Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Regrettably, it's Hunter season

If you're the type that believes in omens, you're not going to like this excerpt from a USA Today article:


That's a comforting thought, considering Wallace was 32 years old when joining the Bulls and a year later finds himself missing a lot of action in late-game situations.  I already fear that Hunter, who is 32 himself, will age as poorly as his top comparable players -- do neutral sources need to rub it in further?

Hunter, will also meet with the teams he already expressed a desire to play for, and the Kansas City Royals as well.  I wouldn't count out Dayton Moore, who surprised a lot of people last year by handing a five-year, $55 million deal to Gil Meche -- and he has to be pleased with Year One.  I'd like to hear why Hunter might want to play for the Royals, though I got his back if he states Arthur Bryant's as his main reason.

One name that hasn't been mentioned nearly enough in comparison: Kosuke Fukudome, who has officially filed for free agency.  I rated Fukudome as my second most-desirable free agent target in my offseason plan, and he's probably No. 1 with the steroids cloud surrounding former preferred choice Jose Guillen.

The Chicago Tribune's free agency overview story illustrates my reasoning:


I'll argue to the death that "leadoff hitter" is not a position, but the lack of one illustrates how sorely the Sox need to boost their on-base percentage.  When Luis Terrero finishes the year with the third-highest OBP, something is horribly awry.

The problem is that Hunter does not help that situation, and this is the easiest way to explain it:

• Average AL OBP in 2007: .338
• Number of times Torii Hunter has matched or topped a .338 OBP: Zero

Rowand at least has two seasons with an OBP above .360 under his belt -- but I'm a little wary that he's going from a hitting guru (Charlie Manuel) to a hitting... clown, for lack of a better word.  The last time he was paired with Greg Walker, he enjoyed his worst injury-free season ever and grounded out to short a heckuva lot.  At least he gets hit by a ton of pitches (he's finished second in the league each of the last three years) which buoys his OBP even if he reverts to "Rowand 6-3."

Still, when you size up these two candidates to Fukudome, who has posted OBPs of .400 or higher in four of his last five seasons for the Chunichi Dragons, I'm underwhelmed.  Here's how he stacks up against the other two Japanese superstar outfielders who have taken their games to America:

Player	Exp.	G	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	AB/HR
Kosuke Fukudome	8	993	3583	.306	.393	.545	179	599	20.02
Ichiro Suzuki	9	951	3619	.353	.421	.522	118	529	30.67
Hideki Matsui	10	1268	4572	.304	.413	.582	332	889	13.77

(Thanks to Dugout Central for the numbers, which Wiz at South Side Sox pointed me to.)

Even if you give Fukudome a line similar to Matsui's semi-disappointing debut with the Yankees -- .287/.353/.435 with 16 homers and 42 doubles -- he'd be a much better fit than anybody else mentioned when factoring in his excellent defense and solid speed.

The Sox don't need another happy hacker who will rack up 40 walks and 100+ strikeouts -- they're already starting Jermaine Dye and Josh Fields, and Juan Uribe cleared triple-digits in strikeouts as well last year while only walking 32 times.  They need more guys who will make pitchers work, and right now, Jim Thome and a non-horribly-slumping Paul Konerko are the only guys who fit that bill.

Fukudome has the penchant to strike out, but Matsui also regularly topped 100 whiffs in a season during his Japanese career.  Since coming to the U.S., he's averaged only 86 over 162 games.  It's in no way fair to assume Fukudome will replicate Matsui's successes in every way -- or even any way -- but he certainly stands a better chance of getting on base than his American free-agent peers.  The 100 walks per 162 games has to mean something.

This isn't to say that the Sox wouldn't have their reasons to pursue Fukudome.  He's coming off elbow surgery and scouts have a lot more video and anecdotal information that could help tell how much success he'd have against MLB pitchers.  Far be it from me to assume I know more than they do.

But at this time, given what we do know, it's discouraging to hear only whispers of White Sox interest in Fukudome compared to the roar of the Hunter parade.  Unless Kenny Williams is operating in stealth mode -- or unless the warning flags on Fukudome are too great a deterrent -- it seems like he's still hung up on grit and grinding and guts and swagger and not enough on finding players who avoid making outs.