams says, "I'm not coming back to the American League. I'm going to the National League. You've got a fighting chance over there."

I'm expecting Samuel Beckett to write the ending, too.  Soon, I fear, Williams and Guillen will receive word that Godot will not be coming that day either, and Kenny will end up with his pants around his ankles.

Waiting for Godot has been described as the play "where nothing happens ... twice."  That seems like a good summary of the White Sox's offseason to date.  If nothing else, I've had the urge to hang myself with my belt watching all this unfold.  Anywhom....



In your daily Kosuke Fukudome update, the San Diego Padres are making a hard charge for Fukudome, having lost Milton Bradley to the Texas Rangers.  The Sox, meanwhile, continue to hover on the periphery.  I like Ozzie's quote:

"He's a great player," Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said in Nashville. "Some people say he's between Ichiro and one from the New York Yankees, (Hideki) Matsui. That's a pretty good combo."

One of those "people" is Lou Pinella, and these quotes crack me up because it's basically the equivalent of saying that a player is somewhere between Jason Bay and Carl Crawford --  two vastly different players with vastly different purposes on a big-league club.

If anything, Fukudome seems to be sort of an Alex Rios, with a little less speed and a better eye.  They'll hit for a good average and a decent amount of power, strong defense in right field with the ability to handle center.  But, of course, Rios isn't Japanese, so they're nothing alike.

Speaking of Rios, Joe Cowley reports that the Sox have an interest in his services, but they don't have the pieces to match.  I think that ship sailed last year, when the Blue Jays were reportedly looking for a No. 2-3 starter for Rios, and the Sox had a guy or two that could fit that description. Nothing ever materialized, so who knows how much of that was true.  Either way, the Sox were better trade partners then than they are now.

A couple of other links:

*At the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe dubs Game 4 of the 2005 World Series as the sixth-best Game 4 in World Series history.  It's actually tied for No. 5 in the article, but he admitted an oversight and put the 1957 World Series' Game 4 in that spot.

*Fox Sports' Dayn Perry calls the Scott Linebrink signing the second-worst signing off the offseason so far.  The top slot goes to the Houston Astros for Kaz Matsui's three-year deal. 

Kosuke cleared for landing ... but where?

Kosuke Fukudome is making the leap from Japan to the big leagues, thus beginning a week that could make or break any hope the Sox have for contending in 2008.  If Kenny Williams snags him, he'll at least provide a reason to tune in.  At most ... well, Fukudome could be very good, but it'll be the pitching after Javier Vazquez that makes the difference either way.

If he doesn't ... yikes.  Even if he were to dust off his thinking cap and action pants, the lack of prospects or desirable contracts have him hamstrung.

Chris De Luca maintains the Cubs have the upper hand, hopefully similar to the way the Sun-Times said the Sox had the inside track on Torii Hunter before Thanksgiving weekend.  But since we've already talked Fukudome to death, I'd like to instead focus on the last two paragraphs of De Luca's column:

As for [Ozzie] Guillen, he is facing bigger issues that should raise the Sox' ante for Fukudome.

''[If] we start the season not hitting, one thing I worry about is the players start looking at each other's faces and battling each other,'' Guillen said. ''I think our ballclub has to forget what they did last year and just think about what they're going to do this year.''

Given that the current makeup of the club is almost exactly the same as last year's, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Sox hitters don't dive into a downward spiral if they stumble in April.  Remember what Greg Walker said in June?

"If there was a magic answer, we have enough smart people in this room where we would have been able to figure something out," Walker added. "I said it all year. I saw it in the guys' eyes early this year." [...]

"As a group, this has been a very frustrated locker room. What you get out of that is bad results, and that's exactly what we are getting. But if you give into it, this game won't feel sorry for you. It has a long history of if you feel sorry for yourself or get frustrated, it piles on. It will bury you. That's what happened to us."

(Note: If you read the article, you'll see not one, but two references to "swagger.")

