Ken Rosenthal adds
a little more fuel to the Miguel-Cabrera-to-the-White-Sox fire:
For the White Sox to acquire Cabrera, they probably would need the Red Sox to re-sign third baseman Mike Lowell, the Angels to balk at moving second baseman Howie Kendrick and the Dodgers and Yankees to focus on pitching instead.
In the admittedly unlikely event that all of that took place, the White Sox then would need the Marlins to accept a package of, say, left-hander Gio Gonzalez, third baseman Josh Fields and center fielder Jerry Owens.
Such an offer probably would be too light, but perhaps the Sox could acquire additional prospects for right-hander Jon Garland in another deal.
I still say this has roughly a 1 percent chance of happening, and that it's more wishful thinking from the Cabrera camp than anything else. But considering that
Andy Gonzalez's craptacular season was yesterday's subject, it's not like there's much else to talk about. And this one is more fun, anyway.
First, if this were to happen, here's how I imagine Cabrera and Juan Uribe arriving to the Cell every day:
Now, with the obligatory conditioning jokes out of the way, let's try to answer the big question:
Would Cabrera help the Sox win immediately enough for such a trade to be worth it?Let's operate under two assumptions:
- Rosenthal's suggested package would get the job done -- Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, Jerry Owens/Brian Anderson and the haul for Jon Garland.
- The Sox probably aren't going to be able to keep Cabrera after two years.
After that trade, here's the lineup (rearrange it however you'd like):
- Danny Richar 2B
- Miguel Cabrera LF
- Jim Thome DH
- Paul Konerko 1B
- Jermaine Dye RF
- A.J. Pierzynski C
- Joe Crede 3B
- Anderson/Owens/Sweeney CF
- Juan Uribe SS
| - Mark Buehrle
- Javier Vazquez
- Jose Contreras
- John Danks
- Gavin Floyd
|
The Sox might be able to add a proven center fielder to the mix, but Cabrera is expected to earn somewhere in the $12 million range for 2007 after arbitration. That's what Garland is slated to make, so they cancel each other out. But the need to keep Crede in the fold is an extra $5 million, and all signs indicate the Sox aren't looking to add an extra $10-15 million on top of that.
.
That lineup could win, but a lot of things would have to go right, such as:
- League-average 180 innings apiece from Danks and Floyd (or Jack Egbert, etc.)
- Development from Richar or the center fielder of your choice.
- Bounce-back years for Konerko, Dye and/or Crede.
- A decent year from the bullpen.
Then, in 2009, Crede won't be in the picture. Cabrera, assuming he's in shape, could move back to third, but the Sox will be lacking both a shortstop and an outfielder at the very least. Cabrera will get another salary hike. You have significant age concerns with the other guys earning $10+ million -- Konerko, Dye, Thome, Contreras and possibly Buehrle. After the season, Dye, Thome and Cabrera are free agents.
To me, it doesn't seem like the right time to go after Cabrera, given his contract situation. However, if the Sox were to ever splurge on a free agent, Cabrera in 2010 would be downright ideal. Here's a stab at a possible 2010 roster (feel free to swap names of equivalent position prospects):
- John Shelby? - CF
- Paul Konerko - 1B (final year)
- Josh Fields -- 3B
- Chris Carter? -- DH
- Danny Richar? -- 2B
- Ryan Sweeney? -- RF
- Sergio Miranda? -- SS
- Francisco Hernandez? - C
- ? - LF
| - Mark Buehrle
- Javier Vazquez (FY)
- Gio Gonzalez?
- Jack Egbert?
- John Danks?
- Gavin Floyd?
- Aaron Poreda?
|
Sure, that vision is counting on quite a bit of minor-league development, but it also doesn't include any useful medium-priced veterans that Williams may stumble upon. What we do know is that Williams can clear a lot of payroll with only a moderate amount of success developing prospects.
I can't forsee a situation where Cabrera is locked up before his free agency in 2010. He's too great of a hitter to not test the open market. Unfortunately, I also can't forsee a situation in which Jerry Reinsdorf would want to pay $25-30 million a year for a player, but Cabrera -- assuming he hasn't eaten himself out of elite status -- is the once-in-a-generation talent worth the money, and still in his prime.
That's what the Angels got when they splurged on Vladimir Guerrero to the tune of five years and $70 million, and he's carried the team on his back and given his front office time for complementary players to develop from within. Cabrera is an even more polished hitter than Guerrero, and he'll be younger than Vlad when he hit free agency after the 2003 season.
Plus, two things could uniquely work in favor of the Sox:
- Ozzie Guillen's presence could knock a little bit off the price tag.
- Reinsdorf might actually prefer an opt-out clause.
The latter point is a neat wrinkle -- the Sox could theoretically sign Cabrera to a 10-year, $300 million contract, but only have to pay for half of it. After the fifth year, Cabrera might be able to get more money from another team, and the Sox might want to go in another direction, and the two sides could split amicably. After the way Reinsdorf benefited from Albert Belle's opt-out clause, I'm sure he'd love to give it another spin.
Of course, Cabrera could get hurt or age poorly, and the Sox would be hung out to dry -- but I think the next two years will go a long way in seeing how Cabrera matures. It seems to me that the Sox would be better off waiting those two years while building a young, modular team instead of wedging Cabrera into an awkward roster and crossing fingers -- and not to mention sacrificing two or three important pieces in the process.