posted on Saturday, August 11, 2007 3:06 AM by Jim

...and sometimes, the percentages play you

Big thanks to Mark Gonzalez for asking Ozzie Guillen about his curious decisions to decline sending Jerry Owens on Victor Martinez's watch in crucial late-game situations not once, but twice.  Ozzie's response, from the Trib's Hardball blog:

"I don't know how good the percentage Owens is going to be safe (16-for-19 entering play Thursday). Fields is the second hitter, I got my third and my fourth hitter right behind him. If I move the guy over just because I feel I have a lot of confidence, I already have that game tied and have nothing to lose."

"The percentages, you never know. I'd rather play safe than feel sorry. I played safe twice and safe don't work, well, it's not my fault."

"I understand (the questions), but Owens isn't Rickey Henderson. He's a kid and he might get thrown out or have a bad jump. You see Owens steal second and third with two outs and have Konerko hitting? Those are the little things you have to worry about."

...I want to play safe. Besides that, Konerko and Dye are swinging well and that's what we're going to do."

A few counterquestions:

1) The Sox are out of it, so why is there a need to play it safe?  It's not like Ozzie's job is on the line, and at some point, it'd be helpful to find out whether or not Owens can steal a base on a weak-throwing catcher when the whole stadium is expecting him to run.

2) Nobody can guarantee Owens would've made it safely, but considering he and Scott Podsednik, the team's only two stolen-base threats, easily stole second off Martinez on first pitches earlier in the game/series, Owens would've had to fall on his face for it to backfire.  And if that happened, Ozzie wouldn't have been to blame.

3) If Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are hitting so well, then they have an above-average chance of re-starting a rally if the worst-case scenario occurs before them.

4) OK, let's say we give Ozzie a pass the first time around, because the first step (Fields bunting) worked, and the Sox merely missed out on the other two chances to drive home the run.  Two separate forces were working against each other -- one saying that playing it safe again would work out, the other saying that Josh Fields, a slugger, wouldn't be able to put down bunts in consecutive games.  At that point, isn't a straight steal of second on a bad catcher and a pitcher who can't hold runners somewhere in between?

The whole series of events reminds me of two quotes. 

One is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 

The other is Lewis Black's theory on the cause of aneurysms.  He has his.  I now have mine.

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The Cubs claimed Scott Podsednik on waivers, and the crosstown teams will have the weekend to hammer out a deal.

I'm not entirely sure why the Cubs are interested, because they already have a surplus of inconsistent, injury-prone, left-handed outfielders.  Nevertheless, let's see if I can guess the A-ball reliever Kenny Williams might bring back in return:

Matt Maradeo.  Why?  Because he's a 24-year-old pitching in Peoria, and the Sox are trading Scott Podsednik.

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Juan Uribe is in the midst of his annual "Get on my shoulders, get off my back" stretch.  Over the last eight games, he's not only put up a quality line of .310/.379/.724, but he's delivered a few of those big hits in big situations:
Throw in flashes of creative playmaking, and it gives Kenny Williams a bit more to think about when he has to decide if it's worth picking up Uribe's $5 million option for 2008.

I think it's a little too early to decide, but I can think of one team that might pounce on him if he becomes available -- the Toronto Blue Jays. 

They entered the season with Royce Clayton, one of the only possibilities clearly worse than Uribe, as the starter.  That didn't work out, and now they're relying on John McDonald to hold down the position during a playoff push, and he walks less than the Torpedo Boat.

Uribe might not constitute an upgrade for the Jays in and of itself, but when you consider that he would be reunited with Frank Thomas playing north of the border, perhaps the Hriniak connection would help untap the potential that has driven the Sox brass batty.

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Minor league round-up:
  • Charlotte 3, Richmond 1
    • Lance Broadway had one of his best outings of the season, allowing only one run over 8 1/3 innings.  He allowed five hits and two walks, and struck out five on 103 pitches.
    • David Aardsma finished the game by striking out the last two batters.  He allowed a hit, but stranded the only inherited runner he had.
    • Ryan Sweeney went 1-for-4 with a run scored in his return to the lineup; Alex Sanchez, Jason Bourgeois, Kenny Perez and Casey Rogowski had two hits apiece.
  • Birmingham 6, Huntsville 2
    • Ryan Wing struck out six over 5 2/3 innings, allowing only one run on four hits.
    • Adam Russell gave up the other run, but Oneli Perez worked two scoreless innings for the save.
    • Chris Getz went 4-for-5 with two runs scored; Dave Cook hit his sixth homer in eight Double-A games.
  • Winston-Salem 6, Potomac 4
    • Fautino De Los Santos picked up where he left off in his first High-A ball start -- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.
    • New addition Jon Link made it interesting by allowing three runs in the ninth inning.
    • Paulo Orlando went 4-for-4 with three runs scored; Robert Hudson, Javier Castillo, Rod Allen and C.J. Lang had multi-hit games.
  • Kannapolis 6, Lake County 1
    • John Shelby hit a two-run homer, his 10th of the year; Lee Cruz went 1-for-2 with a triple, walk and two RBI, and Chris Carter hit his 27th double.
    • Jason Rice allowed only one run over five innings, but he walked five.
    • Justin Edwards pitched three shutout innings of relief, striking out four.

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