posted on Friday, November 02, 2007 1:41 AM
by
Jim
Hunter in the sights of Williams' love gun
The briefing of The Bill James Handbook 2008 will be put on hold until this weekend, since none of the bookstores around here carry it, or even plan on carrying it. That means I'll have to drive out to Cooperstown on Saturday, which is where I found it last year. So sorry for that.
That said, I'll still do my damndest to make this a Coco Crisp-free post.
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A different outfielder took the forefront today -- Torii Hunter,
who will meet with Kenny Williams next week.
Here's what Joe Cowley says:
Hunter has said he loves playing at U.S. Cellular Field, where he has hit nine home runs since 2004 and made his share of highlight-reel catches at the center-field wall, and would seem like a perfect fit with the Sox.
[...]
Hunter would seem to make sense at $15 million a year if the sides can work out the number of years. He already reportedly turned down a three-year, $45 million offer from the Twins because he wanted a five-year deal.
The number of years might not be the only issue,
according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Joe Christensen:
For those who think Hunter was foolish to turn down 3/45, I think you
are grossly underestimating today’s market. A National League scout
told me yesterday that 5/75 million was a low estimate for Hunter, and
that he expects him to get $90 million, probably from the Yankees.
Asked who he’d rather have Hunter or Andruw Jones, the scout said
Hunter, adding that it isn’t even close.
That last sentenced surprised me a little bit, but then again, Hunter still looks pretty lithe out there in center. Jones, on the other hand, has gotten pretty... voluptuous, to put it one way. Barring any drastic change in training routines, Hunter seems a better bet to hold down his current position five years from now.
Still, $90 million is a lot for the decline years of a guy who isn't known to put teams on his back. Making matters even scarier is his list of his
10 most comparable players:
- Carl Everett -- Done at 35
- Preston Wilson -- Hit a wall at 31, barely a major-leaguer at 32
- Phil Nevin -- Retired at 35
- Juan Encarnacion -- Career jeopardized at 31 due to freak foul ball accident.
- Jose Guillen -- Oft-injured, but resurgent at 31.
- Jacque Jones -- 87 OPS+ last year at 32.
- Geoff Jenkins -- Playing time reduced at age 32, but still productive
- Bobby Higginson -- Power vanished at 32.
- Larry Hisle -- Had career year at 31 in 1979, but tore rotator cuff in '80
- Leon Wagner -- Retired at 35
Baseball-Reference.com says
his career path most similarly resembles Jermaine Dye's. There's no point in letting
that scare us, since the Sox are already signed up for two years and $23 million more of that action, with one of those years protected by a no-trade clause.
The story with that list is pretty easy -- these guys don't have favorable walk/strikeout rates, so when the physical tools erode, they don't have the strike zone knowledge to keep pitchers honest. The banged-up Dye we saw in the first half this year could easily be the full-speed Dye two years from now, and that was hard to watch.
Hunter has managed good health, aside from the ankle injury he suffered in 2005, and his wheels are still there. But five years is a hell of a gamble for the type of player who historically hasn't had the skill set to compensate for aging.
If I had to go after a veteran center fielder (I still don't think it's smart for this team), I'd rather go after
Mike Cameron, who can still cover center at age 34 and will require a shorter, cheaper contract -- especially since he'll miss 25 games at the start of the 2008 season for
testing positive for stimulants. Perhaps he won't need them if he stops
showing up to games drunk.
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More news:*In that Cowley article, he states the Sox are likely to pick up Juan Uribe's option and try to lure David Eckstein to Chicago. That's pretty much the sum of all fears right there.
*The Padres
declined the $3.25 million option on Rob Mackowiak. He's coming off a double sports hernia operation.
*Joey Cora is
in the hunt for Pittsburgh's managerial opening -- and one of his competitors is Joel Skinner, who may have cost the Cleveland Indians a trip to the World Series with an ill-advised stop sign at third base. Cora looks pretty good by comparison.