Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

A hill of Beane

Carol Slezak is such a tease.  Or maybe the copy editor who wrote the headline of her column is the guilty party.

Whatever was the case, I saw "Sox become Beane counters: Deals for cheap young pitchers reminiscent of small-market A's" and became excited.  Since every Chicago columnist weighed in with the exact same sentiment to deals that have several sides, I thought this was the column that would shake things up a bit.

Nope.  Although to her credit, she takes a more muted approach with her criticism, which I appreciate since nobody knows how these deals will turn out yet, and there is a logical thought process behind them.

Unfortunately, when she introduces the argument I've been waiting to hear, it never materializes:



Wait, Carol!  Didn't you see how Hudson and Mulder performed last year?  Based on what the former aces did last year, it's hard to say Beane misses them.

Hudson:  Beane whiffed when Charles Thomas and Juan Cruz never panned out for them, but at least he won't be on the hook for $25 million over the next two years for a starter who posted a 5.00 ERA in the National League and just allowed a career-high amount of homers.  The two previous seasons, he missed 14 combined starts.  So there's injury concerns and performance concerns here.

Mulder:  This was a fleecing.  Mulder was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year thanks to arm woes -- and the Sox saw that first-hand last year during the first thrashing of the Cardinals.  And while Mulder pitched well in 2005, the guy Beane received from St. Louis, Dan Haren, pitched even better.  Plus Oakland received a quality bullpen arm (Kiko Calero) and a hell of a hitting prospect (Daric Barton) on top of it all.

Compare:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K
Mulder	22-15	4.74	298.1	336	38	105	161
Haren	28-25	3.93	440.0	436	57	98	339

Haren's been 50 percent more durable, and a far better pitcher during those innings as well.  He's also three years younger and due to make $18.45 million over the next four years.  In other words, it's an absolute victory for Beane, so why it's used against him I have no idea.

This is exactly what Williams is shooting for.  He's hoping the Sox get two quality arms for one on the decline (Freddy Garcia).  He's hoping John Danks can at least match Brandon McCarthy's production and Nick Masset or Jacob Rasner's contributions make it look even better.

Slezak is missing the point when she writes:


It's not that all of them have to succeed for Williams to cash in.  In reality, he only needs three: Danks, one of Gonzalez/Floyd, and one of Sisco/Aardsma.  If three pitchers succeed, then it means that Kenny made wise moves -- he lost no talent while freeing up resources in the process.

Of course eight pitchers aren't all going to turn into quality major-leaguers -- that's precisely why he's stockpiling arms, to insure himself however he can against failure or misfortune.  If three succeed -- that's less than half -- Kenny comes out on top.  Now if four, five, six of them make it, as Hawk Harrelson would say, Kenny's sitting in the catbird seat.

Yes, Williams is taking a gamble, and it could cost him a chance at winning it all in 2007.  It could also have no effect on next season while helping the Sox gear up for 2008 and beyond.  That's why these moves are so fascinating.  Unfortunately, the city's columnists would rather only get angry.

One more point:


Wait a second...

Oakland's playoff record with Hudson and Mulder: 0-4
Oakland's playoff record without Hudson and Mulder: 1-1