Not only is Walker still here, but I don't think I'm wrong in saying that Kenny Williams' two major additions could make the Sox lineup so uptight, two-thirds of it could eat coal and crap  diamonds.

If the Sox somehow land Fukudome, Carlos Quentin, who is so hard on himself that he needs a counselor to take the load off, replaces Jerry Owens, AKA the Californiest guy on the team now with Jon Garland in, well, California.  Orlando Cabrera is considered an intense vocal leader, and would take the place of Juan Uribe, depicted as upbeat or flaky, depending on who's talking.

There's no reason to jump to conclusions in mid-December, but I'm a little concerned that this weighs on Ozzie's mind right now.  If nothing else, because he's treading on my turf.

The Podsednik Paradox: Part II: 2006



On the surface, there's an incredibly easy explanation as to why the Sox struggled so much with Scott Podsednik out of the lineup during the 2006 season: left-handed pitchers.

Of the 41 games Scott Podsednik didn't start, 39 of them were against southpaw starters, including the first 37.  Pods didn't miss a game with a righty on the mound until Seattle's Felix Hernandez started against the Sox September 23.  Pods also missed the last game of the season against Minnesota's Carlos Silva.

The White Sox finished the year 59-38 against righties, and 31-34 against lefties.  That alone creates a gigantic gap.

However, this answer raises an even tougher question -- how on Earth do you explain this difference in records:
  • Sox against lefties w/o Pods: 14-25
  • Sox against lefties w/ Pods: 17-9
The answer isn't in the first place we looked last time:

Replacements:  In 2005, no matter who Ozzie Guillen replaced Pods with, he couldn't get even a replacement-level performance in his place.  That's not the case in 2006, due in large part to Pablo Ozuna's first half.  Here's the breakdown, and their total is stacked against Pods' stats in the 26 games he started against lefties:

Player
AB
R
H
XBH
RBI
BA
OBP
SLG
Ozuna
138
15
58
14
13
.340
.381
.464
Mackowiak
20
1
8
0
0
.400
.429
.400
Gload
8
1
1
0
0
.125
.125
.125
Sweeney
4
0
2
0
0
.500
.500
.500
Total
170
17
58
15
13
.341
.377
.441
Podsednik
107
19
25
5
14
.234
.300
.308

In place of Podsednik, Ozuna, Rob Mackowiak, Ross Gload and Ryan Sweeney combined to put up what basically equates to Ichiro Suzuki's career line (.333/.379/.437).

Yet, despite reaching base nearly half as much (36 times, to 68 for the above foursome) and collecting less than half the hits, Pods beats them in both runs and RBI.  I may have an answer for this, if you read on.

Pitching, for and against:  Unlike 2005, when the pitching lines were roughly the same whether or not Podsednik started, there is a sizable difference in the 2006 numbers:
  • Sox starters, with Pods: 779 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.18 K/9
  • Sox starters, w/o Pods: 263 IP, 5.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.02 K/9
The numbers aren't easy to reconcile, aside from the strikeout rates.  Javier Vazquez started four games that Pods didn't in September, over which he struck out 45 over 29 1/3 innings.  Otherwise, while Mark Buehrle was the worst pitcher in the second half and Jose Contreras wasn't great, either, Sox starters actually performed far worse in the first half during the games Podsednik didn't start:
  • First half: 97 IP, 6.22 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.82 K/9
  • Second half: 166 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.72 K/9
However, the Sox went 6-9 without Pods in the first half, and 9-17 in the second.  That said, I think we're getting closer to the most significant reason.

Johan Santana, once again, is part of the equation, too, except he has company this time.  The Twins ace was one of three AL Central lefties who absolutely tormented the Sox in 2006 -- Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia and Detroit's Kenny Rogers were the others.

The Sox went 4-12 in games started by that trio -- 3-1 in games Pods started, and 1-11 in the others.

What's especially funny is that in those four games, Pods was 1-for-15 with two walks.

Streaks? Slumps? Injuries?  Guillen deployed a straight platoon in left field for nearly the entire second half.  Of the 26 games he started against left-handed pitchers, 21 came before the All-Star break, mainly because Pods couldn't do anything with the bat after it.

