The Hall of Fame
announced the new candidates for the 2008 ballot, and only one name stands out -- Tim Raines.
If it were up to me, Raines would be a first-ballot enshrinee. He's better than any position player on the ballot, and I don't believe in making people wait unnecessarily. They don't sort the Hall by how many votes a player received, or how many years it took him to gain entrance, so why bother putting on airs?
(Plus, as Rod Beck's presence on this ballot proves, anybody can go at any time, and wouldn't it suck if a player died the year before writers felt it was OK to let him in!)
At any rate, Raines is going to be a tough sell for a number of reasons:
- He falls short of major milestones (3,000 hits, .300 average, etc.)
- He peaked early in his career, relatively obscurely in Montreal, and his lasting impression is one of a valuable role player.
- Walks aren't properly valued yet.
And then there's the cocaine thing, which he seemed to have overcome in a big way but still may be held against him.
But if I were trying to combat these notions, here's how I would make the case:
Part I: He ranks 40th all-time in times on base.Of all the HOF-eligible players on
the list ahead of him, only one is not in the Hall of Fame -- fellow Expos great Rusty Staub, who had roughly 800 more plate appearances over his career. He also ranks ahead of 3,000-hit club members Tony Gwynn, Lou Brock and Nap Lajoie.
Part II: He's possibly the best baserunner in baseball history.Raines finished with 805 stolen bases, good for fifth all-time. However, his 84.8 percent success rate is the greatest of any player with more than 300 attempts.
Part III: Add those two parts together......and what you get is a very valuable player for quite a long time.
Plus, Raines lost a couple chances to add to his counting stats due to unique circumstances. He missed a chunk of time due to collusion in '87, right in the middle of his prime. At the end, he lost a couple years of twilight play to lupus. Considering he came back from the disease at age 41 and walked 18 times to only six strikeouts in 76 at-bats, he probably could've done some damage in the two years prior.
While it's doubtful Raines will come close to the 75 percent needed to make the Hall, he definitely needs to make a big dent. Rickey Henderson will be on the '09 ballot, and Raines' totals will take a hit since he pales in comparison. I don't quite understand why that will cost Raines votes, but that won't stop it from happening. I'm all for "tip of the cap" votes that ensure a player will receive more than 5 percent, but I don't quite get how a player's vote total can ebb and flow significantly several years into his candidacy.
And to copy and paste
my post from last year, here are the remaining guys with White Sox ties:
Harold Baines:
He'll be an interesting case, if only because there hasn't been a more
prominent player on the ballot who spent most of his career as a
designated hitter. There was nothing wrong about Harold in the field,
but his knees couldn't handle it. From 1987 on, he rarely played the
field, and that will probably kill his chances.
The sad thing
is, if he were maybe 5 percent more durable, he would've topped 3,000
hits, and I'm sure he would've had 16 more homers to hit 400. Then the
electorate would've had a true dilemma on its hands, because if they
vote for career over peak, Harold would've met a couple key
milestones. There are only
eight players in the history of the game with 3,000/400, so it would've been hard to keep Baines out of the Hall.
Instead,
2,866/384 doesn't look nearly as impressive considering his
non-spectacular rates (.289/.356/.465) and his lack of peak. He had
one brilliant season -- 1984, when he hit double-digits in doubles,
triples and home runs and led the league in slugging (the only time
he'd finish in the top 10). Otherwise, he never came close to winning
a batting title, home run crown or any other major offensive category.
Then
again, Harold never had a bad season, even in his injury-shortened
campaigns (I'll cut him some slack for his Age 41 & 42 seasons).
Solid batting averages, solid walk/strikeout rates, solid power numbers
year after year. The only true blemish is his durability -- he only
played in 150 or more games in four out of his 22 seasons, which
doesn't help him considering he didn't play the field for a majority of
his career.
According to the numbers, the only true comparison to Baines is
Tony Perez,
who is a Hall of Famer. But Perez had four edges on Baines -- a
defensive position, a clear peak (1969-70, with five laudable seasons
thereafter), two World Series rings, and he's friends with Joe Morgan.
Baines probably won't have as many people stumping for him because he
was too damn quiet. It's not a good sign when your organization
retires a guy's number and nobody understands why. Of course, that had
a lot to do with the fact that Harold was
still playing, but nothing good came of it.
At
any rate, Harold had a fine career, and I'd vote for him if only to
keep him around the ballot. If he peaks at 50 percent of the votes,
that'd be a fair tribute.
Goose Gossage: He began his career as a White Sox, had a dominant 1975
season as a reliever before being converted into a starter, where he
was below-average. Then
Bill Veeck dealt him to Pittsburgh with
Terry Forster for the best season of
Richie Zisk’s life and
Silvio Martinez. That season under
Chuck Tanner was the last time he would ever start a game.
It’s hard to say why Tanner started him, but it’s easy to understand
why Veeck dealt him – Veeck was running out of money, and he couldn’t
retain Gossage. Zisk was the centerpiece of the memorable 1977 South
Side Hit Men; Gossage only pitched one year in Pittsburgh before going
off to New York and starting his HOF resume.
Gossage should deserve to make it, but he likely won’t be inducted this
year. I’m guessing his telling the New York Post, “God couldn't get out
of some of the situations that I was brought into” didn’t win any
points with Him or the HOF voters (who often confuse themselves with
Him when it comes to voting), since it kinda insults both of them.
Tommy John: The former radio candidate for the Sox pitched on the South Side early in his career before he became famous for
Tommy John
surgery. John was a .500 starter, though more because of the teams he
was on than his actual ability. He never had a below-average ERA with
the Pale Hose, and once posted a 1.98 ERA over 25 starts in 1968,
though that was also the same year
Bob Gibson posted a 1.12 mark and
Denny McLain won 31 games, so there you go.
As was the case with Gossage, the Sox traded a possibly HOF-caliber
pitcher for a hitter who provided immediate results. He was dealt to
the Los Angeles Dodgers for
Dick Allen,
who promptly won an MVP for the White Sox in 1972 . John performed well
with the Dodgers for two years before having his elbow worked on by Dr.
Frank Jobe. After taking the 1975 season off, he worked his way back
into the league in 1976 and then averaged 20 wins a season from
1977-1980.
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Worth reading: The Cheat uses the power of ESPN Insider to find out what some baseball executives are saying about the Scott Linebrink signing (which isn't official yet, he writes, fingers crossed).
Basically, they're saying
the same things we said about the Scott Linebrink signing (which isn't official, he writes, fingers crossed). Hooray, us.