Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

I've long advocated that the Twins not pursue Hunter in free agency, even before it became apparent that he'd probably command a 5 or 6 year deal at about $15 million per.  Two years ago, this was a no-brainer -- you let Hunter walk.  Over the last season and a half, though, it's a little easier to be lulled into the idea of breaking the bank for Hunter.  I wouldn't do it.

Hunter's positives are apparent.  He has been an excellent defender and rightfully deserved most of the Gold Gloves he's gotten.  He is fearless, he's got a good arm, and he catches balls that he gets to.  He's made a ton of highlight reel catches.  At the plate, he's got good power and his numbers are pretty good (but not great as I will show below) for a center fielder.  He'll almost certainly deliver 25+ home runs for several years, providing he stays healthy.  He's not too patient at the plate, but you have to live with that.  When Hunter isn't aggressive at the plate, he suffers.  He's hacktastic.  That's who he is, and you can't change him, nor do you want to.  He had a great start in 2007 and he said a bunch of crap (Torii talks out of his behind a lot) about being more patient and more selective.  But, he had a near career low in pitches per plate appearance and walked just 40 times, and just 30 unintentionally, in 650 plate appearances.  He was swinging at everything.   That's what he does best.

While he's been a great defender in the past, I'm not so sure that's the case any more.  According to the Hardball Times, his Zone Rating is in the lower half of AL center fielders -- and the Metrodome is not spacious like, say, Comerica Park.  In fact, I've seen Hunter repeatedly beaten on balls in Detroit.  Granderson is covering a lot more ground than Hunter does.  Furthermore, I'm not all that impressed with Hunter's decision making ability.  In 2006, he was playing through a stress fracture in his foot and it's my contention that he was the worst center fielder in the American League defensively.  The problem wasn't just that he couldn't get to balls, it was that he couldn't admit that he couldn't get to balls.  As a result, he took a lot of incredibly bad angles on balls that resulted in singles turning into extra base hits.  If you recall, he made a ridiculous attempt in game 2 in the ALDS on a ball that should have been a single and he misplayed it into an inside-the-park home run.  That play was shocking to the baseball world in general, but not to those paying attention closely.  Torii was simply not adjusting to his diminished capacity.

Like I said above, Hunter is a hacker.  I really don't think he can approach hitting any other way.  When he's tried to be patient, he's foundered.  When he's just hacked, he's hit a lot better.  As he gets older, I don't see him compensating for his inevitable decline in quickness at the plate.  Barry Bonds (all possible "enhancements" aside) didn't succeed by hacking, he's got the best eye in baseball.  By contrast, noted hacker Sammy Sosa aged remarkably quickly (again, all possible "enhancements" aside).  Torii is more Sammy than Barry, although he's not as good as either.  Not by a long stretch.  In fact, I mentioned that he was pretty good for an up-the-middle defender, but after 2002, when he had the 2nd best VORP in the AL for centerfielders, he's been 11th, 6th, 5th, 6th, and 5th in the same group.  That hardly screams superstar.  And if his defense really is middle of the pack now, well...

Plus, there is his mouth.  Widely regarded to be one of the good guys, he's nevertheless taken his shots at teammates.  In 2005, he called out both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the paper, questioning his toughness.  In September 2005, while on the DL he visited the clubhouse and took a swing at Morneau.  Again this year, he questioned Mauer's toughness in the newspaper.  He gets kid gloves treatment in the Minneapolis press, but I think if he gets to a big market, especially, say, New York, he's got the potential to turn into Bobby-Bonilla-with-the-Mets.  Well, maybe not that bad, but I'm pretty sure that there are more than a few quality players in the Twins clubhouse that might have a going away party for Torii -- and not invite him.  And future collisions at the plate between Hunter and Mr. Mauer might result in a shin guard to the groin.

I certainly recognize that Hunter's a very good player, and I'm being tough.  But, somebody's about to pay him $90 million.  I'd never do it and the Twins will be idiots to hand him that kind of money, given the other talent on this club that is younger and better and needs to get paid.  On a big club with a lot of money, he'll be a nice piece for probably a couple of years.  But, I don't think he'll age well and by the end of the contract, he could be an albatross.

Hunter has said he loves playing at U.S. Cellular Field, where he has hit nine home runs since 2004 and made his share of highlight-reel catches at the center-field wall, and would seem like a perfect fit with the Sox.

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Hunter would seem to make sense at $15 million a year if the sides can work out the number of years. He already reportedly turned down a three-year, $45 million offer from the Twins because he wanted a five-year deal.

For those who think Hunter was foolish to turn down 3/45, I think you are grossly underestimating today’s market. A National League scout told me yesterday that 5/75 million was a low estimate for Hunter, and that he expects him to get $90 million, probably from the Yankees. Asked who he’d rather have Hunter or Andruw Jones, the scout said Hunter, adding that it isn’t even close.