The problem was that everybody else's numbers slipped, too -- especially against left-handed pitching.  Here's how the splits break down:

Player
First half vs. LHP
Second half vs. LHP
Podsednik
.253/.316/.345
.150/.227/.150
Replacements
.429/.463/.524
.290/.327/.393
Thome
.257/.382/.394
.207/.316/.317
Konerko
.379/.463/.709
.250/.310/.457
Dye
.393/.486/.750
.284/.370/.545
Pierzynski
.299/.349/.377
.234/.246/.250
Crede
.314/.355/.529
.222/.323/.481

Pods actually had far more plate appearances against lefties than all the bench players combined in the first half (98 to 68), and that edge probably explains the edge he had in runs and RBI as mentioned earlier.

After faring an acceptable 20-16 against left-handed pitching in the first half, the Sox sank to 11-18 in the second.  Pods just happened to not be around for most of that.

The first half pitching line when Pods didn't play as mentioned above, however, doesn't correlate with the overall numbers in any way I can find.  Unless the guys on the mound felt extra confident with Pods patrolling left, those numbers appear to be merely random fluctuations.

So what do we know?  In 2005, Pods was one of only two players with an above-average OBP.  As a result, it's easy to see how his presence could help the Sox win many a tight game.

No such luck in 2006 -- best I can tell, Pods' most distinguishable feature was his left-handedness.

That's not to say that he didn't make a difference with right-handers on the mound.  He had a .386 OBP against righties in the first half, as opposed to .300 in the second, and that drop-off was a big reason in the team's declining performance against righties as well.  That certainly could back up the claim that as Podsednik went, so went the White Sox.

At the same time, Rob Mackowiak sported a .384 OBP against righties all year long.  Had Brian Anderson made a better first impression, or had Ozzie viewed Ross Gload as a viable alternative in left, Pods might've been a benchwarmer when he stopped being an effective leadoff man.

When you factor in his stats with his subpar defense and struggles on the basepaths, it's a gigantic leap to say the team was a mess whenever Pods wasn't in the lineup. It's probably safe to say that Ozzie deserves more credit for Pods' record than Pods does, because he happened to pick the right days for Podsednik to sit.

Season's Meetings: Day 4: Comic relief and the Rule 5 Draft

I implore you to check out Carl Skanberg's latest Smells Like Mascot.  It could very well be my favorite one yet, although time usually helps decide such matters, so I'll hold off for now.

But hell, let's list the rest of 'em.  Since the winter meetings ended with a whimper, it's not like there's much else to discuss.  Unless you want to dwell on some more hard-to-swallow rhetoric.

Below are my top eight comics from Palehose 7 and Palehose 6 (no Smells Like Mascot, since that ruins the nice little run of numbers I have going).

No. 8: An inspirational message.

I was pulling towards the one where Darin Erstad's cloud of dirt steals Jermaine Dye's pants, but instead opted for the one that captured the glory of a grinder.

It also gave birth to a catch phrase that would've caught on if Erstad were any good.  His loss:



No. 7: Tiki.

The first-ever reference to Ed Farmer, and I think the giant stone monument depicts his personality and perspective pretty well.  Proclaims ancient proverbs, hard to move, won't change with the times, etc.

(Though I did like the cadence of Farmer when he was reincarnated as a chaplain later on.  Yeah.)

Chris Singleton, as always, is just kind of there, not making a difference, not really trying to.



No. 6: Arm Lumps.

The use of "turd" makes me laugh. 

I'm not exactly hard to please.











No. 5:  Over?

What gets me about this one is that it was published in Sept. 19, 2006.  At that time, Pods was carrying a second-half line of .234/.294/.288, and, along with Jim Thome's back, was one of the biggest reasons why the offense scuffled after the All-Star break.

From the date of this strip on, Pods' line was .248/.300/.368.  So what appeared to be a setup line in the penultimate panel ended up being fairly prophetic instead.

