Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - Posts

You can never have too much pitching, so why bother?

And now, the other side of the coin...

Joe Cowley reports that the White Sox and Torii Hunter could agree on a contract within the week.  Plenty of bytes have already been consumed to express displeasure at this notion, and if Cowley's sources come through again, we'll have plenty more time to do so.  So far, Hunter has refuted the claim, so let's bypass this for now.

Hunter and Orlando Cabrera represent upgrades of enough significance that, when combined with bounce-back seasons by Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, represent a playoff-caliber offense.

Problem is, depending on who you believe, that's only 10 to 50 percent of the battle.  If the Sox are trying to get back to "pitching and defense," the former half of that equation resembles the 2000 division-winners more than the 2005 edition.

Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez are the only relatively sure things on the staff.  Jose Contreras is coming off a 17-loss and toyed with a 6.00+ ERA through August, John Danks wore down and Gavin Floyd has a ways to go before he shakes the "mental midget" label.  Lance Broadway is off to a good start, but Gio Gonzalez and Jack Egbert have as many major-league wins as Scott Ruffcorn.

So that's roughly one more proven starter than the 2000 Sox had (if you can count Mike Sirotka, maybe giving half-credit to James Baldwin), but the offense scored more than six runs a game.  As it stands, Hunter would be the only guy on the 2008 Sox to crack the 2000 team's everyday lineup, not counting Paul Konerko against himself.  There's simply no comparison.

Let's not forget that the AL Central only had two contenders back then, too, compared to the four-horse race it is nowadays.

This being the case, I don't see how Kenny Williams can honestly plan towards World Series aspirations with the pitching staff in its current state.  Garland's absence leaves a giant void, one that the Cabrera upgrade may not even offset.  I'm trying my damndest to not write off their chances, but I don't see a solution to the Sox's current issues that don't require a carpetbombing of the free-agent pool, something the Sox obviously can't afford.

Unless they shell out money for Bartolo Colon (who's a "cheap" target for probably a dozen teams) or think they can fix Jeff Weaver or Kyle Lohse (they can't), the only other option is a trade.  Dontrelle Willis or Scott Kazmir would surely put a dent in the Sox's 2010 plan.

No matter how you slice it, Williams is entering a dangerous game of Wack-A-Mole -- for every problem solved, another one opens up.  He seems intent on crushing the moles, maybe because breaking the game is the only way to keep problems from popping up.

I still haven't talked much about Garland, but that's what the eulogies are for.  One's on the way, maybe as soon as tomorrow.

A short stop, or an extended stay?

As a type B free agent with underwhelming peripherals and an an expiring contract, Jon Garland wasn't going to get much in return.  Ideally, you'd want to find a team that's desperate enough like the Astros were last year, when they picked up Jason Jennings for Wily Taveras, Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz. 

But then again, there's a reason why Tim Purpura doesn't have a job anymore, so Orlando Cabrera and cash for Garland is not an awful deal.  In this respect, the Cheat summed it up nicely:

Digging a little deeper, the deal appears to be Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera, $4-6MM in added payroll flexibility (I haven't heard a dollar amount yet), and (as long as Cabrera stays healthy) an extra 2009 draft pick (between 16-75). That's not a bad little haul in what originally looks like a 1-for-1 swap.

Plus, you can't rule out the possibility that Garland injured his rotator cuff or labrum while surfing, running from brush fires or however else Californians waste their time [/joecowley], so maybe Tony Reagins was the first one to offer him a deal today and Williams screamed "Spread it on!" suspiciously fast, loud, and accompanied by shifty eyes.

There's only one issue --  I can't imagine a situation in which the Sox allow Cabrera to leave as a free agent.  Three reasons:

No. 1:  For better and for worse, Cabrera is Ozzie Guillen's kind of player.  Cabrera has speed (averaging 22 steals over the past seven years), a 2007 Gold Glove, doesn't whiff a lot and can lay down the bunt.  At the same time, he needs batting average to prop up his on-base percentage and is 33 years old.  That's Ozzieball.

No. 2:  The "E" word.
  Can't ignore this line in Toni Ginnetti's article: "Williams said Cabrera and his wife 'are as excited as any player I’ve ever talked to about coming to the White Sox,' adding he will bring 'that edge' Williams considered missing among some last season."

No. 3:  Williams seems opposed to one-and-done.  There have been some exceptions early in Williams' GM career -- David Wells, Bartolo Colon, Carl Everett the first time -- but he normally doesn't make draft picks a priority when acquiring players these days.

That said, I don't envision this trade being Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera, cash and a draft pick, rather Garland for Cabrera, cash and a one-year exclusive bargaining window.

Should this be the case, the question then becomes "What does Cabrera deserve?"

He's entering the final year of a four-year, $32 million deal given to him when he was a 29-year-old slick-fielding shortstop with 10 or more homers in four of the past five seasons.  Three years later, he's still the same offensive player -- homers are down, but his OPS+ has fallen in the same range when he was in his 20s.  He's still got the glove and the speed.

I imagine any decrease in his salary would be nullified by inflation, so three years, $24 million would probably be in the ballpark.  That's a price the Sox would pay, in my opinion, since Cabrera will make Ozzie's job easier and the Sox are at least three years away from producing a major-league shortstop.

Cabrera doesn't come with injury baggage or conditioning issues, but he's not the most patient player.  When he starts slowing down and the infield hits stop coming his way (he averages 15 or so in a good year), he may have a hard time justifying the final year of that deal.  Then again, considering the contracts handed to the Sox's other over-30 players, the tail end seems to be the least of Williams' concerns.