My offseason plan centers on one guy –
Bill Hall.
Without him, I settle for
Juan Uribe at short and go on an extensive search for an outfielder. But if Doug Melvin would take
Jon Garland for the Milwaukee utilityman, the options grow considerably more entertaining, because he can hold down three positions – center field, shorstop and third base.
(Technically, he can hold down four, but I’m considering
Danny Richar a lock at second. He showed enough -- and Aaron Cunningham was too costly a price -- to think otherwise.)
Instead of settling for a
David Eckstein at short and
Torii Hunter at center and paying handsomely for their declines in the process, Hall’s presence could afford the Sox time to trade their way towards an upgrade. Possible candidates at each position:
Center:
Sox blogger offseason plans:
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Coco Crisp: Theo Epstein is asking for the moon right now –
the San Diego Union-Tribune said the Padres would need to surrender
Chase Headley, which isn’t happening. With Hall and
Josh Fields able to hold down the hot corner but play other positions as well, there’s no rush to deal
Joe Crede. The Sox could play the waiting game.
Johnny Damon: Same deal, except he’s a worse fit, so the Sox could demand the Yankees to pay more of the $26 million owed to Damon over the next two years. He gets on base, can run, hit double-digit homers and track a flyball reasonably well, but his arm makes
Scott Podsednik look like
Roberto Clemente.
Chone Figgins: The Sox could plug him in at the top of the order while providing insurance for
Danny Richar as well. They’d finally have an excellent baserunner.
Any of these guys in between
Jermaine Dye and
Josh Fields would work well. And
Jose Guillen is still an option (more below).
Shortstop:Khalil Greene: Former Sox beat writer Nate Whalen mentioned
Khalil Greene as a No. 2 hitter, although it would take Garland to get him. They’re looking for a center fielder of the future – I wonder if
Ryan Sweeney would intrigue them. It’d probably help if Sweeney could manage one friggin’ double in Arizona.
Jack Wilson: Two things happened to gum this one up – he hit like the dickens in the second half, and the Pirates dumped Dave Littlefield and hired a new GM. With Littlefield at the helm, it wouldn’t be out of the question to offer
Jerry Owens straight-up.
Orlando Cabrera: If
Alex Rodriguez ends up in Los Angeles, the Angels may need to reallocate resources. Cabrera, at a salary of $9 million, could be moved, and the Sox would appreciate his glove and a bat that keeps pitchers honest.
CONTINGENCY PLANIf Hall can’t be pried loose for
Jon Garland, then free agency seems the easiest route to upgrade the outfield.
Here’s my preferred order of outfielders:
1. Jose Guillen. Guillen came up in
an assessment of Torii Hunter a couple days ago, and while they’re very similar players, they each have inherent pros and cons. Guillen can be a hothead, and also tends to miss a dozen or two games a year for various aches and pains.
On the other hand, Guillen’s questionable walk-to-strikeout ratio is bolstered by an inordinate number of hit by pitches, which he’s made a repeatable skill. Add in his tremendous arm and good speed, and that would reduce the number of triples
Jermaine Dye gave up last year.
He’s not considered in the class of the next three, so he should receive a shorter, cheaper deal for a similar kind of production. Would three years, $30 million do it?
Then you shift Dye over to left, and let
Jerry Owens,
Ryan Sweeney and
Brian Anderson battle it out in center.
2. Kosuke Fukudome. If he could produce along the lines of
Hideki Matsui, but with more speed and better defense, he'd be worth every penny. Usual caveats about foreign players with no MLB experience apply.
3. Aaron Rowand. The safe choice, PR-wise.
4. Mike Cameron. He's older and will miss the first 25 games next year, but that should make him cheaper.
5. Torii Hunter. He’s older than Rowand.
6. Andruw Jones. Would never happen.
At this point, here’s your lineup:
- CF - Owens – L
- 3B – Fields – R
- DH – Thome – L
- 1B – Konerko – R
- LF – Dye – R
- RF – Guillen – R
- C – Pierzynski – L
- SS – Uribe - R
- 2B – Richar – L
I think this is enough offense to win, since it’s basically going to come down with a better performance from the starters and bullpen, anyway. The defense up the middle and the improvement in right will help them out.
Of course, this is only the rock bottom lineup, and could be re-arranged in various ways based on the assortment of possibilities listed above. For instance, if there is room for both Hall and Guillen, you can bat Hall second and Fields down in the order. Crisp, Damon or Figgins would bat leadoff, and so on.
In this scenario, where
Joe Crede is not enough to get
Coco Crisp, he’s shuttled off for relief help.
Scot Shields is a popular name, but the Angels would have to be awfully down on him for his 7.36 second-half ERA for that to happen.
BENCHLocks:Needs:- Fourth outfielder
- Backup shortstop
- Backup first baseman
Fourth outfielders are easy enough, whether it’s
Brian Anderson/
Ryan Sweeney or a free agent like Jeff DaVanon.
If Uribe's option doesn’t make financial sense, the shortstop issue is tougher, but here’s wondering if
Ben Zobrist is available for an average bullpen arm.
I try my damndest to bring
Ross Gload back in the fold – not only is he a great defensive replacement at first, but he can hit at the top of the order as well.
PITCHING- Mark Buehrle
- Javier Vazquez
- Jose Contreras
- John Danks
- Gavin Floyd
Danks is the biggest question mark to me, but trading him at this point would be selling low. He’s a cutter away from being far more reliable, and he’s got a hell of a role model in
Mark Buehrle ahead of him in the rotation. I think any extensive effort to move Danks would reek of desperation.
Jack Egbert,
Charlie Haeger and Gio Gonzalez can also take their cracks at a rotation spot.
BULLPENAs it stands:
- Bobby Jenks
- Matt Thornton
- Ehren Wassermann
- Mike MacDougal
- Boone Logan
- David Aardsma
Jenks and Wassermann earned their spots, and Thornton’s hard to replace, even if he had a lousy 2007. Logan has the stuff to be a lights-out LOOGY, and I’d give him a spring to earn it.
The last two or three spots is where it gets dicey, because Aardsma and MacDougal are out of options. I like Aardsma better, personally, but the Sox have less invested in him. He could be intriguing to a team like Tampa Bay, in the aforementioned Zobrist idea.
The free agent pool is thin, but if I had to hand a two-year, $6 million deal to any of them, it’d be
Luis Vizcaino. The Hindenburg was a key part of the Yankee bullpen down the stretch last year, striking out a batter an inning in the second half.
I’d also consider it a failure if I didn’t end up with a Japanese candidate – the risk seems minimal.
If I had to go into the season with:
- Jenks
- Thornton
- Vizcaino
- MacDougal
- Wassermann
- Logan
- Japanese reliever
I’d feel as good about that any other realistic possibility.
EPILOGUEOne guy who I didn’t mention dealing was
Paul Konerko. I’m not opposed to shipping him out, but I think any deal involving Konerko would be selling low at this time. At the trade deadline, his contract will be halfway through, and if he’s hitting .275/.360/.510, I think more teams wouldn’t balk at that line for $30 million over two and a half years.
At the same time, his price tag isn’t holding the Sox back, and they don’t have anybody to step in and replace his production. If Konerko’s presence means Chris Carter can take his time and develop, I’m all for it.
Anyway, I'm exhausted. At the minimum, I tried to create a plan that foresees repercussions from moves unrelated to the Sox and reasonably raises the payroll without adding additional albatrosses. Feel free to poke holes in my hours of work.