By the way, I'll be continuing the look into the Podsednik Paradox next week, after which I'll write his eulogy and give him the send-off he deserves.




No. 4: Platoon in center.

This strip came right after a night in which Rob Mackowiak misplayed a Grady Sizemore flyball into a triple, and Brian Anderson sat on the bench with a .164 batting average.

'Nuff said.




No. 3: Captain Hand returns to Earth.


I've always wondered if these drink specials are available in the Bullpen Sports Bar.

If they aren't, I don't know what they're waiting for.









No. 2: Work it out.

Speaking of sinking feelings, I'm pretty sure we're going to be able to recycle this one next year.  God help us if there's another cold spell.

The only difference is that Joe Crede won't be the third one suffering.  Fields won't be a likely replacement in this instance, because Walk is still letting Josh Fields be Josh Fields, as far as I know.








No. 1:  Burning down something beautiful.


I know how he feels.  If nothing else, it's a good transition back into reality...

***********************

...yes, reality,
where the Sox watched the Oakland A's take Fernando Hernandez in the Rule 5 Draft.  Scouting director Alan Regier explains the loss:

"He's a 6-foot, right-handed pitcher, who throws strikes and gets people out," said White Sox Minor League director Alan Regier of Hernandez. "There were not any hickeys with him. He's healthy. He's got good makeup.

"However, we felt when we looked up at our board and had to make the decision on the 40-man between the Dewon Days and the Adam Russells and the group of guys we had coming up, we felt that [Hernandez] fell short of our projections on the 40-man. He's healthy, and we wish him the best."

If you're looking for silver lining, Oakland also selected Jay Marshall from the Sox at this time last year.  That one didn't end up hurting the Sox so much, unless you thought the 2007 bullpen needed a worse version of Boone Logan.

Also lost in the Rule 5 Draft:
These four picks will likely create the biggest impact in the name department:

Liotta leaves the Sox after a disappointing decline, robbing South Side fans the chance of watching roughly 50,000,000 people rush to be the first on their block to make the "Ray Liotta's on the White Sox???" joke.  His poor 2006 was blamed partially on Hurricane Katrina's effects on his family, and then he lost 2007 to shoulder surgery.  He'll join fellow underwhelming former Sox farmhand Tyler Lumsden in the Royals system.

Rodriguez gives me a little relief, because it look me a long time to keep my Winston-Salem Rodriguezes straight.  Ryan was the 23-year-old lefty who gave up a ton of hits as a starter before improving his hit and strikeout rate in relief.  Derek Rodriguez was the 24-year-old semi-undersized righty who proved to be durable and effective, although pretty old for his level.  He posted a sub-3.00 ERA through the middle three months of the season, spanning 94 innings.

Roberts was introduced to me as Pedro Jest.  His skill set wasn't bad, but there was a reason he was 24 and still in High-A ball -- his abysmal walk-to-strikeout deficit.  At one point, he had five walks compared to 62 strikeouts over 263 at-bats, and he finished with an equal number of free passes and HBPs at a dozen apiece.

Bakker doesn't have much of a name, but he is a 24-year-old sinkerballer who managed decent numbers after joining the rotation (2.80 ERA, 7.24 H/9IP over 54 2/3 innings).  However, he doesn't appear to get enough grounders to see much of a future in him.

The Sox did add a player to the roster via the Rule 5 draft -- reliever Santo Luis from the Houston Astros' system.  He struck out 99 over 75 1/3 innings in A-ball, but also gave up 12 homers over that stretch.

This segment of the Merkin article should give you a lot of hope:

Luis possesses a power arm, with a fastball up to 94 mph. White Sox scouts like his velocity and, with help on his delivery, figure to get a few more strikes from him.

If Don Cooper lines up his patients alphabetically during spring training, Luis will take his turn after Logan, and before Nick Masset.

Season's Meetings: Day 3: Eastern front quiet; Kenny not

The third day of the winter meetings brought no news for the White Sox, as a number of teams await Kosuke Fukudome's